Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 121701
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
101 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move down from Canada today. This feature will
drier air to the region along with increasing amounts of sunshine as
the day wears on. High temperatures will be at or slightly above
seasonal normals. The high will persist over the region tonight and
for the first half of Sunday. As a result, look for more of the same
with dry weather continuing and highs on Sunday very similar to
Saturday. A pattern change will take place Sunday night through
early next week. A developing upper level low pressure system will
bring more clouds and showers to all of northern New York and
Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1257 PM EDT Saturday...Little change need on this North
Country Chamber of Commerce day, as fair wx cumulus clouds have
developed over the trrn. Temps are warming into the mid/upper
70s with rh values dropping back into the 28 to 35% range so
far. All elements are covered well in fcst.

Previous Discussion...
Well defined shortwave trough noted in water vapor is moving
into northern Vermont early this morning. This is helping to
maintain areas of showers across Rutland and Windsor counties. A
number of locations have received at least a tenth of an inch
of rain with a few locations around a quarter inch. Most of this
precipitation will be out of the area just after 12z and sharp
clearing line of clouds over our northern areas will continue to
push southward. Thus expect increasing amounts of sunshine as
the day wears on with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.
High pressure remains over the area tonight and thus dry
weather will continue with lows in the 50s and a few 40s in the
mountains. Trends in the data for Sunday now support the idea
for slower timing of precipitation with developing upper level
low pressure system. Have essentially kept much of Sunday dry
with just a slight chance of showers for parts of northern New
York late in the day. Highs will be very similar on Sunday
compared to Saturday with readings in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...As we have been advertising for
several days now...weak shortwave and associated front and
surface wave approach Sunday night. Very little fanfare
initially but some moisture advection along frontal boundary
will increase moisture and chance of showers Sunday night.

Quickly on the tail of the first is a second, stronger shortwave
that will dig a deep trof, thus holding the frontal boundary across
NY Monday-Monday night until it rounds the base. This energy,
increasingly cooler pool of air aloft and some BINOVC between
initial system and this during peak heating will likely bring
showers with scattered t-storms Mon aftn-eve. Model capes 500-
1500 J/KG but really depends on how much breaks in the
overcast. Wind profiles don`t look like much for severe but
PWATs increasingly modestly to 1.25-1.5 thus some heavy rain but
no concerns of any impacts ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...Front and upper trof slide east of
FA Monday night but still in cyclonic flow awaiting the James
Bay bowling ball to drop southward Tue with model guidance
showing consensus that it should reside well NNE of the border
compared to earlier runs and slowly lift ENE Wed/Thu with larger
trof still anchored across the east until Thu ngt-Fri. Friday
will see some shortwave ridging before another strong northern
stream shortwave and surface reflection impacts Fri ngt or next
Sat.

Details: Second cold front moves through Tue aftn-Tue ngt but with
less available moisture and CAPE but with strong upper
shortwave can`t rule out a chance of showers, especially VT
mountains.

On Wed...upper trof axis still across area with more sunshine
for some instability and limited moisture except closer to
canadian border and upper low thus an aftn -shra for northern
sections possible.

Thu...Trof axis slowly shifting east but slight moderating
temperatures on the backside and ahead of shortwave ridge should
keep things dry.

Fri...Aforementioned shortwave ridge and surface high in control but
quickly departing late in the day/night as next northern stream
vigorous shortwave and complex moves through Friday night. Good
moisture pooling (PWATs increasing to near 1.5") along/ahead of
front Fri ngt with showers and possible t-storms despite being
at night with strong diffluent jet and cold pool aloft. This
threat likely continues on Sat with breezy/windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected at all sites
for the next 12 to 24 hours. Given the much drier air mass in
place not expecting fog/br development tonight. Maybe a very
brief window at mpv/slk near sunrise, but probability is too low
to mention in crnt taf package. Northwest winds 3 to 7 knots
this aftn, become trrn driven overnight into Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Taber


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