Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

At 08z...Broken mid and high clouds remained across much of western
Nebraska. A lead disturbance was bringing scattered showers to
western and central South Dakota, with scattered sprinkles further
south into central Nebraska. Winds were easterly at 5 to 15 mph with
gusts to 20 mph. Temperatures ranged mostly from the mid 40s to near
50. Some lightning strikes occurring across portions of Nevada,
northwest Arizona into Utah, just upstream of the 500mb trough.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A 500mb shortwave trough currently extending from Nevada into
northwest Arizona will lift northeast reaching the plains of eastern
Wyoming and northeast Colorado by 21z this afternoon. This will
trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across western
Nebraska. Surface low pressure will be centered in far northwest
Kansas with a warm front extending east near the Nebraska/Kansas
border. North of the warm front, elevated instability will exist
across portions of southwest into central Nebraska. 0-3km shear will
range from 35 to 45 kts along with mid level lapse rates from 7.5 to
8 C/km. Instability will be fairly modest at up to 500-750 j/kg. An
area of marginally severe hail up to 1 inch diameter will be
possible mainly east of Stockville to North Platte and Broken Bow.
Highs today will range warmest in the far southwestern zones from
near 72 at Imperial to around 45 over much of Boyd and Holt county,
where deeper easterly winds exist. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph
across the northeast with lighter winds of 5 to 15 mph across the
southwest. A wind shift to the northwest late afternoon begins in
the northwest Sandhills. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
should initiate by 20Z, as currently indicated by the latest HRRR
and RAP models. POP to increase to 30 to 50 percent by late this
afternoon areawide.

For tonight, the shortwave trough will continue to move east, while
the surface low moves from north central to east central Kansas.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more widespread until
mid evening as they move northeast, with likely POPs in the
northeastern zones. The potential for early evening storms, with
marginally severe hail to continue across portions of eastern
Frontier, southeast Lincoln and southern Custer County. Remaining
shower activity will exit the eastern zones after midnight. Clearing
skies across the west and southwest overnight behind the cold front
for lows in the low to mid 30s, with upper 30s across the southeast

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Ridging aloft will dominate the weather Saturday ahead of a long
wave trough digging south across the western CONUS. As the flow
aloft becomes southwest Saturday night, mid level warm air advection
will increase. This could lead to shower development across northern
Nebraska after midnight. Thermal profiles do support a mix or wet
snow across portions of north central Nebraska, but no snow
accumulation is expected.

Precipitation chances increase later Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night. Surface low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado
Sunday night, with continued mid level warm air advection as well a
decent southerly low level jet nosing into the area Sunday night
ahead of the surface low. Shower activity should develop across the
panhandle later Sunday afternoon and then advance eastward across
the area Sunday night. A change over to wet snow is expected to
occur across northwest Nebraska after midnight, with some minor
accumulations of 1/2 inch or so on grassy surfaces. As far as
thunder, instability looks very weak to non existent, so no thunder

Scattered showers are possible through the day Monday, as southwest
flow aloft continues ahead of the long wave trough that will be in
the process of closing off across Arizona. By Tuesday the area will
begin to see the effects of the northern stream, as a shortwave dive
southeast across the northern plains. This will keep things mostly
dry for us as flow aloft transitions to northwest. Meanwhile the
southern plains will see locally heavy rainfall as the AZ upper low
tracks east across that area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Breezy southeast winds and scattered low level cumulus fields
will remain across portions of western Nebraska this afternoon
ahead of a storm system. Precipitation will develop late afternoon
and overspread the region through the evening hours in the form
of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will switch to northwest and
showers dissipate late tonight as the area of low pressure pushes
through. A stratus deck will be left in its wake across northern
Nebraska, resulting in MVFR to IFR cigs Saturday morning.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Snively is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.