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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131553
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1153 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy west winds continue today in between strong low pressure
over Quebec, and high pressure along the Gulf coast. The high
slides off the southeast coast on Sunday, bringing dry and very
warm conditions to the local area. A weak backdoor cold front
passes through later Monday, and is forecast to lift back north
as a warm front on Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible Tuesday afternoon, with dry and warm conditions
expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Saturday...

The latest WX analysis indicates strong occluded low pressure
(~988mb), slowly weakening across Quebec, with relatively strong
sfc high pressure (~1027mb) centered across the Gulf coast
region. Mid/high clouds from earlier this morning have
dissipated and with deep mixing now underway with a strong
pressure gradient in between these 2 features, winds have become
quite gusty to 35-40 mph across the The pressure gradient is
forecast to gradually relax somewhat later in the afternoon, so
the winds will be at their highest through early afternoon, and
should drop off modestly after 18Z (though still gusting to
25-35 mph through late aftn). With a westerly low level flow,
downslope will help boost high temperatures a few degrees above
the typical cool bias that the NBM shows this time of year,
highs will mostly reach into the lower 70s W of the Bay and S of
I-64, with upper 60s to the NE.

Winds should further diminish after sunset, so given the dry
airmass in place, lows should be able to fall into the low-mid
40s for most of the area, with upper 40s along the immediate
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

The upper flow turns more zonal for Sunday as thicknesses build over
the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern also favors warmer temps through
the week. At the sfc, high pressure also situates over the
southeast CONUS. SW winds Sunday will be lighter (compared to
past two days) but still gusty to 20-30 mph in the afternoon
hours. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80, except in the low-
mid 70s on the eastern shore. A weak perturbation passing
through the OH River Valley will also allow for an increase in
mid/high clouds, especially in the later aftn Sun into Sun night
and Monday. Lows Sun night will also be much milder: in the
upper 50s/low 60s. Monday will be even warmer with most areas
likely to see one of the warmest days so far this year. The
current forecast has low- mid 80s for most of our VA and NC
counties with upper 70s on the eastern shore. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some upper 80s in NE NC. As mentioned before,
continued high clouds should keep the sky mostly-partly sunny.
Also cannot rule out a very brief shower with a moisture-starved
frontal boundary dropping S through the area. Coverage should
be low (20% of less) given low sfc moisture. Overnight lows Mon
look to be in the 50s.

The flow turns weak over the area Tuesday as ridging gradually
builds over the area. WPC progs and model guidance show the
remnant boundary from Monday lifting back N Tuesday, bisecting
the FA (roughly paralleling I-64). Light easterly flow is likely
NE of the boundary and S/SE flow SW of the boundary. Thus,
there may be a decent gradient in highs Tuesday. Mid 80s are
forecast well away from the coast over inland NE NC and SW
portions of the FA. Highs may stay in the mid 70s close to the
coast with even some upper 60s possible on the Atlantic side of
the eastern shore. The other thing the mention is model
soundings show a decent amount of sfc-based instability
(500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) along and SW of this boundary with
some higher dew points likely to pool where the warmer temps
reside. Therefore, there could be some pop-up showers and
thunderstorms S of I-64 given the boundary nearby. Have painted
a broad 20% PoP for most of VA, with 30% PoPs mainly SW of
US-460. Given very weak shear, no severe wx is expected. Lows
Tue night in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Low pressure is forecast to lift ENE through the upper Midwest
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into
the southern states. It`ll be slight cooler Wednesday (around 80
degrees) with increased clouds and a slight chance of showers
across the N/NW. Thursday has trended a few degrees cooler as
global models now show less in the way of ridging over the area.
There still is a good deal of variability among the ensemble
guidance, however. Instead of mid-upper 80s, NBM now suggests
lower 80s (with a few mid 80s possible across the far S).
Deterministic guidance is even cooler and in the upper 70s. The
cold front moves toward the area Friday with a chance for
showers and possibly thunderstorms. PoPs are only around 30% at
this time due to 1) models showing the front losing moisture E
of the Appalachians and 2) differences among when the front
actually crosses the area. Cooler Friday with afternoon highs in
the low-mid 70s. Overnight temps will remain on the mild side
and in the 60s Wed night and 50s Thu night. There is a decent
signal of temps trending even cooler for next weekend,
potentially into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR expected through the period. BKN-OVC cloud deck (CIGs
~20k ft AGL) noted across the NW half of the area this morning
with SKC across the SE. Clouds gradually clear by later this
morning/early aftn (lingering at SBY the longest). Winds as of
12z are 10-15 kt. Winds become gusty again later this morning
and aftn with gusts to around 30 kt possible. Winds subside
this evening to 5-10 kt and eventually become light late
tonight.

Outlook: Dry/mainly VFR for Sunday into early next week with
lighter, but still gusty, SW winds. Isolated showers/storms
possible both Mon and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis shows low pressure well to our north with a
secondary cold front approaching the waters from the west. Winds are
W-SW at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and will remain gusty through
late this aftn w/ SCAs continuing for all the waters until 4-7 PM.
Winds become W 20-25 kt (with gusts to around 30 kt) this morning
through early aftn behind the above mentioned cold front. The
highest winds will be on the tidal rivers due to mixing over
adjacent land areas. Similar to yesterday, a few gusts to 35 kt are
possible here (and potentially on the west side of the Ches Bay/near
the immediate Atlantic coast as well).

Sub-SCA winds return tonight through most of Sunday as high pressure
settles over the southeast CONUS. SW winds may then briefly increase
again to 15-20 kt (w/ gusts to 25 kt) Sun night into Mon morning
ahead of the next front. Local wind probs for 18 kt winds have
increased to 70-90% on the bay for a few hours Sun evening-Sun
night. That (weakening) front is forecast to drop through the area
late Monday into Monday night, with winds turning to the NE and then
to the E-SE on Tuesday (generally staying sub-SCA through this
timeframe given that it is a weakening front).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1130 AM EDT Saturday...

Afternoon relative humidities will drop to 20-25% for most area
this afternoon (25-35% on the eastern shore). Breezy conditions
are also expected with wind gusts of 30+ mph during the time of
the driest conditions. While these values meet/exceed IFD
thresholds, recent rainfall is likely to preclude any significant
fire wx concerns.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 625 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages/Headline Summary:

1) The Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended until 2 PM for
Currituck Co. NC and VA Beach for soundside flooding.

Gusty W-WSW winds continue across the region. Tidal departures
have fallen significantly across the upper bay/ocean. However,
water levels remain above minor flood thresholds in/near the
Back Bay area of VA Beach and have been falling...but at a very
slow rate...over the past several hours. Water levels should
fall just below minor flood thresholds by late today, and have
opted to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ017-102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...RHR/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ