Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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536
FXUS61 KBTV 111924
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cloudy and cool night is anticipated with some light rain showers
impacting mainly central and southern Vermont. On Saturday
developing high pressure will result in clearing skies and
temperatures warming back close to normal. A series of fronts
associated with a deepening trough will produce unsettled weather
for early next week, along with below normal temperatures,
especially daytime highs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Water vapor shows pocket of mid lvl
moisture north of Lake Ontario associated with decaying convection,
while northern jet stream energy south of Hudson Bay is diving
southward. These two pieces of energy with limited deep layer
moisture, as pws values remain <1.0" wl interact to produce a ribbon
of showers acrs the High Peaks into central/southern VT. Once again,
best opportunity for measurable precip wl be along and south of a
MSS to MPV line aft 00z this evening. Have mention a small area of
Rutland/Windsor counties with likely pops and qpf of 0.10 to 0.20,
with pops/qpf tapering off toward the International Border.
Soundings at SLK indicating shallow bl moisture trapped below
developing inversion toward sunrise, so a few patches of fog/br are
possible, but areal coverage wl be limited with clouds. Temps mid
40s to mid 50s most locations tonight. On Saturday, building weak
high pres and deep dry layer which is indicated on water vapor wl
result in clearing skies. A classic North Country Chamber of
Commerce day anticipated with plenty of sunshine by aftn and temps
warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Did trend toward the warmer
side of guidance with soundings suggesting good mixing and progged
925mb temps in the 17-19c range. Saturday night clouds increase as a
result of weak synoptic scale lift from embedded 5h vort in the
northwest flow aloft. Moisture profiles are very unimpressive with
pw values < 0.50, so anticipate just increasing clouds aft sunset
with just a spot sprinkle or two possible. Once again best potential
along and south of MSS to MPV line btwn 03z-09z. Temps wl be
influenced by clouds and should hold in the upper 40s to m/u 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...We remain under mainly northwest flow aloft
Sunday with a weak shortwave pushing down across the region.
Although fairly dry initially, moisture begins to increase late
Sunday into Sunday night, and this combined with the shortwave will
allow scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop,
mainly late in the day and overnight. Highs on Sunday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80, with overnight lows in the mid 50s to around
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Overall looking fairly unsettled through
much of next week. A stronger upper shortwave will rotate down into
the North Country Monday, with the parent upper low near James Bay.
Given the overnight/early morning precipitation expected Sunday
night, there will likely be lots of lingering cloud cover on Monday
morning, which will limit heating and instability. Still, expect
showers and some thunderstorms will likely develop during the
afternoon hours. The NAM is far more robust with the SB CAPE values
for Monday afternoon, though even the GFS is indicating some spots
could approach 1000 J/kg. Although 0-6km shear is not overly
impressive, PWATs of 1.25-1.5 inches indicate that any storms that
do pop up could produce briefly heavy rainfall. Heading into
midweek, the aforementioned upper low pinwheels down from James Bay
and spins along/just north of the international border. Hence expect
showery weather due to the cold pool aloft, especially in northern
Vermont. Can`t totally rule out a rumble of thunder or two, mainly
Tuesday afternoon. Ridging begins to build back into our area
Thursday, with drier weather expected. Temperatures will remain
fairly seasonable through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Crntly vfr conditions prevail with
south/southwest winds in the 5 to 10 knot range. Clouds wl
continue this aftn with some light rain developing aft 00z
mainly south of a MSS to SLK to MPV line. As this moisture
develops, expect cigs to trend toward MVFR conditions at MPV/RUT
and SLK with vfr vis expected. Soundings indicate a very shallow
low level inversion developing near sunrise at SLK with some bl
moisture, supporting the idea of some ground fog/br. Have
utilized tempo btwn 08-11z with 2sm br SCT003 to indicate
potential ifr conditions. Any fog/br wl lift by 12z with mvfr
cigs trending toward vfr conditions at all sites with light
northwest winds.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber



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