150
FXUS61 KBTV 120226
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
926 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snowfall will taper off across the region this evening with
quieter and milder weather expected across the region on Sunday.
Snow showers will again return to the region on Monday but will
mainly be focused across the western slopes of the Green and
Adirondack Mountains and downstream of Lake Ontario. Isolated to
scattered snow showers are expected much of next week but will be
significantly less than we saw last week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 921 PM EST Saturday...The snow just doesn`t want to quit
this evening, with locations across northern VT and portions of
northeastern NY still reporting light snow. However, the
intensity has been on a downward trend, and note that locations
to our north in southern Quebec are starting to report no
current precipitation. So overall still expect the snow to wane
and eventually come to an by around midnight. It may stay bit
more persistent in the vicinity of Lake Champlain as colder air
interacts with the relatively warmer waters, but even this snow
should end by the early morning hours. Thick cloud cover will
remain much of the night, and have bumped up expected lows a
degree or two based on the latest trends. Otherwise, the
forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Widespread light snow is expected to
continue through the afternoon hours with snow gradually
tapering off west to east during the evening. Based on the
latest trends in satellite and radar data, snow should begin
ending in northern New York around 6 PM and between 8 and 10 PM
for Vermont. Upslope areas are likely to hold onto snow beyond
the time period mentioned above given convergent northwesterly
flow interacting with the higher terrain. In addition, we are
seeing some pretty steep cold advection at the 925 mb and 850 mb
levels, as evident on Whiteface Mountain as temperatures have
been steadily falling throughout the day. This should help
increase low level lapse rates and lead to a slight increase in
the intensity of snowfall now through when the snow tapers off.
While the DGZ remains saturated, the lack of synoptic forcing
through this layer will continue to mitigate snowfall rates and
amounts with around an inch expected everywhere with around 2
inches above 1500 ft across the northern Green Mountains. As
snowfall ends and the upper level low shifts eastward, shortwave
ridging is expected to quickly build into the region in its
wake. A quiet and seasonally mild day is expected as a result
with increasing sunshine on Sunday as well as temperatures
warming into the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 254 PM EST Saturday...A clipper passes through Monday into
Tuesday, bringing more snow showers to the region. A warm front on
Monday will bring the first chance of light snow, but it looks to be
mostly restricted to parts of northern New York and the northern
Greens. Behind this front, flow becomes just enough southwesterly
that a lake effect band off Lake Ontario should reach southern St.
Lawrence and Franklin Counties late Monday and into the day on
Tuesday. The heaviest totals look to be in southern St. Lawrence
County where several inches are possible. The lake looks to enhance
snowfall a little for a portion of the central/southern Greens but
at most a couple inches are expected there. A lighter band off Lake
Huron looks to potentially affect parts of northern St. Lawrence
County. Elsewhere, upslope flow is expected in parts of the
Adirondacks and northern Greens, but with southwesterly and westerly
flow, and limited moisture, it look to be more restricted in
coverage and much less intense than the past week. Overall, the Jay
Peak area would likely receive the most. Temperatures look to be
slightly above normal during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 254 PM EST Saturday...As the clipper passes to the east,
northwest flow and cold air advection develop Tuesday night through
Wednesday. This flow will shift the lake effect to the south of the
region but it will reinvigorate the upslope snow showers across the
northern Greens and northern Adirondacks. The coverage will be more
widespread and probably a little heavier than on Tuesday. A few more
inches are expected in the typical upslope areas. Temperatures will
also fall back below normal for Wednesday, with highs back in the
teens for most areas. The upslope snow showers look to taper off
sometime Wednesday night. Another clipper makes a run at the region
for Thursday and will try to redevelop snow showers. However, the
guidance is uncertain on where to bring the best moisture and
forcing. However, regardless of its placement, any snow amounts
would be light as it will be weak and moisture starved. A third
clipper is possible over the weekend, but the more notable thing
related with it is the potential for much colder air on the
backside.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...While localized IFR conditions in light
snow will persist through 04z, in general expect MVFR to prevail
much of the overnight period. Snow and potential IFR conditions
will be most likely at KMPV/KEFK. Otherwise, ceilings to remain
1500-2500 ft through at least 10z, then low clouds dissipating
during the morning hours thereafter. Expect all terminals to be
VFR by 16z Sun. Winds will remain light through the period,
generally out of the NNW.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings