Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 051414
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Much quieter weather day expected across the region with just a
few scattered showers through early afternoon, followed by
increasing sunshine. Temperatures will warm to near normal
values with southwest winds. Dry weather is anticipated for the
reminder of this week with temperatures slowly climbing to above
normal values by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1014 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall forecast in good shape
with isolated to scattered showers expected through early
afternoon. Well defined shortwave trough is lifting north into
Canada and thus dynamic support will be weakening as the day
wears on, but just enough instability remains over the area to
help generate the isolated to scattered showers.

Previous Discussion...
Convection continues acrs the SLV this morning associated with
potent 5h vort interacting with sfc based cape values in the 500
to 800 j/kg per latest. Thinking this activity will slowly
decrease in areal coverage/intensity this morning as instability
decreases acrs the dacks. Have continued to mention likely to
cat pops for SLV, but taper to chc for northern CPV and parts of
northern VT. Temps under southwest flow will warm into the l/m
70s to lower 80s.

Quick update to expand the areal coverage of precip acrs slv
and dacks this morning. In addition, some lightning activity has
been detected so have mention schc for thunder in grids from
northern NY into extreme northern VT thru 15/16z this morning.
Dynamics are strong, so a rumble or two of thunder is possible
thru the morning hours. Otherwise, fcst in good shape. Also, we
should be able to drop the Ausable River Flood Warning in the
next 1 to 2 hours, given the fast rate of fall.

Water vapor imagery shows short wave energy traveling acrs
western NY with pocket of PVA and mid lvl moisture. This
energy/moisture will continue to swing acrs northern NY this
morning and central/northern CPV by 15z and thru northern VT by
18z. Have mention low likely pops for the dacks, but taper
values into the chc range acrs the CPV into northern VT for
today. Large scale subsidence develops behind short wave energy
and sounding show deep layer drying, which should result in
clearing skies by early to mid aftn for most locations. Clouds
will lingering the longest over the mtns of northern NY and VT.
Progged 925mb temps in the 15c to 18c range support highs l/m
70s to lower 80s today, which is very close to normal. Tonight,
soundings indicating developing llvl jet of 35 to 45 knots at
4000 feet agl with still some gradient flow acrs our cwa,
thinking this will limit fog potential. Temps will drop back
into the upper 40s to upper 50s overnight. By Thursday, 1020mb
high pres over the central Great Lakes builds into our fa, as
mid/upper lvl trof weakens. This will result in dry conditions
with just a few fair wx cumulus clouds developing over the trrn.
Highs generally in the mid 70s to l/m80s for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...Another refreshing night on track for
Thursday night. Surface high pressure will stay centered over
our area, which will keep flow light. Increasing subsidence may
keep a few clouds in the area, but any areas that do clear out
have the potential to fog in during the early morning hours.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s. The center of the high will
shift east during the day and weak southerly flow will commence
as a weak warm front moves northward. Can`t rule out some
isolated showers during the day as the warm front lifts through,
especially over southern VT, but still thinking the majority of
the area remains dry. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
- a few degrees warmer than the previous day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...Great weekend in store for the North
Country. Can`t rule out a spotty shower or two early Saturday
as an upper-level shortwave moves through, but by Saturday
afternoon heights will be rising and the area should be mainly
dry. Surface high pressure builds back in Sunday...so dry
throughout...but warmer with highs returning to the mid to
upper 80s for most of the area. Southwesterly return flow
setting up Monday will usher in a higher PWat air mass. Shower
chances increase Monday afternoon with increasing instability
and moisture, along with shortwave energy moving through.
Temperatures Monday will again be in the mid to upper 80s.
Humidity will also be on the increase as dewpoints climb to the
mid to upper 60s, and possibly near 70 in parts of the Champlain
Valley.

The middle of the week looks to feature warmer and unsettled weather
with southwesterly flow continuing to bring in increasing moisture
and instability.  Temperatures will be above normal in this period
with highs in the mid 80s and maybe into the low 90s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Radar shows a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms acrs the Saint Lawrence Valley with some
lightning. This activity has the highest potential to impact
slk/mss with some lightning, brief gusty winds to 30 mph and
localized pockets of mvfr/ifr cigs/vis thru 14z. Further east
have mention of just vcsh as areal coverage of convection will
be decreasing. By aftn expect mainly vfr conditions to prevail
at all taf sites with southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Tonight,
not anticipating widespread fog/br due to gradient flow and
progged 925mb jet of 30 to 35 knots, which will keep llvls
mixed.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Taber


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