087
FXUS61 KALY 092331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
731 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With a muggy air mass still in place, some showers will
spread across southeastern areas for tonight.  With a frontal
boundary and upper level disturbance nearby, scattered thunderstorms
are expected on Thursday and storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.  It will remain warm and muggy for
Friday through the weekend and some additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, especially on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday with
  the primary risks being damaging wind gusts. In addition,
  thunderstorms may contain heavy rainfall, which may lead to a
  threat for poor drainage or urban flooding.

Discussion:

As of 218 PM EDT...Stalled surface boundary is situated just
south of the region over the northern mid-Atlantic States. While
it`s still fairly warm and muggy over the region, dewpoints are
slightly lower compared to recent days with our area on the
northern side of the boundary. Through this evening, a few
isolated showers can`t be totally ruled out, but limited forcing
should keep it dry for most areas, as the bulk of the activity
through this evening will be occurring well south over the mid
Atlantic States. After a warm afternoon, temps will be falling
into the 60s for this evening into tonight.

Overnight, there may be some additional showers that impact
southern and eastern areas (mid Hudson Valley and western New
England) as leftover convection over the mid Atlantic States
lifts northeast for the late night hours. There could be some
heavy downpours with this activity, although the 12z SPC HREF
doesn`t show very high probabilities for rainfall greater than
1" per hour at this time.

On Thursday, the boundary to the south will be lifting northward
as a warm front. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will be
sliding across southern Canada and will be located over eastern
Ontario by the afternoon hours. With a warm and humid air mass
in place and enough breaks of sun, there should be decent
instability with about 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. 0-6 km bulk
shear is around 30 kts earlier in the day, but will be falling
into the 20-25 kt range by later in the day. CAMs suggest some
scattered convection is expected and steep low level lapse rates
will help promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Overall, storms
won`t be overly organized and may be limited in coverage and
strength, but a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out.
SPC has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms. With the
high PWATs, relatively slow storm motion and high dewpoints,
there could be some heavy downpours and isolated flooding
(especially in urban and low lying areas) will be possible.
Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny on Thursday with highs in
the 80s once again.

Storms will diminish with the loss of daytime heating on
Thursday evening, allowing for a quieter overnight period with
lows in the 60s. The front looks to settle back south of the
area for Friday into Friday night. Some additional showers are
possible during peak heating on Friday, but any showers look
fairly limited in coverage. A rumble of thunder can`t be ruled
out but no strong storms are expected. Temps will continue to be
similar to the past few days with highs well into the 80s in
valley areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Typical summer weather is expected for the weekend into early
next week. Have stayed closed to NBM POPs through the extended
period with the best chances on Sunday and Monday thanks to an
approaching upper level disturbance. Greatest coverage will
likely be during the usual diurnally-forced afternoon and
evening hours. There could be a threat for some stronger storms
on Sunday or Monday, although the exact amounts of shear and
instability are still unknown at this time.

Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day
in valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly
humid through the period with dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z/Fri...VFR conditions will continue to start the TAF
period, then some leftover rain showers associated with a
complex over the mid-Atlantic will push northeastward across
the region overnight, mainly impacting KPOU/KPSF. While
cigs/vsbys could remain mostly in the VFR range, some
intermittent reductions to MVFR could occur. Confidence was not
high enough on any shower activity at KALB/KGFL so these TAFs
remained dry. Some MVFR stratus/stratocu could form early
Thursday morning at some sites; otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue into the afternoon hours (except MVFR conditions at
KPSF). Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop Thursday afternoon. PROB30 groups were
introduced at KALB/KGFL/KPSF for this activity. Most of this
activity could stay north and west of KPOU. Light to calm winds
tonight will become southeasterly Thursday at 4-8 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun