Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
085 FXUS62 KTBW 100030 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 830 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A rather warm and muggy evening across the area as south to southwest flow has setup across the region. A cool front is moving through the southeast states and convection ahead of this boundary has moved into north Florida, but is weakening quickly as it approaches our northern waters and Levy County. For the remainder of the night expect some areas of low clouds to develop across the region with temperatures only falling into the 70s. Friday we`ll see the clouds thin out with partly cloudy, warm and humid conditions. However, the next round of convection ahead of the cool front will move into our northern waters and Nature Coast during the afternoon and continue to move south during Friday night, but weaken as it moves south. Overall the current forecast looks ok with no changes planned at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 830 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 MVFR/local IFR ceilings are expected to overspread the TAF sites tonight then lift and dissipate Friday morning with VFR conditions then expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Southwest winds will diminish and shift to south at around 5 knots tonight, then increase to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts and shift back to southwesterly by Friday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The big story today will once again be the heat. Highs in the interior will once again be near records in the mid to upper 90`s. A squall line currently in Middle Georgia is expected to continue to head southeast into North Florida. This line could clip parts of Levy County this evening where a stray strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. As we go into our Friday the cold front that is currently starting to push into the southeast will start to head our way. The front itself will be weakening as it heads towards us. This means the showers and storms that is associated with it will also be weakening. However we can not rule out a stronger storm or two north of I-4 in the late afternoon and evening hours. By the time the line reaches Tampa most of the shower activity will be gone and shower activity will be very limited south of I-4. The front will dry us out for our weekend. Since it is May in Florida we won`t see to much cold air with it, but we will have one pleasant morning in the 60`s on Sunday before we quickly warm up to around 90 degrees in the afternoon. Starting next week moisture will quickly return resulting in some isolated sea breeze thunderstorms on Monday. Our next system will be heading our way on Tuesday and Wednesday which should increase shower chances. Models are still a little all over the place with timing and exactly how much rain we can expect. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Wind will continue to be out of a southern direction through Friday and generally below 15 knots. A front will come through late Friday and Friday night which could produce a few showers in our northern waters. After that winds will shift to northwest on Saturday and then northeast on Sunday, but once again should stay below 15 knots. By Monday winds go back southeast and we will be expecting some sea breeze thunderstorms in the afternoon that could drift towards the coast into the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 After seeing some spotty critical RHs yesterday and today across the interior we will see a little bit more moisture tomorrow along with the shower chances north of I-4. However, a frontal system will push through late Friday which will drop RHs even more. On Saturday critical RHs look to stay in the interior, but the whole west coast of Florida should expect critical RHs with some spots getting into the 20`s on Sunday. Moisture will quickly return early next week as southeast to south flow sets up. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 88 77 88 / 0 20 30 10 FMY 75 92 77 90 / 0 0 20 30 GIF 75 92 74 92 / 0 10 30 10 SRQ 77 88 76 89 / 0 10 30 10 BKV 71 89 69 89 / 0 30 30 10 SPG 78 86 79 86 / 0 20 40 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn