Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 121950
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
As skies clear and winds calm, areas of frost are expected by
daybreak. With mostly sunny skies and weak warm air advection,
temperatures will warm several degrees from recent days into the
mid and upper 60s, and a line of gusty showers with thunder
possible will impact northern portions of the North Country late
in the day. Seasonably warm days with scattered showers on
Friday, and a few thunderstorms over the weekend, are expected.
Although additional showers cannot be ruled out, a drier trend
is expected by the middle of next week with temperatures dipping
slightly.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 349 PM EDT Wednesday...Showers will quickly wane after
dark with departure of a piece of upper-level energy and loss of
daytime heating. Surface high pressure over the Midwest will
nose eastward tonight. With no additional organized upper-level
systems moving through the region in light northwest flow, we
should see mainly clear skies supporting cold and calm
conditions sufficient for frost with low temperatures between 32
and 36 in many areas. Therefore, the frost advisory remains in
effect for the early morning hours across the Saint Lawrence
Valley and portions of central, northwest, and southern Vermont
where the growing season has begun. Wet surface conditions where
showers were most prolific today could support fog given the
expected radiational cooling, but the possibility is low enough
to exclude from the forecast at this time.

For tomorrow, the daytime should be quite pleasant with another
day of modest breezes but with more sunshine and higher
temperatures. Highs will be well into the 60s in most populated
locations and again relatively chilly at elevation due to
deeply mixed air. For areas near the international border, some
interesting weather will arrive towards evening, as a wide
array of model guidance depicts an organized cluster of showers
with embedded thunder dropping southward. Have gone with gusty
showers with a slight chance of thunder as convective potential
is marginal for thunderstorms, but there appears to be
sufficientwind shear to support strong (up to 35-40 MPH)
winds, especially with relatively dry low level air in place. As
the showers continue southward after dark, they should weaken
near or south of the Champlain Valley. Otherwise, Thursday night
should be quiet with enough wind and cloud cover to prevent
temperatures from getting below the 35 to 45 range.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...Main story for the end of the work week
into the weekend will continue to be the trend of temps warming back
to normal or slightly above, along with chances for afternoon
convection each day. Latest model trends show ever so slightly
rising mid/upper level heights Friday with very weak flow below
700mb. This would tend to lean towards lesser chances for
precipitation, but soundings continue to support the idea of
isolated to scattered terrain driven showers developing in the
afternoon as some weak elevated instability develops. Anything that
does form will dissipate rapidly in the evening though for a quiet
overnight. For the weekend, it`s basically a rinse a repeat pattern
with little overall airmass change. Mornings should begin dry and
pleasant, with rising chances for scattered showers in the
afternoons. Better chances for thunder exist both days compared to
Friday with some slightly taller albeit skinny CAPE profiles and
temperatures warming firmly into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...Heading into next week much uncertainty
still exists in the forecast as there continues to be little run to
run consistency in the deterministic global models. The main players
in the forecast continue to be a quasi-stationary boundary to our
south, and a digging trough to our north, but exactly where they set
up and track is questionable. Todays runs have trended drier for the
period with both features not impacting the region, but ensemble
guidance still hints at some precipitation potential. Will continue
to offer some low chance pops, but acknowledge the forecast could go
either way at this point. The good news is that temperatures look to
remain seasonal with highs at least in the 60s and lows remaining in
the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected during the
TAF period. Currently a large cumulus field with VFR bases
across the airspace and this will persist through about 00Z
before skies clear with loss of daytime heating. Plentiful
small showers are scattered across the airspace moving
southeastward, near or over all TAF sites except for MPV, with
all sites potentially seeing brief showers but no visibility
restrictions expected. Occasionally gusty 20 knot winds out of
the northwest will be seen during this time. After 00Z, surface
inversion will develop and winds will drop off and be calm or
terrain-driven. Low potential of a short period of fog,
especially at MPV where temperatures appear most likely to fall
below their crossover value. Otherwise, clear or mostly clear
skies are expected through the remainder of the period with some
7 to 12 knot northwest winds resuming under well-mixed
conditions.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ006-
     008>012-016>019.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ026-027-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Kutikoff


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