Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 290811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
411 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Deep mid/upper level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley will
continue to move east and lift out to the northeast today with
general troughing setting up over the eastern U.S. this weekend.
This trough will slowly shift east and eventually out into the
western Atlantic Ocean early next week with ridging building over
the central and southeast states. At the surface high pressure
well out in the Atlantic Ocean will ridge west southwest across
the Florida peninsula today then weaken over the weekend and move
out as the next area of high pressure moves across the eastern
U.S. early next week.

For today we`ll see another active thunderstorm day similar to
Thursday as the light southeast to south winds will become onshore
with the sea breezes combining with plenty of moisture in place.
Highest rain chances will generally be over inland areas during
the afternoon and evening then convection will wind down later
this evening with partly cloudy skies later tonight.

On Saturday we`ll have a rather light and variable low level wind
flow with a decent sea breeze developing and moving well inland
during the afternoon and evening. There will still be plenty of
moisture for scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening, but highest chances will generally extend
from inland southwest Florida north northeast across the interior

By Sunday the surface ridge axis will shift south into south Florida
allowing a more southwest to west flow to setup across the region.
There will still be enough moisture in place for isolated to
scattered convection during the afternoon and evening away from the
immediate coast, with highest chances over the eastern half of the
Florida peninsula.

For the first half of next week it still looks like an increasing
east to northeast flow will setup as the second high builds in from
the north bringing some drier air into the area. This will begin to
limit convective coverage with best chances mainly south of the
Interstate 4 corridor and near the west coast.


Scattered to numerous convection is expected to develop this
afternoon and evening causing some MVFR/local IFR conditions along
with brief gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
generally light southeast to south winds becoming onshore near the
coast this afternoon.


Relatively benign conditions are expected across the waters through
the weekend with the main hazard being isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms which will be capable of producing
locally gusty winds and rough seas. Early next week a breezy east
to northeast flow will setup with winds speeds approaching
exercise caution criteria.


Sufficient low level moisture will keep relative humidity values
above critical levels through the weekend with no Red Flag
conditions expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  75  89  75 /  50  20  30  10
FMY  91  74  88  74 /  60  50  50  10
GIF  91  72  89  72 /  80  40  60  10
SRQ  89  74  88  74 /  40  10  20  10
BKV  90  70  90  71 /  60  20  30  10
SPG  88  75  89  76 /  40  10  20  10


Gulf waters...None.


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