Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 082313
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
613 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will move across the North
Country tonight through Sunday night...but only bring light snow
showers to the area. Relatively dry weather is expected Monday into
early Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below normal right through
the middle of next week before a warming trend begins later in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 613 PM EST Saturday...Some minor adjustments to sky and
pops through the evening hours to account for current
observational trends. Clouds/flurries to hang tough across the
northern mountains tonight, though some occnl/partial breaks
will be possible just about anywhere as weak synoptic
west/northwest flow persists on the front nose of strong high
pressure across the Ohio Valley this evening. This is
transporting mid level Great Lakes moisture east/southeast into
the area and outside some tweaks see no reason to forecast
anything other than variable clouds overnight. An additional
weak impulse producing some light shsn/flurries is currently
tracking into the SLV and will makes inroads into the Dacks this
evening before weakening. Any accumulations will be very light
in elevated NY terrain. Prior discussion follows. Have a great
evening.

Prior discussion...
A weak shortwave trough is finally moving into northern New
York this afternoon with increasing clouds and some snow showers
associated with it. A second shortwave is moving into southern
Quebec late this afternoon and should also enhance some snow
shower activity. Air mass over our area is relatively dry and
thus not expecting much in the way of precipitation with most
locations receiving under an inch of snow. Lows will not be as
cold as last night with coldest 850 millibar temperatures having
shifted off to the east today. Lows will be in the single
digits and teens. Sunday starts off quiet...then another
shortwave trough moves down across southern Quebec Province. The
northern mountains and areas near the Canadian Border will have
the best chance at seeing some snow showers. Strongest forcing
remains north of the border and moisture remains limited...so
only light snow amounts are expected. Daytime highs on Sunday
will be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Should still see a threat of snow showers near the international
border Sunday evening before noticeably tapering off after
midnight Sunday night. Plenty of clouds will persist overnight
and this should keep low temperatures generally in the mid teens
to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EST Saturday...Despite surface high pressure
moving in on Monday, a layer of moisture present between
850-925mb and weak upper-level vort will provide the area with
cloudy skies and chances for flurries throughout the day...with
low sun angle this time of year we will be hard pressed to mix
this moisture from below the inversion. Additionally, upslope,
north-northwest flow, for the Champlain valley with some
moisture from Lake Champlain will help enhance these showers. No
real accumulations from these flurries are expected.
Temperatures Monday will likely be in the mid to upper
20s...have trended slightly below guidance with likelihood of
increased cloud cover throughout the day (these temperatures are
still slightly below normal for this time of year). Clouds
increase Monday night as another shortwave (and more available
moisture) approaches the area Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Saturday...Overall trend is still a relatively
quiet period for the extended with no real changes from
previous forecast...The front on Tuesday brings a chance of snow
to the area and a reinforcing shot of cold air. Temperatures
continue to remain below normal (with highs in the teens and 20s
and lows in the single digits to low teens) until high pressure
return flow trends temperatures back towards normal. Otherwise,
no real weather expected Wednesday through Thursday. We
continue to watch towards the end of the period a deep low
pressure system which will bring mixed precipitation and rain to
New England. Generally, trends have remained consistent on the
deepening closed low tracking northeastward out of the lower
Mississippi valley Friday into Saturday...only change as of this
afternoon is to disregard ECMWF 12z run as this is the only run
that has deviated from the long term trend (including previous
runs of the ECMWF)...Additionally, have strayed from Superblend
temperature profiles and closer to GFS as soundings at this time
do not look supportive of widespread freezing rain. But with
plenty of time before this system arrives, details will be
hammered out in the coming forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Variable clouds and mainly VFR expected
over the next 24 hours. Exception will be a brief MVFR/IFR shsn
at KMSS and KSLK through 02/06Z respectively. Winds light and
mainly less than 5 kts overnight. After 12Z, VFR at all
terminals with winds trending south/southwesterly from 6-12 kts
and becoming gusty into the 15-25 kt range at selected terminals
from 15-18Z onward.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...JMG


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