Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 072347
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
747 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level trough of low pressure will bring
showers to parts of northern New York tonight and Saturday while
Vermont remains on the dry side. Eventually the upper trough
moves east and the entire area could see some showers Saturday
night into early Sunday. At this time much of Sunday is looking
dry, but there could be some afternoon showers developing.
Temperatures this weekend will continue to remain a few degrees
below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 747 PM EDT Friday...Slow eastward progression of upstream
precipitation continues this evening. Current forecast shows
best precipitation potential over parts of the Saint Lawrence
Valley tonight, but rest of the area to remain dry. Dry air mass
is in place and not enough forcing to overcome the dry air for
precipitation. Again going forecast has this handled well.
Should see plenty of clouds overnight and this will limit the
amount of cooling overnight. Thus lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s looks real good.

With system moving up the coast on Saturday the upstream upper
trough will struggle to move east. Thus the majority of the
precipitation will remain over portions of northern New York and
struggle to move east across the remainder of the area.
Eventually there could be some late day showers over Vermont,
but most of the day should remain dry. Highs will generally be
in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 747 PM EDT Friday...Very brief ridging builds in Sun
morning ahead of next system approaching fm the southwest as
upr low slides south into Ontario fm Hudson`s Bay. This will
allow temps to rise into the 60s acrs most locations, just
several degrees below normal. Clouds begin to increase thru the
aftn but still enough to warrant partly sunny mention. Pops
increase after 06z Monday with likely pops acrs srn half of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 747 PM EDT Friday...System quickly departs to the east
Mon afternoon leaving cloudy and cool conditions thru Wednesday.
Upr trof passes across the area on Tuesday with shower chcs
expected as cold pool moves acrs. Clearing skies on Wednesday
night may allow deeper valleys over VT to see patchy frost by
Thu morning. Upr ridge builds in quickly behind departing low
with highs in the m60s expected on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through
the period. Ceilings are generally above 8000 feet and will
lower into the 3500 to 6000 foot range after 12z. Any showers
will be confined to northern New York and have mentioned VCSH
for KMSS and KSLK, but no obstruction to visibility is expected.
Winds will be 10 knots or less through the period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...NWS CAR
LONG TERM...NWS CAR
AVIATION...Evenson


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