Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 230157
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
957 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After the passage of a cold front earlier today, the area will
see a clearing and cooling trend overnight on developing
northwesterly flow. High pressure will work into the region from
the west through the weekend, keeping seasonably cool
temperatures in place through Sunday with highs in the low to
mid 70s each day. The beginning of the next work week will see a
gradual warming trend with precipitation chances returning
closer to midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 954 PM EDT Thursday...No significant adjustments were
needed with this update. As anticipated, we`re seeing some
clouds developing on the upslope sides of the mountains we we
continue to see cold advection. This little bit of flow, as well
as the cloud cover, will help to limit fog potential overnight.
The clouds will also keep temperatures from dropping as much as
expected in portions of the Adirondacks, so have adjusted
overnight mins up a few degrees in some spots. Otherwise, the
forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.

Previous Discussion...Overall entering a very quiet forecast
period that will bring our first glimpse of fall-like
temperatures and humidities. A cold front is pushing
southeastward through central NY into southern and eastern VT
this afternoon, poised to exit the area this evening. A good
degree of post-frontal clearing is expected overnight,
especially in the western half of the forecast area, so
temperatures tonight will be 10+ degrees cooler than last
night`s readings. Coolest temps will be in northern NY further
behind the front, where overnight lows will be in the low 50s
with some isolated upper 40s readings expected in typical colder
hollows. Overnight lows further east will be generally in the
low to mid 50s. Fog potential overnight looks pretty low given
the gradient flow over the area with the high pressure center
still well removed to the east.

Friday morning, a trailing shortwave will rotate through the
North Country, briefly enhancing ascent overhead. Very dry
moisture profiles noted on forecast soundings however, so just
looking at some shallow cumulus clouds for the most part with
little to no chances of precipitation. Cold air advection will
continue through the day Friday as 850 mb temperatures sharply
fall to 6-8 deg C during the afternoon hours. With relatively
deep afternoon mixing anticipated, this supports afternoon highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday night will see continued
dry weather with overnight temperatures cooling again into the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 PM EDT Thursday...Ridging aloft builds into the the region
Saturday and Saturday night with weak upper trough becoming
established to our south. At the surface high pressure will also
build into the region and thus looking at dry weather for the entire
period. Temperatures at 925 millibars will be coolest on Saturday
and thus looking at below normal temperatures to start the weekend.
Highs should only be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows Saturday
night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 309 PM EDT Thursday...Upper level ridging remains over much of
the Northeast on Sunday and Monday. Weak upper trough noted to our
south on Saturday does close off to our south on Sunday and
eventually moves northeast on Monday. Any dynamic forcing associated
with this system will remain south and east of the area and thus any
precipitation from this feature should not affect us. Will therefore
keep Sunday and Monday dry with a slow warming trend expected. It is
not until the Tuesday through Thursday time period that the pattern
will change to a southwest flow aloft as the upper ridging shifts
east. This will allow for moisture return and increasing chances for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR through the period except
could be a couple hours of MVFR cigs, mainly SLK near and just
after sunrise with some mixing of low level moisture and NW
upslope flow. High pressure will build in from the west on
Friday. Light W-NW winds 3-7 kts overnight, then become
northwesterly 6-12 kts after 12Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Duell/Sisson


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