211
FXUS61 KBTV 211133
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of rain and snow this morning, very dry air will
quickly move in during the day allowing skies to become clear.
Brisk northwest winds are expected, gusting at 15 to 25 mph,
locally up to 35 mph in easterly downslope regions. Quick
transitions between precipitation and very dry conditions will
continue as a front crosses Saturday followed by dry weather
Sunday, and then snow lifting northeast on Monday. The overall
pattern will trend somewhat cooler than normal with periodic
showers as a broad upper trough sets up over New England for
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 719 AM EDT Friday...It`s a snowy morning across much of
Vermont right now. One of the questions this morning was whether
dynamics would be enough to cool the region enough for snow.
However, it turned out that the push of cold advection behind a
reinforcing shot of cold air was strong enough that it helped
quickly push BTV from about 41-42 down to 34 to switch us over
to snow without the need for dynamical cooling, and then the
moderate precipitation rates helped to cool us below freezing
and begin some light accumulations. It has been a bit slower to
change over in south-central Vermont, where temperatures have
remained in the mid 30s. A handful of roadways, mainly
secondary, do have snow on them. A few spots have road
temperatures still above freezing, and overall, the ground has
experienced two days in the 70s. So grassy or elevated surfaces
continue to be where most of the snow is sticking. Nevertheless,
use some extra care on roads. Just over northern New York, the
line of stark clearing is moving east. This system is on track
to depart with quick drying. Previous discussion below.

Behind the system, very dry air will establish itself.
Precipitation should exit the Northeast Kingdom around noon,
and by mid-afternoon, skies will be clear. Brisk northwest winds
will develop with gusts 15-25 mph, and in south-central Vermont
ramping up to 30-35 mph, especially for easterly downslope
areas. With the dry air coming in, relative humidity values will
fall towards 25-35 percent, except staying around 40-50 percent
in the Northeast Kingdom. Fortunately, the recent precipitation
should preclude any issues, but mainly noting it as an
impressively quick drying.

Winds go light and variable Friday night with just passing high
clouds. So some of our cold hollows could fall locally into the
teens to lower 20s, but the rest of the region should mainly be
in the mid 20s to around freezing as we enter Saturday. Saturday
will start fairly nice. Temperatures will warm into the upper
40s to mid 50s underneath plentiful Sun. The Champlain Valley
east will dry into the 30 percent RH range, with increasing
moisture across northern New York during the day. By Saturday
afternoon, a sharp cold front will track across northern New
York and reach Vermont late afternoon into the evening. Fairly
strong convergence and baroclinicity along the frontal axis
should produce scattered to numerous showers. Behind the front,
temperatures are expected to quickly plunge, with perhaps even a
changeover to snow while it is moving through. We will see
temperatures quickly go from mid 40s to around 50 down into
upper 20s to around freezing, which could result in some black
ice before incoming winds help dry pavement.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 AM EDT Friday...The cold front will continue to swing
through the North Country Saturday night with rain changing over to
snow, even at the lower elevations. Additional snow totals may top
out around an inch or so at higher terrain with well under a half of
an inch expected across the lower elevations. Dry air is expected to
filter in quickly behind the cold front so by the time the temps
aloft and the surface cool enough, precip will likely be coming to
an end. The latest guidance shows that we should expect a tenth of
an inch or less of total precipitation with this frontal passage
which will lead into building fire weather concerns for Sunday. All
signs point to dewpoints dropping into the single digits on Sunday
afternoon with the latest model guidance trending down 3-5 degrees
compared to this time yesterday. Honestly, our dewpoint forecast may
still be on the conservative side as the potential for dew points
below zero exists, especially as the forecast soundings show the
potential for a "dewpoint bomb". All this means is that dew points
may significantly drop during the afternoon due to the plethora of
dry air aloft. RH values will likely drop into the teens to mid 20s
while winds should generally be in the 7 to 18 mph range. This won`t
warrant any fire weather products but the lack of significant
precipitation ahead of this event could increase the potential for
wildfires.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Friday...A warm front will begin to lift north
across the region during the predawn hours on Monday for the
potential for a burst of snow right around the morning commute.
Temperatures will be below freezing at the onset of precipitation
which should allow for some accumulating snowfall, even in the
valleys, on area roadways. However, temperatures will rebound
quickly with warm air advection allowing surface temperatures in the
valleys to warm above freezing by mid- morning and by late morning
elsewhere. Snow will transition to rain in the warm sector but a
cold front will be move through the North Country Monday afternoon
and evening. As cold air filters back in, we will see precipitation
change back snow, especially at higher elevations. Much of next week
will see an upper level trough remain entrenched across the
Northeast with several shortwaves helping to re-amplify the upper
level feature. This will keep us cool, cloudy, with scattered snow
and rain showers depending on boundary layer temperatures. No big
systems are expected next week as this trough will act as a shield
and keep larger systems to out south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Conditions are mainly IFR over northern
Vermont, and MVFR over the rest of the region. A batch of
moderate snow is lifting northeast, creating visibility of about
3/4SM to 1SM, which should quickly lift east-northeast by 14z.
There are also some MVFR ceilings of 1000-3000 ft agl, which
should also clear quickly as evidenced by the line of clearing
moving east across the St. Lawrence Valley now. Northwest winds
are starting to pick up, mainly at 7 to 13 knots sustained with
gusts 16 to 24 right now. It should increase to 11 to 17
beyond 15z with gusts 20 to 28 knots. Skies will quickly clear
today. Following 22z, winds will trend light and variable. After
05z, winds at 2000 ft agl will begin to increase up to 30 to 40
knots, which could produce pockets of LLWS, primarily across
northern New York into 12z Saturday. Surface winds should begin
to take a preference for the south to southwest.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely RA,
Definite SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Haynes