207
FXUS64 KSJT 101716
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1216 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front has moved through the area tonight, leaving west
central Texas in a much cooler air mass. Highs were as warm as 100
degrees at San Angelo and Junction yesterday, while today we`re
looking for highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Low clouds are
currently affecting much of the area, especially south of I-20.
Expect cloud cover to generally persist across the entire forecast
through Friday night.

More pressing, we may see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Interstate 20 late this morning into the
afternoon hours. While most of this activity will not be severe, a
few storms could strengthen enough to produce marginally severe
hail of up to an inch, or gusty winds approaching 60 mph.

Tonight, expect storms to end by around 7 or 8 PM, leaving the
area under mainly cloud skies, and continued east to northeast
winds. Lows should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The rest of the weekend will continue to see an unsettled
pattern. An isolated severe thunderstorm possible in Crockett
county Saturday afternoon/evening as moisture and instability
returns and an upper shortwave moves across. Moisture and
instability then further increases late Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a warm front moves through. With precipital water
values increasing to 1.5 inches, as least localized flooding will
be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Some storms
could become severe as GFS MUCAPES increase to 1500-2500 J/KG.
midday Sunday.

There is a decrease in activity Monday as a cold front moves
through, bringing in drier air. Instability does increase
significantly Wednesday and Wednesday night, and along with a
shortwave may produce another round of severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Expect low end VFR ceilings to scattered clouds this afternoon and
mainly VFR conditions tonight. Low clouds will return Saturday
morning with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals. Also, a few
thunderstorms are possible along the I-10 corridor this afternoon.
The winds will be from the east-northeast and little gusty at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  60  71  59 /  10  20  60  40
San Angelo  79  60  74  62 /  30  20  80  50
Junction    83  62  81  66 /  20  20  50  50
Brownwood   78  60  73  61 /  10  10  50  40
Sweetwater  78  60  69  59 /  10  20  80  50
Ozona       77  62  74  64 /  40  30  70  60
Brady       78  61  74  63 /  20  10  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21