Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FNUS76 KLOX 171011

Spot Forecast for SBA County South Coast Precipitation Forecast...SBA County OEM
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
311 AM PDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Forecast is based on incident time of 0600 PDT on March 17.
If conditions become the National Weather

.DISCUSSION...Another upper level trough of low pressure will slide
down the coast of California today. The base of the upper trough will
move over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties this
afternoon. The combination of cold air aloft associated with the
trough overhead, and marginal warming at the surface will allow the
atmosphere to become unstable. With northwest flow across the region, The
best threat of convective showers today will be during the afternoon
and evening hours across the interior mountains of Santa Barbara
county and Cuyama Valley where isolated rainfall rates could range
between one quarter and one half inch per hour. However, at this
time, any showers that affect the south coast this afternoon and
evening are expected to be lighter in intensity.

It will be dry Sunday through Tuesday. Forecast models continue to
agree that a more significant storm is possible sometime between
Tuesday night through Thursday night. At this time, the greatest
concern for heaviest rainfall for the south coast would be Wednesday
into Wednesday night when peak rainfall rates could exceed 0.50 inch
in 1 hour or 1.00 inch in 3 hours (USGS thresholds for debris flows
in recent burn scars). Early estimates for storm totals would be 1.50
to 3.00 inches across the south coast, with highest amounts across
south facing foothills and coastal slopes.


Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable winds 3 to 6 mph becoming west
                    10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 to 0.10 inches.


Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers
                    in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph in the evening,
                    becoming variable 2 to 5 mph late.
Pcpn amount.........0.00-0.10 inches.


Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with variable high clouds.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

Requested by...Jeff Gater
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 1803755.10/LOX
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