Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 221705
SWODY2
SPC AC 221704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA/THE KEYS AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North
Carolina/the Outer Banks.

...Synopsis...

A southern stream upper trough over the Gulf and southern U.S. early
Saturday will shift east through the period, moving offshore the
Southeast coast by Sunday morning. This will focus stronger
deep-layer southwesterly flow across FL and near the coastal
Carolinas through 00z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from
the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity southwest into the eastern Gulf during
the morning. The front will shift east/southeast during the day,
moving offshore from the Carolinas by late afternoon/early evening,
and sagging southward across FL through evening.

...NC coast/Outer Banks...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning
ahead of the cold front in a low-level warm advection regime. While
higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will likely remain offshore,
weak instability is forecast in the vicinity of the Outer Banks.
Gusty winds may accompany this activity. An additional round of
thunderstorms associated with the cold front will be possible across
far eastern NC and the Outer Banks later in the afternoon. Modest
airmass recovery is possible if morning convection and cloud debris
exit early enough, though instability is still expected to remain
limited. Vertical shear will increase by afternoon and some
organized convection is possible, posing mainly a conditional risk
for locally strong gusts.

...South FL/FL Keys...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the FL Keys/FL Straits
Saturday morning as a continuation of thunderstorm clusters
impacting the region during the Day 1 period. While the synoptic
cold front will be over northern FL early in the day, a convectively
reinforced outflow boundary/effective front will likely be draped
across the southern FL Peninsula. Strong vertical shear will remain
over the region through early afternoon before low-level flow
becomes veered and midlevel subsidence starts to impinge on the
region with the arrival of the cold front. Forecast soundings
indicate moderate destabilization is possible given a very moist
boundary-layer beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, though this
remains conditional on airmass recovery. Any thunderstorms that
develop may pose a risk for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or
two through early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should move
offshore by mid/late afternoon.

..Leitman.. 03/22/2024

$$


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