Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
918 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High pressure will continue to build over the region through the
weekend. A slow moving low pressure system will affect the area
Monday through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to push
through the area late next week.


As of 915 PM Sat...Center of strong high pres will cont just to
the N keeping winds light over the region overnight. Other than
some thin high clouds expect mostly clear skies. Excellent
radiational cooling conditions will lead to lows around 40
cooler inland spots to low/mid 40s closer to coast.


As of 245 PM Sat...High pressure just to the north of the region
will allow for light easterly winds on Sunday. Skies will again
be mostly clear, and temperatures will warm to levels similar to
Saturday. Upper 60s to low 70s are expected west of US 17, mid
to upper 60s closer to the coast, and then upper 50s to low 60s
for the Outer Banks.


As of 250 PM Sat...High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night, and then an area of low pressure will approach from the
Lower Mississippi Valley through midweek. An upper trough will
linger over the region through the rest of the week, leading to
unsettled weather.

Sunday Night...High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night, with easterly flow persisting. Lows in the upper 40s
inland to mid 50s near the coast are expected by Monday morning.

Monday through Tuesday night...Unsettled conditions are expected for
this period as a significant upper low tracks across the Southern
Plains/MS Valley during the first half of next week. Scattered showers
look to arrive after mid morning Monday, but most of the rain
will hold off until Monday late afternoon. Meanwhile the upper
level low will become an open wave and slightly negatively
tilted as it becomes absorbed with another strong shortwave
trough dropping down from the Northern Plains. The track of the
sfc low will cross the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the
exact track and timing is still to be decided. This system will
have the potential for widespread rain with amount 1-3 inches
as the models show a significant 850mb moisture transport from
the Atlantic towards the area Monday night and Tuesday. Also,
there is the potential for severe weather, depending on the
track of the low, with a negatively tilted trough aloft, but at
this time instability is very limited; will continue to monitor.
Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s inland and low/mid 60s
along the beaches.

Wednesday through Saturday... Rain will start to taper off
Wednesday as the sfc low lifts NE and drier air filters in. Most
places will have a break from rain Wednesday night into
Thursday until the other aforementioned shortwave and it`s
associated weak cold front approaches the area with rain
redeveloping again Thursday. The weak cold front is expected to
push through Thursday night with a secondary cold front Friday
or Saturday. Expect a warming trends to start Wednesday with
highs 70s inland and 60s along the Outer Banks.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 615 PM Sat...High pressure will continue to prevail over
the area through Sunday. High confidence in mainly VFR
conditions through the TAF period with mostly clear skies and
light winds. Very brief and patchy shallow ground fog will be
possible again 10-12Z early Sunday morning espcly at KPGV. Could
also see some high based Cu develop Sunday afternoon with
onshore flow.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 105 PM
Sat...VFR conditions will continue through Monday as high
pressure influences the weather. Moisture will increase across
the region as a low pressure system tracks towards the Carolinas
producing widespread rain Monday night and Tuesday resulting in
MVFR conditions with possible IFR. Conditions will improve
Wednesday and Thursday as the low lifts north but sufficient
moisture and lift will persist to keep a threat of showers with
brief sub VFR conditions both days.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 915 PM Sat...No changes planned with ENE winds mainly 10
to 15 kts thru Sunday.

Prev disc...Winds are currently 10-15 kts from the NE over the
coastal waters with seas 2-3 ft. Winds are expected to remain
light ENE around 5-15 kts through Sunday afternoon, and seas
will range from 2-4 ft.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 310 PM Sat...Wind gradient will tighten Monday as a low
pressure system approaches the region from the Gulf States,
expect winds to become ENE 10-25 knots, then increasing to 25-35
knots Tuesday with gusts to 40 kts. A gale watch is likely to be
needed, but will hold off on issuance for now. As the low lifts
NE, winds will become SW 10-15 knots Wednesday. Seas will
generally be around 2-3 ft through early Monday morning, then
seas will build 5-8 ft Monday afternoon. Seas will continue to
build Monday night and Tuesday as the sfc low approaches the
area, expect seas to reach as high 10-15 ft peaking Tuesday
afternoon. Seas will gradually subside Wednesday, but remain
above 6 ft.




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