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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262118
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
218 PM MST Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will increase west to east
this afternoon through tomorrow, with high elevation snow likely.
Windy conditions will also accompany showers/storms through this
evening. Warm and dry weather returns to the forecast by Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover is quickly invading northern Arizona,
with the increase in moisture ahead of the incoming trough.
Showers will initiate towards the Kaibab Plateau and expand
southwestward throughout the evening/overnight hours. In fact, we
are already seeing showers here in Bellemont as of 2 PM. The
heaviest precipitation will be associated with the front moving
through the area, which is expected later this evening/overnight.
Snow accumulation will be likely for higher elevations, but most
populated areas will only see 0.5-2 inches. As for rainfall
amounts, areas across the higher terrain could see near 0.5" with
elsewhere ranging from 0.05-0.25". Keep in mind with the heavier
precipitation taking place overnight, roads could be slick/lightly
covered in snow. Use extra caution if driving late tonight or
hitting the road early tomorrow morning.

The SPC HREF members also show plenty of instability across
northern Arizona today/tomorrow, so anticipate chances for
thunderstorms. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, graupel, gusty winds and lightning. And for those higher
elevation locations, thunder-snow is not out of the question.

Not only is precipitation moving in from this storm system, but
gusty winds will continue through this evening. Localized stronger
winds could remain during the overnight hours, primarily
associated with stronger storm cells. With the widespread gusty
winds wrapping up this evening, our Wind Advisory is set to expire
at 7 PM MST/ 8 PM MDT.

Sunday through much of next week look for a zonal flow across the
area. This pattern will allow temperatures to quickly climb above
normal and winds to remain mostly light with occasional afternoon
breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 26/18Z through Saturday 27/18Z...Winds will
increase through this afternoon becoming SW 15-25 kts locally
gusting to 40 kts. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will first
develop from KFLG north and west during the afternoon then spread
eastward to the New Mexico border overnight. Widespread MVFR and
local IFR conditions developing, with snow levels falling to near
6500 ft above MSL. Thunderstorm threat mainly ends by 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 27/18Z through Monday 29/18Z...The threat for
showers and thunderstorms continues through Saturday afternoon,
with snow levels around 6500 ft above MSL rising to 7500 ft late
Saturday afternoon. Expect widespread MVFR conditions along with
local IFR conditions. Winds Saturday will remain gusty out of the
west at 10 to 20 kts gusting to 30 kts. VFR conditions move in
Saturday night and beyond, with daytime winds WSW 10-15 kts Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Sunday...Showers and isolated
thunderstorms move into the region from northwest to southeast this
evening and continue through Saturday. Some mountain snow is
forecast above 6500 feet. Fair and warmer weather arrives Sunday.
Southwest wind 15-25 mph Saturday, shifting to westerly and
decreasing slightly on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warmer. West to southwest breezes
at 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009-
012>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff