Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 150207

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1007 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A weak, mainly dry cold front will swing through the area this
evening with little fanfare. High pressure briefly returns for
Tuesday before stronger low pressure and steadier rainfall
arrive by later Wednesday into Thursday. Some of the rain may
fall heavily at times, though uncertainty remains on exact
amounts and areal placement.


As of 1005 PM EDT Monday...Frontal clouds dissipating as
forecast and some clouds from weak upper energy and WSW flow
over Lake Ontario. Forecast looks good, thus no changes.

Evening discussion...Limited scattered rain showers associated
with cold front have exited the area. Still some broken clouds
across Adirondacks and broken to overcast across VT but the
trend is improving. Doesn NOT look like a radiational fog night
with drier air, some clouds and boundary layer winds.

However, recent rain showers late today and potential for blyr
winds to lighten just before sunrise suggests some patchy fog
possible in Adirondacks and possibly in some western VT valleys
but shouldn`t be dense.

Updated zones already issued for above changes.

Afternoon discussion...A weak cold front continues to progress
steadily eastward into the forecast area as of mid- afternoon.
Despite increasing cloud cover moisture is rather limited along
the boundary and only lower-end, spotty chances for a few light
showers or sprinkles will be maintained across northern counties
through early evening. By later tonight the front will push
well east allowing shortwave ridging to build into the area with
skies becoming gradually clear in the pre- dawn hours. Low
temperatures a blend of bias-corrected MOS data
- mainly 30s to locally around 40 in the Champlain Valley.

Aforementioned high then bridges atop and east of the area
during Tuesday/Tuesday night. Tuesday should feature mostly
sunny skies and light winds with afternoon temperature maxima
topping out in the 50s. Tuesday night lows should run similar to
tonight`s readings, though tend to level off from the Champlain
Valley west after midnight as low level flow trends light
southerly over time.


As of 400 PM EDT Monday...Surface low pressure system will
track from the Northeastern Great Lakes area into Ontario on
Wednesday. Later in the day Wed, a secondary low forms off the
Delmarva coast, eventually becoming the deeper of the two lows.
GFS continues to be a bit of an outlier with a track further
west. Other global models continue to show the coastal low
tracking inside the benchmark and then north into New Hampshire.
Strong pressure gradient in place ahead of this system on Wed,
will have strong gusty winds through the first half of the day.
Precipitation will begin from west to east during the second
half of the day Wed. Still some uncertainty with how much the
low along the coast deepens, and it`s track. It continues to
look like best chance for heavy rain will be across Southern and
Eastern Vermont. An inch to an inch and a half of rain is
anticipated, and up to two inches is not out of the question.
Somewhere should get a good dump of rain with strong
frontogeneticforcing with low possibly bombing out off the New
England coast. As coastal surface low lifts northeastward,
upper level low will drop in behind it and cold air will be
enough to change over some of the rain showers to snow showers
over the higher elevations.


As of 410 PM EDT Monday...Wrap around showers will continue on
Thursday into Thursday night. Should be cold enough for some
snow showers in the higher elevations of VT and Northern NY.
Upper level trough will be overhead with decent short wave
energy as well. Showers will taper off early Friday morning.
Surface and upper level ridges will then be over the region from
Friday through Sunday, should be a nice weekend. Looking ahead
to next the weather looks pretty active with next system to
bring next chance for showers on Monday and possibly a large
scale system for mid-week.


Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period. BKN/OVC cigs generally in the 050-100 AGL range
expected into the 00-06Z time frame with mainly dry frontal
passage, trending mainly SKC by 12Z Tuesday as high pressure
builds atop the region. Winds WNW 5-10 kts abating to 5 kts or
less overnight, then light southwest aft 12z Tuesday.

Currently no mention of near term discussion but may
need to monitor of possibility aft 09z at KSLK.


Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.




LONG TERM...Neiles
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