Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 230209
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1009 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light lake effect rain and snow showers remains possible
under southwesterly flow. An area of low pressure will lead to
unsettled weather for the middle of the week. The greatest
chances for showers will be Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning. Then, high pressure leads to cool and dry conditions
heading into the weekend. The next weather system will begin to
impact the region late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1009 PM EDT Monday...No significant updates with this
forecast package. Radar echoes coming off of Lake Ontario have
dwindled as warmer air has begun to filter in aloft and stunted
low-level lapse rates. However, thicker clouds continue to move
into northern New York off the lake thanks to the nice moisture
source. Temperatures still look like they will remain well above
MOS values with temperatures almost everywhere the same as they
were 3 hours ago. As expected, warm air advection and a thick
blanket of cloud cover makes a perfect recipe for a "warmer"
night. Expect precipitation chances to start increasing toward
morning from south to north as a frontal occlusion tracks toward
the region.

Previous Discussion...Surface high pressure will continue
to shift eastward tonight as a decaying surface low digs
southwards. Southwesterly flow will lead to a chance of rain
showers at lower elevations and snow levels generally above
2500ft. This activity will wane somewhat overnight. Lows will be
a degree or two above average with plentiful cloud cover. On
Tuesday, a new surface low develops near the New England
coastline as a vort max rounds the base of a longwave trough
just south of our area. The jet stream will become more zonally
oriented, which will place us in a more favorable location of
the jet. Modest forcing for ascent over New England should allow
widespread shower development, but not a washout scenario. Any
snow showers should be confined to 3000ft elevation owing to
warm air advection. This will also allow temperatures to get
somewhat warmer for Tuesday with highs in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Heading into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, shower
coverage will decrease as strong vorticity maxima shifts east of
our region. Snow levels will begin to fall towards 1000ft
elevation with temperatures cooling and the surface low
deepening off the coast. Some wrap around moisture and north to
northwest flow will drive upslope snow Tuesday night. In
general, expect 1-3 inches across the highest peaks with the
rest seeing under an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 444 PM EDT Monday...The upper level trough will be
continuing to deepen to our north and east so we should see
some orographic wrap around showers. However snow totals
Wednesday shouldn`t be that high as we lose RH in the DGZ and
total column moisture will be on the low side. We could pick up
another 0.5 to an inch on the western slopes above 2500 feet.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see an image from Mt Mansfield with 3-6
inches total from Tuesday night through Wednesday. Lower
elevations may see some flurries but no accumulation is
expected.

Its going to be seasonable cool on Wednesday with highs in the
lower 40s but given recent trends I did increase temps both
during the day and overnight by a couple degrees.

An upper level ridge and surface high start to build in on
Thursday and Thursday should be rather cold. Expect highs in the
mid 30s to near 40 in the Champlain Valley with modest 7-12mph
winds out of the north to northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 444 PM EDT Monday...As we head into the weekend we`re
looking at the potential for a wet weekend as an upper level
trough over the Great Lakes begins to interact with a developing
coastal low. As an overview the system will be too warm for
snow and the system doesn`t appear to phase given latest trends
in the forecast. With quite a few models runs between now and
then its possible something could deepen and phase but for the
time being its worth noting that we`ll most like just see
scattered rain showers over the weekend.

Temps over the long term will continue the trend of being well
below normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and light winds are
expected to prevail through the evening and overnight hours
tonight with ceilings largely in the 3500 to 5000 ft range. KSLK
could see some influence from lake-effect precip moving off of
Lake Ontario which could bring some localized MVFR ceilings from
02Z to 07Z. Showers will overspread all terminals during the
late morning and afternoon hours as a frontal occlusion moves
through the region. Instead of the typical stratiform precip
pattern, it appears precipitation will be very showery with
precipitation on and off through much of the day. Given warmer
temperatures tomorrow, all precipitation will fall as rain at
the terminals with period of MVFR conditions mixed with VFR
conditions when rain showers are observed.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Clay


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