Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281832
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist tonight into the start of the
weekend. A weak system will bring scattered showers to the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Temperatures will be cool
on Friday but warm some over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 pm update...

Rain showers has moved out of Delaware, Sullivan and Pike
Counties. With the low clouds there could be some lingering
drizzle. Low clouds are quickly pushing east past Syracuse,
Binghamton, and Towanda. This should push east of the entire
area this afternoon. High clouds are streaming north on the back
side of the cold front but this should also push east this
evening. So skies will clear from west to east late tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the 20s which is where the dewpoints
are. Winds will become light.

Friday with heating and the cold northwest low level flow, lake
effect clouds will dominate but probably with little to no
showers. With the cold air high temperatures will be cooler and
mostly in the low and mid 40s for most except for the Wyoming
Valley which will be around 50. Northwest winds will be 10 to 20
mph with higher gusts.

The clouds will linger into Friday night. Low temperatures will
be from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees. Winds will stay strong
with the tight pressure gradient between the strong low over
Maine and high pressure over Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM update...

An upper level trough is exiting the region Friday night with a
fairly tight pressure gradient for at least the first half of
the night so gusty winds will still be present. Weak ridging
tries to build in by Saturday morning as another shortwave
descends into the Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon into the
evening. Temperatures at 850 mb look to stay below freezing
across much of NY but better odds of NEPA seeing 850 temps
getting above freezing ahead of the precipitation moving in.

Given that most of the model guidance has the precipitation
moving in late Saturday afternoon and through the overnight
hours, there is better chances at seeing snow. As of now, given
the time of the year and warmer surface temperatures, snow
chances have been limited to higher elevations where wet bulb
temperatures remain below 33. Modeled QPF is light, largely
staying below 0.2 inches in ensemble members and deterministic
runs. With ground temperatures above freezing the lack of
heavier QPF where there is snow means it will be tough to get
any meaningful accumulations but decided to keep some minor
accumulations at elevations above 1600 feet or so.

The shortwave will likely be east of the region Sunday with
weak upper level ridging building back in. temperatures moderate
quickly, rising back into the mid 40s to low 50s so any snow
that is able to stick will not be around for long.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 AM update...

The long term stays active as a long wave trough sets up out
west with largely SW flow aloft east of the Mississippi River.
Looking at 500 mb, strong blocking develops in western Greenland
which will help slow any systems that develop mid to late week
as they approach the east coast. There is a good signal for a
stronger low to develop Tuesday into Wednesday and then meander
through the Northeast through late week. It is uncertain how
much cold air there will be or where the low ends up stalling.
If the low can get towards the coast with cold air in place,
there will likely be cold valley rain and mountain snow mid to
late week but a stall near the Great Lakes would be more warm
southerly flow but still wet. Given the high confidence in the
storm system existing, chances of precipitation were kept high
Tuesday through early Thursday with residual chances into the
weekend. There is lower confidence in the weather type so was
more generous with the coverage of rain/snow mix.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 pm update...

MVFR cigs continue only at AVP now until around 21z. Maybe an
hour of fuel alternate left now.

CNY sites have lifted to VFR and the lower clouds are scattering
out from west to east with only RME around 3500 feet. High
clouds will linger everywhere into tonight. Friday a 5k or 6k
foot ceiling will dominate due to lake moisture and northwest
cold air advection.

Northwest winds around 10 kts this afternoon fall to 5 to 10 kts
tonight. Friday the winds pick up to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to
25 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday morning...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR but restrictions
from rain showers possibly changing to snow showers Saturday
overnight and Sunday morning. (Moderate confidence)

Sunday night...VFR (Moderate confidence)

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; chance of showers.
(Moderate confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...TAC


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