000
FXUS61 KBTV 021432
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will back into our region today from northeast of
the area, which will increase the chances for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperatures warm back into the
mid 80s to lower 90s today with increasing humidity values. This
heat and humidity, combined with an approaching cold front will
produce scattered to widespread afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. The primary threat will be lightning and
brief heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1032 AM EDT Friday...The forecast is generally on track
for today with the main change this morning being to delay the
onset of convection by a couple of hours. Currently the region
is capped and latest NAM3/HRRR soundings don`t support it
breaking until mid-afternoon when by that time we should still
have sufficient instability to spark some thunderstorms.
Forecast highs remain on track to top out in the mid 80s to
around 90.

Previous discussion...A back door cold front will edge into
our area from the northeast today, bringing with it scattered to
numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. Surface
instability will develop as temperatures surge into the mid 80s
to around 90 degrees. We will once again see some maximum
temperature records broken, see climate section below. Some
models are indicating 1500-2000 J/kg CAPE will be present with
steep low level lapse rates, though lacking shear. Thought is
that we`ll see disorganized and slow moving storms. Not really
expecting severe storms, but could see some stronger wind gusts.
Besides watching for storms to become severe, we`ll also have
to consider threat for heavy rain as we anticipate storms will
be fairly slow moving. PWATs will be around 1-1.5 with storms
moving south into our region from Canada. Today will also be
noticeably more humid than the last couple days with increasing
dewpoints already present. Showers will linger into the
overnight though threat for thunderstorms will diminish
following sunset. Potent upper level shortwave energy will cross
our region from north to south overnight. Showers will come to
an end by early Saturday morning. Will have the potential for
some fog development as showers come to an end, especially in
areas that have rain today. Total QPF from today into tonight
will generally be around a tenth of an inch to a half an inch.
Locations which have more than one round of showers could see
more. Saturday will feature cooler drier weather with high
temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s only, this will
feel cool after the past few days we`ve had.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 419 AM EDT Friday...Rather pleasant weather is expected
for this period with crisp air. Model consensus shows the
expected vertically stacked low pressure system far enough east
of the area to not impact us. Subsidence on the west edge of
this system will support abnormally dry air. This dry air will
lead to critically low relative humidity values below 30% during
the midday hours, reflected in the NAEFS mean precipitable
water in the lowest 10th percentile of climatology. However,
with weak pressure gradient, northerly winds will be light,
limiting fire weather concerns even in areas that miss out on a
wetting rain Friday night. With little or no cloud cover and low
humidity, diurnal temperature ranges will be large with
temperatures Saturday night dropping off into the upper 30s to
mid 40s and rising into the mid 60s to low 70s for most
locations. Localized frost in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom will be possible Sunday morning given the radiational
cooling setup.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 419 AM EDT Friday...This period will be consistently cool
(highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s) with some chances
for showers each day after a shortwave trough drops into the
region from the north late Monday. The NAO teleconnections,
already having gone negative, may become more strongly negative
early next week. That is consistent with the anticipated upper
level heights in our region being lower than normal and
resulting cool weather pattern. The upstream blocking will keep
low pressure over the area, with subtle shifts in its
configuration through the week that will contribute to some
uncertainty as to when greatest chance of showers occurs.
Generally from Tuesday through Thursday there will be periodic
showers each day. While not a setup that looks like a washout or
heavy rainfall event, multiple days of rain should be helpful
where abnormally dry conditions exist in much of Vermont.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Mainly VFR to prevail through the TAF
period. Better chances for showers/thunderstorms arrive after
18z Friday. Coverage will be scattered, most concentrated at
KEFK/KMPV, but brief heavy downpours and gusty winds will be
possible with any thunderstorms, along with MVFR/IFR conditions.
Winds will be light and mainly terrain driven overnight,
picking up out of the north at 5-10 kt after 14z Friday. Areas
that have rainfall today could certainly see some fog form
overnight tonight. Some models are hinting at some lower
ceilings overnight as well as low level moisture may get trapped
under a surface inversion.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
New daily records may be set at most if not all climate sites
below over the next two days:

Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
06-02   89|1970  84|2013  88|2013  87|1996  87|1990  90|1919

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Kutikoff