Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1130 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook for eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas...

...Flood risk is near average for the mainstem Arkansas River in west
central Arkansas...

...Flood risk is above average for eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas...

The potential for flood conditions in eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas will be above normal this spring, except along
the mainstem Arkansas River in west central Arkansas where the
flood potential is near normal. Wet antecedent soil conditions
warrant a raised risk for spring flooding. Flooding in eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas usually occurs in response to
specific heavy precipitation events. However, the Arkansas River
may flood in response to upstream conditions.

Precipitation totals and soil moisture are generally above normal
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The precipitation
total for the last 90 days ranges from 90 percent to 150 percent
across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Soil
moisture across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas is currently
above normal, although the most significant above normal anomaly
is in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Reservoir storage in Oklahoma is near design conditions. U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs
currently have almost all of their flood control storage
available. Eastern Oklahoma lakes have about 92 percent of their
flood control storage available. In northwest Arkansas, Beaver
Lake has approximately 25 percent of its flood control storage
available.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the 28-day streamflow
conditions range from above normal (76th-90th percentile) to much
above normal (greater than 90th percentile) for this time of year
across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

The February 20, 2020 Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Spring
Outlook (March-April-May) indicates there is an increased chance
for above normal temperatures south of I-40, and equal chances
for above, near, or below normal temperatures north of I-40 in
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook also
indicates increased chances of above median precipitation for
western Arkansas, and equal chances for above, near, and below
median precipitation for eastern Oklahoma.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2020 indicates no drought in
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The CPC Seasonal Drought
Outlook of February 20, 2020 indicates eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas should remain drought-free during the next
three months.

For the latest river stage information, forecasts, and warnings, please
visit our website at www.weather.gov/tulsa
River stage and forecast data can be obtained by selecting the Rivers
and Lakes link.


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