Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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412
FXUS61 KBTV 210754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and cloudy weather is expected today in advance of a late
season winter storm on track to affect the area tonight into
Saturday morning. This storm will bring rain and wet snow to the
valleys and higher elevation heavy snows during the period.
Behind this system briefly milder weather returns by Sunday
before a strong cold front ushers in much colder air for next
Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 354 AM EDT Thursday...A mainly uneventful day remains on
tap for the area as we remain on the western edge of departing
surface ridge to our east and north of developing low pressure
across the Carolinas. Expect a broad increase in cloudiness
through the day with perhaps a light sprinkle or brief bout of
light rain here and there as leading moisture associated with an
approaching upper trough streams northward into the area. Highs
a tad cooler than yesterday given the abundance of afternoon
clouds - ranging mainly through the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Thursday...A late season winter storm remains
on track for the region tonight into Saturday morning as
deepening low pressure lifts from the Delmarva into the NY Bight
northeastward into the Gulf of Maine and far eastern New
England. Forecast challenges remain in regard to boundary layer
thermal profiles, resultant p-type and the evolution of the
850/700 mb height fields as they close off and shift east over
time. Did lean toward some of the cooler side of guidance,
especially by Friday into Friday night as low pulls off to our
east and flow trends gusty northwesterly. That said, this will
have all the hallmarks of a typical late winter/early spring
system with heaviest snowfall across the higher terrain of the
Greens/Adirondacks with considerably less in lower elevations
where predominant p-type will be rain or a mix of rain/snow
until Friday afternoon/evening. Using a blend of selected
guidance and a trend toward heavier QPF in general across
northern NY have opted to expand Winter Storm Watches to include
the eastern portions of the SLV which agrees well with ensemble
plume/WPC guidance. While steadier accumulating snows will
arrive at summit levels tonight, the heaviest activity should
occur Friday evening into Friday night as the closed mid level
lows pull east, the boundary layer cools and backside
deformational dynamics pivot into the area. As touched on above,
the pressure gradient will tighten considerably during this
period and with sensible temperatures cooling into the 20s to
around 30 some blowing and drifting snow will be possible,
especially in elevated/exposed terrain where gusts over 30 mph
should be realized. Latest storm total snowfall output mimicks
prior forecasts to a large degree, though heavier totals were
expanded into the eastern SLV. This would suggest 24-36 hour
amounts will range from sub- advisory/advisory levels in the
Champlain and CT River Valleys as well as western Rutland
County, VT. Heavier, warning level amounts will be retained
across the higher elevations of the Green Mountains and
Adirondacks above 1000-1500 feet where summit totals nearing 2
feet will be possible. In the eastern SLV totals to near 1 foot
will also be possible.

By Saturday occluded surface low will pull fairly quickly eastward
with steadier morning snows tapering off by afternoon. It will
remain blustery as highs top out in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure moves into the region as
skies clear Saturday night leading to a cold overnight in the teens
and low 20s. With the mostly clear skies and brief shift to
west- southwest flow, Sunday will see a quick reprieve of cold
temperatures as highs bounce back to slightly above seasonal
normals. This warm up is short lived as a cold front and an
associated round of snow showers moves though the region late
Sunday night into Monday and temperatures drop back to 5-10
degrees below normal into the middle of next week. Look for
highs early next week in the 20s to low 30s and overnight lows
in the teens and single digits. Welcome to spring in the North
Country.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions and light winds will
persist through the overnight hours and much of Thursday. An
approaching storm system will bring MVFR ceilings to southern
terminals after 20Z Thursday and work northward to the
remaining terminals close to 00Z Friday. Precipitation, which
looks to be a rain/snow mix will move into KSLK and KRUT right
around 00Z and then further north to all other terminals by 04Z.


Outlook...

Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SN, Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
     for VTZ003-004-006-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
     for NYZ029>031-034.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Clay/Verasamy



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