Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 120729
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move down from Canada today. This feature will
drier air to the region along with increasing amounts of sunshine as
the day wears on. High temperatures will be at or slightly above
seasonal normals. The high will persist over the region tonight and
for the first half of Sunday. As a result, look for more of the same
with dry weather continuing and highs on Sunday very similar to
Saturday. A pattern change will take place Sunday night through
early next week. A developing upper level low pressure system will
bring more clouds and showers to all of northern New York and
Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...Well defined shortwave trough noted
in water vapor is moving into northern Vermont early this
morning. This is helping to maintain areas of showers across
Rutland and Windsor counties. A number of locations have
received at least a tenth of an inch of rain with a few
locations around a quarter inch. Most of this precipitation will
be out of the area just after 12z and sharp clearing line of
clouds over our northern areas will continue to push southward.
Thus expect increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wears on
with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. High pressure
remains over the area tonight and thus dry weather will continue
with lows in the 50s and a few 40s in the mountains. Trends in
the data for Sunday now support the idea for slower timing of
precipitation with developing upper level low pressure system.
Have essentially kept much of Sunday dry with just a slight
chance of showers for parts of northern New York late in the
day. Highs will be very similar on Sunday compared to Saturday
with readings in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...As we have been advertising for
several days now...weak shortwave and associated front and
surface wave approach Sunday night. Very little fanfare
initially but some moisture advection along frontal boundary
will increase moisture and chance of showers Sunday night.

Quickly on the tail of the first is a second, stronger shortwave
that will dig a deep trof, thus holding the frontal boundary across
NY Monday-Monday night until it rounds the base. This energy,
increasingly cooler pool of air aloft and some BINOVC between
initial system and this during peak heating will likely bring
showers with scattered t-storms Mon aftn-eve. Model capes 500-
1500 J/KG but really depends on how much breaks in the
overcast. Wind profiles don`t look like much for severe but
PWATs increasingly modestly to 1.25-1.5 thus some heavy rain but
no concerns of any impacts ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...Front and upper trof slide east of
FA Monday night but still in cyclonic flow awaiting the James
Bay bowling ball to drop southward Tue with model guidance
showing consensus that it should reside well NNE of the border
compared to earlier runs and slowly lift ENE Wed/Thu with larger
trof still anchored across the east until Thu ngt-Fri. Friday
will see some shortwave ridging before another strong northern
stream shortwave and surface reflection impacts Fri ngt or next
Sat.

Details: Second cold front moves through Tue aftn-Tue ngt but with
less available moisture and CAPE but with strong upper
shortwave can`t rule out a chance of showers, especially VT
mountains.

On Wed...upper trof axis still across area with more sunshine
for some instability and limited moisture except closer to
canadian border and upper low thus an aftn -shra for northern
sections possible.

Thu...Trof axis slowly shifting east but slight moderating
temperatures on the backside and ahead of shortwave ridge should
keep things dry.

Fri...Aforementioned shortwave ridge and surface high in control but
quickly departing late in the day/night as next northern stream
vigorous shortwave and complex moves through Friday night. Good
moisture pooling (PWATs increasing to near 1.5") along/ahead of
front Fri ngt with showers and possible t-storms despite being
at night with strong diffluent jet and cold pool aloft. This
threat likely continues on Sat with breezy/windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...MVFR conditions will continue at KRUT
through about 12z as periods of rain showers move southeast
across southern Vermont. Elsewhere there is quite a bit of cloud
cover, but ceilings are in the VFR category. Eventually the
clouds and showers will move southeast out of the area between
12z and 18z and make all areas VFR for the remainder of the time
period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the
period.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Evenson


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