344
FXUS61 KOKX 101809
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stagnant pattern will keep chances for some showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast thru Fri. High pressure builds
off the New England coast this weekend, before a frontal system
approaches from the west early next week. The associated cold
front moves through on Monday, and high pressure returns into
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As an upr trof continues to track ewd this aftn and eve, the
associated dpva will do so as well. This will tend to keep the best
upr support over the Atlc. The airmass over most of the CWA has been
worked over as well, so without the good forcing, it may be
difficult to initiate any substantial convection this aftn and eve
across most of the area. Extreme nwrn zones look to destabilize most
based on clearing indicated on stlt and the lack of pcpn earlier
today. As a result, the best chances for isold-sct aftn/eve
development should be in those areas. With the loss of daytime
heating and the passage of the upr trof axis overnight, any pcpn
should wind down across the CWA. With a lgt to calm flow tngt, some
patchy fog is possible with the llvl moisture lingering.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing CAPE and decreasing CIN on Fri, but subsidence across the
region is expected to limit/inhibit convective initiation attm.
Still cannot rule out a few isold or widely sct aftn/eve tstms,
particularly across the interior where there is some terrain to work
with. The GFS does bring isold activity across the entire CWA, but
without support from the NAM, have left the NBM pops unaltered.

Some patchy fog again modeled for Fri ngt. A very subtle lljet may
try to produce a few shwrs or tstms overnight, again mainly nwrn
areas, but the NBM has not latched on to this yet so something to
look for. The NAM and GFS have a weak signal.

Hotter on Fri with all areas in the 80s, and the usual hot spots
across the SW approaching 90. The MAV and NBS has 90 at EWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds off the coast of Nova Scotia and maintains an
offshore flow much of the weekend. This should help keep much of
southern CT and LI dry, though inland western areas will see showers
and thunderstorms possible each afternoon with a moist BL in SE flow
and diurnal heating helping to build instability.

Thereafter, a broad mid level trough centered over the Upper Great
Lakes translates east into early next week, helping advance a
frontal system toward and through the region, bringing increased
chances for a more widespread rainfall, especially on Monday ahead
of the cold front. Parameters appear at least marginally supportive
of thunderstorm development, but steering flow appears progressive
enough to mitigate significant flood concerns.

Conditions dry behind the fropa into midweek as weak high pressure
drifts in and NW flow aloft looks to lower the humidity.
Temperatures through the period look to largely stay in the 80s most
afternoons thru early week, with a gradual warm up then into mid
next week.

National blended guidance was followed for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surface trough remains in the vicinity of the terminals through
Friday.

Mainly VFR with MVFR across Long Island east of the NYC terminals,
and IFR at KGON. An isolated thunderstorms is possible at KSWF late
afternoon. Conditions lower late this evening and tonight, becoming
MVFR at the NYC metro terminals, and IFR, possibly LIFR a the other
terminals, except KSWF which may only briefly be MVFR toward Friday
morning. Timing and lowering of flight categories are somewhat
uncertain. Conditions slowly improve to VFR Friday morning, except
at KGON which may remain MVFR into the afternoon. An isolated
thunderstorm will again be possible at KSWF Friday afternoon.

Winds will be light S to SE this afternoon, and become light and
variable at all terminals this evening into tonight. A light SE flow
develops Friday morning, except a light NE flow initially at KLGA.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely late tonight into Friday morning for timing and
flight categories of ceilings/visibilities.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon - Sunday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and
northwest of the NYC terminals.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, becoming likely
during the afternoon northwest of the NYC terminals. MVFR conditions
in showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of tstms, winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls
thru Fri ngt.

Light flow and low seas should then maintain sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions on all coastal waters through early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any tstms that develop thru Fri ngt could produce highly localized
minor flooding.

No significant hydro concerns in the long term.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk forecast is moderate both for today and Friday
for the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island due to onshore flow
of near 5-10 kts as well as 3 to 4 ft of 7-8 sec period swell as
well as some smaller onshore long period swell of 1 ft and
11-12 sec period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...