089
FXUS61 KALY 081748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring some showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this morning. A prefrontal disturbance and a cold
front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and early evening with a few on the stronger side.
Seasonable temperatures return on Thursday, as clouds increase
and rain moves back in from the south in the afternoon ahead of
a warm front and a low pressure system in the Ohio Valley with
unsettled weather and cooler temps continuing into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 1:00 PM EDT...Warm front continues to slowly
lift north across our region. Portions of southern VT remain in
the 50s, although temperatures across the rest of the region
have reached at least the 60s to 70s, with some near-80 degree
readings in the Mid Hudson Valley. Clouds lingered a little
longer than expected this morning, but now starting to see more
breaks of sun across the region, and this has resulted in a
couple of thunderstorms developing across Herkimer County.

Pre-frontal trough and associated dew point boundary are
currently approaching our western CWA border, and may help to
ignite a couple of showers/thunderstorms over the next few
hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows up to around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE
south and west of Albany, with 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear.
Convection has struggled to initiate so far this morning, but
if any storms do develop over the next few hours then they could
be on the stronger side with some gusty winds and or small
hail. Best chance remains for areas south of I-90 in NY and
western CT and MA. The thunderstorms across Herkimer County may
briefly have some small hail, but should weaken as they tracks
eastwards into a more stable airmass. Will also mention that
winds could become gusty this afternoon behind the pre-frontal
trough, with some gusts of 30-40 mph already seen across central
and western NY. Highs today will be mainly in the 60s to 70s,
with some 80s in the Mid Hudson Valley. Please see previous
discussion below for more details...

.Previous...As the pre-frontal trough tracks through, low-level
convergence along the wind shift boundary will provide enough
forcing for ascent to spark a few showers and thunderstorms.
With the best forcing to our north with an approaching
shortwave, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated to
scattered in nature. However, SPC mesoanalysis and CAMs suggest
that there will be an overlap of SBCAPE of over 1000 J/kg as
mid-level lapse rates steepen to over 7C/km and deep-layer shear
of 50-60 kt. This will allow for a couple storms to be strong
to severe, with the greatest threats being damaging wind gusts
and hail. Greatest threat area will be for areas along and south
of the warm front, which includes the eastern Catskills, Mid
Hudson Valley, and western CT and MA. Timing of any strong to
severe storms looks to be from around noon through 4 pm. Behind
the pre-frontal trough, drier air is advected into the region,
which when combined with the loss of daytime heating should
allow for instability to decrease and limit the overall severe
threat. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms is
expected late this afternoon and evening across the Adirondacks
and Mohawk Valley, but waning instability here should limit the
severe threat.

Temps should rise above normal in the warm sector and due to
some downsloping off the Helderbergs/southern Dacks/eastern
Catskills we could see max temps spike with the southwest/west
flow with the prefrontal trough. Max temps were raised in the
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys with 60s to lower 70s
over the higher terrain. The lower 80s will be near KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The main cold front approaches from the west late in
the afternoon into the early evening. Additional scattered
showers or isolated to scattered thunderstorms will form with
less instability. These storms are not expected to be severe.
The best chance of showers activity will be from the Capital
Region north and west. Cold advection will occur in the wake of
the front with lows in the 40s, except lower 50s from the
Capital District south and east. We did not add any patchy fog
yet due to partly to mostly cloudy conditions and a west to
northwest breeze overnight.

Thursday...the mid level flow becomes zonal over the Northeast
in the wake of the first system. A brief break in the pcpn
action is possible in the morning, but then the old cold front
begins to lift northward again ahead of the next wave ejecting
from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. The isentropic lift
increases again for a period of showers/rain initially south of
I-90 in the late morning/early pm but then expanding northward.
This is all occurring ahead of a positively tilted mid and
upper level trough over southeast Canada, the Great Lakes Region
and Midwest. Temps will not be able to recover from normal
seasonal readings due to thickening and lowering clouds. Highs
will be in the mid and upper 60s in the lower elevations with
50s to lower 60s over the hills and mtns.

Thursday Night through Friday night...A sfc cyclone slides east
from the Mid Atlantic Region/NJ Coast Thu night with scattered
showers persisting due to the upper level low nearby. In the
dank air mass lows will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over
the southern Greens/southern Dacks.

Yet another short-wave impulse rotating around the broader mid
and upper level trough is expected to bring another period of
rainfall on Friday. The differential cyclonic vorticity
advection will help focus the rain during the day and it will
taper in the evening. The coolest day of the week is expected
with cloudy skies and a stratiform cooled atmosphere with highs
a good 10 degrees below normal with mid 40s and mid/upper 50s
over eastern NY and western New England. The rainfall may cause
some ponding of water in a few spots. As the column cools
overnight a chilly rain will taper. A few wet snow flakes may
occur over the southern Greens. Lows will be in the mid 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions with below normal temperatures looks to
dominate much of the long term period, as upper level troughing
persists across the Great Lakes/northeast region. Upper level
disturbances passing through this trough will bring enhanced chances
for showers, which currently looks best on Sunday, however
isolated/scattered showers will be possible Saturday as well.

The upper level trough will gradually shift east of the region early
next week, however an upper level disturbance and associated frontal
system looks to track across the region late Monday or early Tuesday
with additional rain showers possible.

High temperatures will only reach the mid 50s to lower 60s Saturday-
Sunday, although could be even cooler if widespread showers occur.
Overnight lows mainly in the 40s, with some 30s possible across
higher elevations. Gradual warming Monday-Tuesday, with highs
reaching the 60s for many areas Monday, and mid 60s to lower 70s
Tuesday. Overnight lows in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday morning,
although some 30s will be possible across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...Low level stratus clouds have been
stubborn to scour out today, with BKN-OVC cigs finally becoming
SCT in the past hour at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. So VFR conditions
should generally prevail for the rest of the afternoon. A cold
front will move across the region later this afternoon. Widely
scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop ahead of the front
this afternoon. At this time, radar indicating main area for
development has been just north/west of KGFL, so will mention a
TEMPO for MVFR conditions there. Activity looks to be more
sparse at KALB/KPSF, so will mention VCSH for now and monitor
trends for possible additional convection. Any SHRA/TSRA should
remain north of KPOU.

The threat for any SHRA/TSRA should end by early this evening,
with dry conditions then expected. Within the developing cold
advection regime overnight, an increase in low level stratus
clouds may occur. Confidence in coverage/heights is low at this
time, with mainly MVFR cigs anticipated. Cig heights should
increase to VFR levels Thursday morning, but with BKN-OVC cigs
still expected.

Winds will become westerly between 18z-19z and increase to
around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt developing. Winds
could also be stronger associated with any TSRA. Winds will
become northwest this evening around 6-12 kt, then northerly by
early Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Main/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV