102
FXUS66 KOTX 120432
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
932 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures through the weekend warm to the highest values of
the season so far, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in
the lower 90s. Breezy winds will occur across portions of central
and eastern Washington Sunday and Monday. The weather pattern for
early next week is uncertain, however temperatures will be
slightly cooler with increasing clouds, and a small chance of
precipitation for the Cascade Crest, northeast Washington, and the
northern half of the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night: A flat upper ridge will remain over
the region tonight for more dry, quiet weather. For aurora
viewing, flat cumulus will dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating while high clouds continue to move over the
region. Overall slightly more cloud cover tonight compared to last
night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected. On Sunday
the ridge begins to flatten and move east but mild southwest flow
in advance of an approaching mid level wave will result in another
warm day with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This wave
then tracks into the region from west to east overnight Sunday
into Monday morning followed by a secondary wave out of the
northwest Monday afternoon and evening. While neither of these
waves are terribly impressive, lapse rates will steepen by Monday
afternoon for a chance of showers mainly over the mountains, NE
Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Models show marginal
instability for thunderstorms, and with SPC not carrying anything
in their general outlook the forecast leans this direction. JW

Tuesday through Saturday: Models remain split in the overall
synoptic pattern for the extended forecast, with a range of outcomes
possible. We`re rolling with the NBM right now, with a slight
majority suggesting warm and mostly dry conditions anticipated
(slight chance POPs for northern WA mountains and the ID
panhandle). As confidence in this forecast is low, those with
plans Wednesday and beyond should monitor the forecast more
closely over the coming 24-48hrs until a stronger consensus is
achieved. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure begins to weaken Sunday afternoon which
may allow for a few pop up showers to develop over the mountains
near the Canadian border. This will also increase winds compared
to Saturday with gusts up to 25 mph across the Columbia Basin,
West Plains, and Palouse. A stronger push of westerly winds arrive
through the Cascade gaps Sunday evening impacting Wenatchee after
00z. Otherwise, VFR skies are expected across E WA and N ID. /sb


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence in VFR conditions. Main uncertainty comes
with the timing of the Cascade gap winds coming down the Wenatchee
River Valley and into Wenatchee Airport.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  81  51  74  47  75 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  78  51  71  47  71 /   0   0   0  20  20   0
Pullman        51  76  51  69  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Lewiston       56  84  54  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       48  82  48  75  45  77 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Sandpoint      49  77  50  69  48  70 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Kellogg        54  75  53  68  49  68 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     53  87  53  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  85  56  74  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  88  53  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$