Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 102004
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool showery weather continues this evening, and once again by
Tuesday afternoon and night as upper level low pressure tracks
across the region. Behind this system a general return to drier
conditions looks more likely for the latter half of the work
week, though a spot, higher elevation shower cannot be ruled out
on almost any given day. Temperatures start the period on the
seasonably cool side, then trend milder toward the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...The forecast remains generally on
track for tonight. Shortwave energy on the south side of larger
cyclonic upper gyre across the central ON/QE border will track
quickly east from the eastern Great Lakes this evening. This
feature will spark a 2-4 hour window of scattered to numerous
showers, most prevalent across central and northern VT from
about sunset through midnight/200 am or so. Activity should be
somewhat less in coverage across the SLV/Dacks and centered more
in the late afternoon/early evening time frame. Low
temperatures tonight a blend of better performing guidance -
mainly mid 30s to lower 40s with a few lower 30s in elevated
terrain of the Dacks/southern Greens. With the latter areas at
or just past the median last spring frost date, a Frost Advisory
has been issued for these zones, generally in the 200-700 am
time frame.

On Tuesday/Tuesday night, aforementioned Canadian upper low pivots
southeasterly atop the region. Anomalously cool air aloft (H5 temps
to -30C) should allow a general reblossoming of instability showers
by the mid to late afternoon hours across central/northern counties
with an isolated rumble of thunder possible. Activity continues into
the overnight hours with main trough passage, though will tend to
lessen in coverage beyond midnight. Temperatures remain on the
seasonably cool side, with highs mainly in the 50s to around 60 and
overnight lows from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday....Generally similar conditions across
the North Country continue for Wednesday as our area remains
under dry northwest flow. As the coldest air aloft departs
eastward, so too will instability shower chances. So thinking
isolated to scattered showers will be confined to the northern
Green Mountains and points eastward. Can`t completely rule out
an widely isolated thunderstorm, but showers will likely be too
shallow to produce thunder. No significant change in high
temperatures compared to recent days as 850 millibar
temperatures remain roughly zero Celsius midday with the upper-
level trough gradually exiting. Dry boundary layer conditions
support full mixing and therefore temperature differences will
mostly be a function of elevation across the region, with
temperatures reaching the 60s in the valleys and ranging through
the 50s above 1000 feet elevation.

With the dry air mass and light winds, still expecting another round
of patchy frost possible for portions of the North Country. At
this point, advertising temperatures mainly in the upper 30s for
most habitable locations, but may need to lower these a bit
across portions of eastern Vermont where temperatures tend to
drop particularly well on good radiational cooling nights.
Without a strong ridge of high pressure overhead, still may see
some passing clouds that would inhibit cooling in the northwest
flow, but overall skies should trend clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...Generally a seasonable period is
expected with no widespread precipitation. However, light
amounts of rainfall are expected, especially from Saturday
through Monday, associated with daytime rounds of showers, with
best chances across the higher terrain. Thursday and Friday our
area will be positioned on the edge of the westerlies as an
upper- level ridge is slow to slide into the region. On both
Saturday and Sunday there should be greater instability to
support popcorn showers and isolated thunderstorms with light
flow. For now, advertising a similar scenario for Monday,
although without a strong steering flow the certainty on how
that day unfolds is less clear.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR at most terminals through the TAF
period. SCT/BKN VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL range expected
through 00Z under variable winds less than 10 kts. Band of
showers to likely affect mainly VT terminals in the 00-06Z time
frame during which cigs lower gradually. Some MVFR possible,
especially at KMPV as winds remain light overnight. After 12Z
Tuesday, VFR continues with cigs in the 040-090 AGL range under
modestly gusty west/southwest flow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered
SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ018-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...JMG


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