Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 191941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
341 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to the area
tonight. On the northern edge of the precipitation a wintry mix
is possible. As the low moves into the Appalachians, the
precipitation will pull in colder area bringing accumulating
snow to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.


H5 s/w will move out of the plains and into srn Ohio tonight.
Ahead of the s/w, a sfc low will slip east through Kentucky.
Rain will push into the sw corner of the fa shortly after 00Z,
then will lift north through the night. By 12Z Tuesday, the band
will be around the I-70 corridor. Thicknesses will be warm
enough for the pcpn to fall as rain. The tricky part of the
forecast is the low temperature forecast. How far south will the
freezing temperatures make it, as this is where a chance of some
freezing rain will set up. The overall trend of the models was
for temperatures tonight to be a little warmer, but the raw NAM
was bringing the freezing temps well south of day, setting up a
band of significant freezing rain. Went with a blended low
temperature forecast, which is a little warmer. But a light area
of freezing rain/rain from the nrn Whitewater Valley up
through DAY into Union County Ohio is still possible. Will
cover this with a SPS, as the ground temperatures have warmed
and the last freezing rain system, produced only a few impacts.

Lows tonight will range form the extreme nw to lower 40s in the
lower Scioto Valley and ne KY.


The surface low tracks in the Appalachians on Tuesday. The
deformation band of pcpn, lingers in the north Tuesday morning,
before it starts pivoting to the northeast. Across the southern
part of the area, the pcpn will be more scattered in nature
during the morning hours. The pcpn will transition to rain
during the day.

Late Tuesday afternoon into early evening a reinforcing shot of
cold air will begin to push southeast out of Canada in the form
of another shortwave. As this happens rain will start to mix
with snow in the northwest, then the rain/snow line drops
southeast through the region.

Snowfall amounts could be a couple of inches around the I-71
corridor by the end of the period, with a little less across the
rest of the fa. Will issue a WW Advisory to cover the snow


Snow will be ongoing at the start of the long term on Wednesday with
the surface low situated just southeast of the area.  Some
additional snowfall accumulations will be likely on Wednesday during
the day, however some accumulations may be offset during the daytime
hours due to the time of the year.

Snow will begin to taper off through the day as the area of low
pressure moves away from the area.  With cloud cover and snow,
continued the trend of going cooler and below guidance for high
temperatures on Wednesday. In addition winds will continue to gust
with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible.

Additional snow showers will be possible during the overnight hours
Wednesday night across southwestern portions of the region as an
upper level disturbance works down into that area.  Due to some
uncertainty with the placement of this disturbance decided to limit
precipitation chances to a slight chance at this time.

High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday and
Friday.  The next system will then work into the region for the
weekend bringing a mix of rain snow to the area.

There are some model discrepancies on when precipitation will begin
to move into the region with the Monday into Monday night system,
however expect most of the precipitation to hold off until Monday


TAFs will be VFR for the first half of the period, then cigs and
vsbys will drop quickly.

A compact H5 s/w will move out of the plains and into srn Ohio
by 12Z Tuesday. Ahead of the s/w, a sfc low will slip east
through Kentucky.

Broken cirrus will affect the TAFs though 00Z, then cigs will
begin to lower. Rain on the northern side of the sfc low will
move into the CVG/LUK tafs around 03Z, bringing in low VFR
cigs. The ceilings will lower to MVFR within a few hours of
onset as the column moistens.

Band of rain will lift north through the night, reaching the
nrn tafs by 09Z. Precipitation should be rain, except at KDAY
where some snow may mix in around 12Z. Winds will increase as
the sfc low deepens. Winds gusts up around 25 kts will be

Tuesday morning the band of precipitation lingers across the nrn
tafs, but begins to weak towards the end of the period. For the
srn TAFS, a dirty dry slot works in. Ceilings will remain MVFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
Tuesday through Wednesday.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.


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