440
FXUS64 KHGX 150526
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Rain chances lowering thru midweek, but not totally eliminated.

- Chances of precipitation begin increasing again late Thurs-Sat.

- Still monitoring the tropics (northeast & north central Gulf).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Overall forecast reasoning and trends remain about the same as
previously advertised. GOES Total PW loop shows some drier air
beginning to move into the area from the Gulf. This, along with some
higher mid-upper level ridging in the area, should continue the
trend of lowering day-to-day shra/tstm chances/coverage into
midweek. Would still anticipate a few pop-up cells in association
with heating/seabreeze today, but by Wed we`ll see PW vales at or
slightly below 1.5" areawide and an even tougher environment for
storm initiation.

Inverted mid-upper trof off the east coast of Florida will be making
eastward progress and into the Gulf late today and Wednesday.
This`ll be the region NHC will be looking to see whether a well
defined llvl circulation can emerge somewhere within the disturbed
wx. And if so...where it does so. If over the water, conditions are
somewhat favorable for some additional development for a possible
depression to form in the next several days over the ne/nctrl Gulf.
Current model consensus suggests areas more to our east may see the
more impactful risk/wx...*BUT* take all that with a grain of salt
until if/when/where things become better defined.

One thing we are fairly confident in seeing is a return of higher PW
air (2.0-2.4" values) moving in from the east late Thurs into
Saturday as the mid-upper trof moves toward the western Gulf Coast.
Pattern beyond that is not exactly clear cut. Some guidance
indicates a lingering weakness in the area into early next
week...others some mild ridging. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Two areas of showers/storms are still around Southeast Texas late
this afternoon: one near CLL and pushing northward and the other
near IAH. Some of these storms are capable of producing wind gusts
in excess of 30-40kt at times and intermittent MVFR/IFR
conditions. Shower/storm activity expected to gradually decrease
after sunset, then dissipate completely by 03Z. Another round of
MVFR ceilings expected overnight for CXO and northward after 10Z.
Some periods of patchy fog possible as well going into early
Tuesday morning, especially for those that received rainfall
earlier today. VFR conditions return by 16Z areawide with
southerly winds around 7-12kt. Another round of isolated to
scattered showers/storms is possible Tuesday afternoon after
20Z...this has been covered for now with PROB30`s for SHRA for
terminals around I-10 but these could be upgraded to TS if
confidence increases on location for this convection.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow should prevail with 2-
3ft seas. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase late Thursday into
the weekend. NHC continues to monitor portions of the northeast and
north central Gulf for some potential tropical development. 47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  74  93  73 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  76  95  76 /  40  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  92  82  92  81 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM