Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 231416
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1016 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue before rain moves back into the
region tonight and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday with the
chance for snow on Wednesday as precipitation tapers off. Only
minor accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm
temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on
Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal
for the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes
place Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return Saturday
afternoon into the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Tuesday...Already warming up out there this
morning, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 areawide.
The south winds are gusty as well, with 15 to 25 mph gusts
fairly common, locally up to 30 mph in the Champlain Valley and
northern side of the Adirondacks into the St Lawrence Valley.
Dewpoints are low as well, and with temperatures a tad warmer
than expected, relative humidity values are currently 25 to 35
percent over a vast majority of the region. We are already
starting to see some increasing moisture though, as evidenced by
clouds starting to filter into the St Lawrence Valley. Still,
the slight upward trend in winds and slight downward trend in
relative humidity only serves to heighten fire weather concerns
today. See the Fire Weather section below for additional
details, or our Special Weather Statement issued earlier this
morning. We`ll continue to watch trends closely going forward,
but have made slight adjustments to the aforementioned
parameters to match what we`ve seen so far this morning. No
other changes were needed with this update.

Previous discussion... Despite south to southwest flow, the air
today will again be very dry. A range of high res guidance
suggest the coldest dewpoints will be late morning before
increasing. However, efficient warming will still yield dewpoint
depressions around 40 with relative humidity values in the
20s(maybe staying just above 30 percent in the St. Lawrence
Valley) from noon through 7 PM today. Combined with increasingly
gusty south winds of 20 to 30 mph, fire weather concerns are
present as conditions are near pre-green up criteria for Red
Flag in the northern Champlain Valley. We`re fortunate that the
area with the lowest RH and highest gusts today were where
showers were most concentrated a few days back.

With little moisture, we will efficiently warm into the 60s today.
It`ll be a gorgeous day if you`re willing to stand some breezy
weather. South winds will maintain warm weather overnight, and
then a strong upper trough will usher in some precipitation
overnight and into Wednesday. The system is most impressive for
the sharp deformation axis and strong frontogenesis in
conjunction with favorable coupling of surface convergence with
some upper divergence at the left exit of an upper jet. The
system is less impressive for its moisture parameters and fast
moving nature, which will act as limiters to overall
precipitation amounts. Regionally, amounts will be lowest in
southern Vermont and particularly the Connecticut River Valley
around a tenth or less. Further north, about 0.20-0.50" is
expected. Along the international border in New York, some
locations may observe about 0.75" of liquid. Strong cold
advection on the backside will drive cold, dense air near the
surface and make for a transition to some snow before it clears
the region. Snow should be fairly short-lived and antecedent
warmth will preclude much in the way of accumulations, but parts
of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could approach
1" with perhaps 2" at summit levels. Daytime highs across the
northern tier will likely happen in the morning/early afternoon
before the front crosses with 40s to lower 50s in southern
Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A cold, dry airmass will move into the
region in the wake of a strong cold front that moves through
Wednesday, which will quickly bring any precipitation to an end. The
dry air and calm winds will allow for strong radiational cooling,
with overnight lows dropping into the 20s, and even the teens in
some locations.

Dry conditions will continue for Thursday as the region remains
under the influence of high pressure. Daytime highs will be cold by
late April standards, with highs climbing into the upper 40s to mid
50s. Despite the cooler temperatures, abundant sunshine and light
winds across the region will make it fairly pleasant. Another cold
night can be expected overnight Thursday into early Friday morning
with clear skies and light winds, with temperatures dropping into
the 20s to near freezing once again

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Another dry and sunny day will round out
the work week as high pressure continues to shift eastward, with
increased southerly flow allowing for warmer, seasonable
temperatures. Precipitation chances will increase as we head into
the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves rotate into
the region, although guidance is still fairly spread with the exact
timing of these features. The other thing to consider is the amount
of dry air across the region these features will have to overcome
for measurable precipitation. Given the uncertainty at this point,
continued to stick with the NBM. Temperatures will continue to warm
up through the weekend, with highs in the 60s and possibly 70s by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Expecting mainly VFR conditions the next
12 hours. Skies are mostly clear with localized pockets of high
clouds. South winds are beginning to pick up, but with a wide
range of speeds at this time. These will continue to increase,
and generally expect south to southwest winds at 7 to 14 knots
with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Winds diminish after 22z to 00z, but
remain at 5 to 10 knots sustained. Precipitation will begin to
approach from the west about 00z to 03z and slowly spread east
beyond 06z Wednesday. Gradually falling ceilings will begin to
take place across KMSS and KSLK down to 2500-3500 ft agl. About
10z, a wind shift will start to reach KMSS as a strong frontal
boundary dives southeastwards and cross through the region
beyond 12z Wednesday. Lower ceilings and visibility will start
to slide east as well.

Outlook...

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Likely SN,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather is expected this
afternoon. The core of the lowest dewpoints will happen this
morning and early afternoon, but efficient heating will continue
to produce large dewpoint depressions. The minimum RH values
are expected to be slightly higher compared to yesterday, but
still likely to dip into the 20 percent range. Parts of the St.
Lawrence Valley may stay above 30 percent depending on how
quickly incoming moisture arrives. Based on our local red flag
criteria, we are expected to hit red flag conditions (25+ mph
winds and RH below 30%) late this morning into this evening.
However, fuels remain sufficiently moist to prohibit the
issuance of a red flag warning. Nevertheless, fine fuels such as
leaf litter and twigs are sufficiently dry to start a few brush
fires. As such, open burning is not encouraged today. Please
visit or contact your local forestry or environmental protection
services for additional information. Remember, the state of New
York has a burn ban in place through May 14th.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes
FIRE WEATHER...Clay


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