903
FXUS66 KOTX 091726
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and increasing winds will bring critical fire
  weather conditions Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings have been
  issued through 8pm Wednesday.

- Wednesday will deliver the strongest winds. Gusty conditions
  expected regionwide with gusts 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing winds combined with dry conditions will result in
critical fire weather conditions through today. Limited shower
chances will be found over the area through Thursday, largely
near the mountains. After a brief mid-week cool down, warm
temperatures will return Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: The Inland NW will be cooler today,
relatively speaking, as a cold front pushes through the area.
However the cooler air will come with breezy to windy
conditions. This morning some elevated instability and subtle
shortwave ahead of the front will mean some limited shower
threat over eastern WA and ID very early. Then later this
morning into the afternoon the incoming front will bring other
shower chances around the Cascades and northern mountains, with
a small chance of thunderstorms over the northern mountains
largely east of Ferry County through north Idaho. A couple
hundred J/kg of CAPE are found, with the best risk over Pend
Oreille and Boundary county. There is also a fair amount of
deeper instability toward southern Idaho, bordering the Camas
Prairie and Clearwaters, so that area will be monitored should
that creep further north.

Winds will be the other feature of the system. With the
incoming "cooler" air and increased gradient winds will be
stronger today than Tuesday, with gusts near 25-45 mph possible.
The strongest are expected over the Waterville Plateau into the
Upper Columbia Basin. These will be most notable later this
morning through evening, declining into the overnight. RH values
will be a bit higher than Tuesday, but still bordering critical
values in some spots. Thus the Red Flag Warnings remain in
place. At this time, winds are not forecast to be strong enough
to warrant any wind advisories.

Thursday will be a bit quieter but a secondary shortwave skims
by. This will bring some shower chances over the far northeast
WA mountains and Idaho Panhandle Mountain zones. A slight chance
for t-storms will be found over north Idaho, near the Canadian
border. Wind will remain breezy, with gusts near 15-25 mph. The
shower threat and winds wane in the evening.

Smoke from the Pomas Fire and the Hope Fire are forecast to
spread east and southeast this morning and spread some smoke
and/or haze across the Columbia Basin and northeast WA/north
ID. These will mix out more in afternoon and be more impactful
overnight/early morning today and again Thursday morning.

Highs will be in the upper 80s and 90s today, with some low to
mid-80s and upper 70s heading in the Cascades. Lows will be in
the mid-50s to mid-60s tonight. Thursday will be cooler still
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

Friday to Tuesday: Weak high pressure builds, with a west-
northwest flow and the jet axis just northeast of the area until
heading into the new work week. The area will be dry through
the weekend, with temperatures gradually warming up. A chance
for showers start to slip back into northeast WA and north ID
Monday and Tuesday afternoon. It will be occasionally breezy,
but nothing overtly strong. The strongest will be near the lee
of the Cascades to western basin. We will have to keep an eye on
any marginal elevated fire weather concerns in that area as RHs
hover near the upper teens to mid-20s. Highs will largely be in
the 90s, except Friday which will see some mid to upper 80s to
mid-90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Winds throughout the area
are increasing in advance of the incoming cold front, and will
continue increasing throughout the day. KEAT/KMWH will see the
highest winds, with up to 35kts possible. However, winds will be
gusty throughout much of the area, including at
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KLWS/KPUW where 30kt gusts could be seen. Winds
will decrease around 03-05Z except for KEAT, where winds will
continue for another couple hours. Smoke from the Pomas and Hope
Fires will make its way across eastern Washington and into the
Northern Idaho Panhandle, but visibilities aren`t going to be
impacted enough to include them in the TAFs. Chance for some
thunderstorms along the Canadian border and Panhandle, but
confidence is low. Chance for some showers along the Cascade
crests, but confidence is also low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through the TAF period. High confidence in
gusty winds through this afternoon and evening. Moderate
confidence in haze but low confidence it will impact any
visibilities. Low confidence in afternoon thunderstorms and
showers along the Cascades. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        89  58  83  56  89  60 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  88  58  81  54  87  59 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        85  54  78  51  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       96  65  88  62  93  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       88  47  81  45  88  50 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      86  55  78  50  84  55 /  10  10  20   0   0   0
Kellogg        86  59  76  57  84  61 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     91  59  87  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  63  85  63  93  68 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           88  57  86  56  93  62 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone
     709)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone
     706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening for
     Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701).
ID...&&

$$