363
FXUS66 KMFR 152225
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
325 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.Updated AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER Discussions...

&&

.AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...The marine layer remains just offshore,
but also slightly inland from Cape Arago northward. Within the next
few hours, stratus will impact North Bend, bringing the return of
IFR/LIFR conditions that are likely to persist into Wednesday
morning. Gusty north winds redevelop this afternoon, though should
overall be weaker compared to Monday afternoon. Inland, VFR will
prevail the next 24 hours, though some locations will have reduced
visibility due to wildfire smoke and/or haze. This is most likely in
the immediate vicinity and downwind of the most persistent fires.
Some cumulus buildups will persist across the higher terrain of
northern California and southern Klamath/Lake Counties, but there is
only about a 5-10% chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday, July 15, 2025...The thermal
trough pattern will continue through Wednesday. This will maintain
strong north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas across
all waters. Gales are expected in the afternoons/evenings mainly
south of Port Orford and beyond 5 nm from shore. Conditions will
begin to improve around mid-week as we transition away from wind-
driven seas. However, steep seas will be found in all areas Tuesday
evening through Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 130 PM PDT Tuesday, July 15, 2025...Main
fire weather risks today are the hot, dry weather. There is a low
chance (5-10%) of thunderstorms too, mainly in NorCal, but we`re not
expecting more than a few cumulus buildups with an isolated storm or
two.

For tonight, RH recovery has been moderate at best with some locally
poor recoveries expected, especially in the Cascades. This is due to
winds turning to be from the ENE overnight. The hot weather will
continue through at least Wednesday, with some gradual "cooling"
expected late week. With a weak trough pushing through this weekend,
we may see temps get back closer to normal values, though this may
be at the expense of some breezier conditions, especially Saturday
afternoon/evening. This trough is not expected to bring any
precipitation, but depending on the timing, humidities could remain
relatively low -- near critical, especially east of the Cascades
with the breezy winds. This will be something to keep an eye out for
this weekend. -Schaaf/Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 102 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025/

DISCUSSION...It will be another warm afternoon with locations
reaching 96-101 degrees today. Considering the warmer morning and
the expected highs this afternoon, the Heat Advisory will continue
for west side valleys today. The northerly flow we`ll have the
next few days will bring near surface smoke to Southern Oregon
by this afternoon/evening. This is coming from wildfires from
Canada as well as the Cram Fire in NE Oregon. Smoke higher in the
atmosphere will create hazy skies for most locations the next few
afternoons.

There is a 15-20% chance for a shower this afternoon in portions of
Klamath, Lake, Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Although paintball
ensembles are showing more isolated cells than in previous days,
this has been the area that has seen development in recent days.
Satellite is showing cumulus building in this area, so this will be
monitored through the evening.

Tonight, temperatures will only cool to the low to mid-60s for most
spots west of the Cascades. Eastside lows will fall to the low/mid-
50s tonight. There is an 80-90% chance for the Rogue Valley and
Klamath River Valley to see 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon, and it
will be the warmest day of the week. The Heat Advisory will continue
through Wednesday evening because of this risk. Precautions need
to be taken to protect yourself from the heat. Drink plenty of
water, avoid peak heating between 10 AM and 4 PM, and stay in an
air- conditioned room as much as possible.

Long Term...Thursday through Tuesday...Ridging continues through the
rest of the work week with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal
for this time of year. After, a low starts to develop in western
Canada. This will help cool temperatures back to near normal towards
the 80s and low 90s. Winds are forecast to remain northerly, but
they have a 70-90% chance to gust to 20 mph in west side valleys
Friday and Saturday afternoons. East of the Cascades, there is a 70-
90% chance for 20 mph gusts those afternoons. Still favoring drier
conditions this weekend and the week after as well.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ023>026.

CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening
     for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$