Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 262324
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Broad high pressure was in place from the southern Great Plains to
the Great Lakes this afternoon, and was keeping us under a mix of
sun and clouds. Temperatures across the region were in the middle to
upper 60s.

To our west, a weak cold front stretched from the Twin Cities to
Grand Island, Nebraska, and was mainly producing a line of mid to
high level clouds. A few sprinkles to light rain showers were noted
across southern Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The cold front will pass through the region late this afternoon and
evening. A few sprinkles may be possible, but dry, well mixed air
will hinder any shower development. Skies will slowly clear
overnight.

Friday morning will feature mostly sunny skies before a strong cold
front passes through during the afternoon. The NAM, GFS and Euro
paint some precipitation east of the Mississippi, but forecast
soundings show low levels will be dry and well mixed. As a result,
have only a slight chance of pops in this area. Northwest winds will
increase to around 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 35 mph by the
afternoon. RH values dropping into the 25 to 30 percent range,
coupled with partial green up to date, will promote an elevated
grassland fire danger. GFDI (Grassland Fire Danger Index) values
climb into the very high range during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Cool Canadian high pressure will build across the Midwest after the
cold front passage, providing a beautiful spring weekend across the
area. Temperatures will fair a little below normal for Saturday,
with highs climbing into the lower 50s to near 60. Saturday night,
may need to watch for areas of patchy frost along the Hwy 20
corridor as temperatures drop into the lower 30s under clear skies
and light winds. By Sunday, a building upper level ridge and
southerly wind flow behind the high will set the stage for
moderating temperatures going into the work week.

The weather will turn active beginning Tuesday as a trough and
series of shortwaves progress into the Great Plains. Southerly wind
flow over an open Gulf of Mexico will usher in warm, moisture rich
air into the mid Mississippi River Valley, where it will interact
with a slow moving frontal boundary. All models agree on developing
periods of showers and thunderstorms along the front Tuesday through
Thursday, but disagree on exact placement at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions are expected to dominate the TAF cycle. A cold front
will continue to move across the terminals this evening bringing
a wind shift to the northwest, and also accompanied by a period of
mid/high cloudiness. On Friday, an upper level shortwave will drop down
into the Great Lakes by the evening. Anticipate some VFR cu with an
increase in mid cloudiness during the afternoon. Can`t rule out a few
showers, especially near and east of the Mississippi River, but the
coverage looks too sparse for any mention at this time. Winds will become
gusty by afternoon from the W/SW at 15-25 kts, and can`t rule out a few
periods of near advisory criteria winds sustained near 25 kts and gusts
to 35+ kts from NW with deeper mixing and enhanced momentum transfer from
any showers.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck/Uttech
LONG TERM...Speck/Uttech
AVIATION...McClure


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