000
FXUS61 KBTV 080539
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1239 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A few weak disturbances will bring chances for light snow
showers over the weekend and early next week, as well as
reinforcing shots of below normal temperatures. The weather
becomes quiet for mid next week with a gradual warming trend
expected. At the end of next week, an area of low pressure will
bring the next chance of precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1232 AM EST Saturday...A few pesky stratus clouds continue
to linger over portions of the North Country early this morning,
with the most persistent patches over the far Northeast Kingdom
and the central Adirondacks. Expect even these areas will see
some occasional clearing though, so have left the temperature
forecast alone for now. Other than a few minor tweaks to cloud
cover to match the latest satellite trends, the forecast remains
unchanged as things are in good shape.

Previous Discussion...The cold front that passed through this
morning is beginning to move off the New England Coast. A quick-
moving, dampening upper trough passing along the Great Lakes
will pass over the region during the rest of the evening. The
main impact from this system will be an increase in mid- level
clouds. Only a handful of snow shower reports and mostly cloudy
to overcast skies are coming in across the Northeast Kingdom,
but otherwise, breaks in the cloud have resulted in decent
warming, particularly along southern Vermont, where temperatures
have neared the freezing mark. For tonight, modest cold air
advection and surface high pressure directly overhead will
result in cool temperatures, especially in cold hollows where
clearer skies are. Valleys will see lows in the single digits
except near Lake Champlain and below zero in the Northeast
Kingdom and the Adirondacks.

For Saturday, another quick moving shortwave will approach the area.
Only shallow, low-level moist convergence is evident, and the upper
jet configuration is not favorable. Though decently strong vorticity
maxima and decent low to mid-level lapse rates in the dendritic
growth zone should be able to make something out of this, even if it
is just a few hundredths of precipitation. The best snow shower
chances will be across the southern Adirondacks where some lake
moisture will be focused. Expect light accumulations less than an
inch with about an inch at the higher elevations. Of course, 12Z
guidance is less enthused about it than earlier, and it was not very
enthusiastic to begin with. Amounts could be generous. Highs on
Saturday will be below average in the teens to mid 20s. The weak
shortwave shifts out of the region Saturday night with snow chances
diminishing with low temperatures in the teens across valley regions
and single digits in the Adirondacks and east of the Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EST Friday...Northwest flow aloft will be over the
area with dry weather expected along with below normal
temperatures. There will be a shortwave trough moving across the
southern half of Quebec late in the day and especially Sunday
night. Most of the dynamic forcing remains north of the
border...but there could be a few mountain snow
showers...especially over northeast Vermont. Highs on Sunday
will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 PM EST Friday...Relatively quiet period for the
Monday through Friday time period. Northwest flow aloft is
reinforced over the area on Monday for dry weather and below
normal temperatures. A shortwave trough drops down from Canada
late Tuesday night into Wednesday and this could bring some snow
showers to the area...but moisture is a bit limited. High
pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the region for
Thursday and Friday...which will result in more dry weather but
a gradual warming trend. Next feature of concern will be large
upper trough developing over the eastern United States and
surface low associated with this feature will affect the area
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through
Saturday morning, with some local MVFR ceilings possible at
KSLK. Clouds will thicken and lower after 16z Saturday ahead of
weak low moving in from the west. This system will also bring
the chance for light snow showers after 16z and continue through
the remainder of the forecast period. MVFR ceilings and
visibility will be possible during this time frame as well,
mainly at the mountain sites. Winds will be light and variable,
generally 6 kt or less.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Clay/Hastings