Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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305
FXUS61 KBTV 161428
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1028 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure off the southern New England coast this
morning will continue to bring widespread precipitation to the
North Country today. Rain and snow taper off after sunset this
evening, with generally drier conditions forecast for the
weekend, though some spotty showers are possible. Unsettled
conditions continue into next week with on and off chances for
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1011 AM EDT Friday...Overall, going forecast remains on
track with only slight adjustments needed. Radar reveals
decreasing coverage in rain across portions of northern New York
and have decreased precipitation chances across this area
accordingly. We continue to see high elevation wet snow across
the south/central Vermont with rain within broad valleys. Snow
totals thus far have been in the 2 to 6 inch range with reports
of 6 to 9 inches above 1500 ft in southern Vermont. An
additional 3 to 6 inches is expected for these locations today.
Elsewhere, rain will continue throughout the day with an
additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid. The only other forecast
adjustment at this point was to increase winds within the St.
Lawrence and northern Champlain Valleys as northerly flow
becomes funneled down the valleys. Rest of the forecast remains
in good shape.

Previous Discussion...Forecast remains right on track for
the next 36 hours with little change made. Current satellite and
surface analysis shows a deep closed upper level circulation
centered over PA/NY with surface low pressure right over the
benchmark. Deep east/southeast flow continues to stream rich
moisture in off the Atlantic with widespread valley rain/snow
and higher elevation snow continuing through the night. Per area
webcams as of 06Z, snow has made it to the valley floor across
portions of the lower Connecticut River Valley and we`ve noted a
slow uptick in power outages in Windsor county due to the
weight of the snow on tree limbs. A few ski resort webcams still
in operation show about 6" at Okemo, 4" at Sugarbush and about
2" at Stowe which is all right in line with what we`ve been
thinking over the past 24 hours. As the surface low pulls
northward over the Cape later this morning and pinwheels there
for the afternoon we`ll continue to see precipitation feed into
the region mainly from the Adirondacks eastward while showers
over the St. Lawrence Valley slowly taper off. Thermal profiles
for today support snow continuing above 1500 feet while below a
mix or a little more towards rain is likely with little
additional accumulation. Storm total amounts by the end of the
day still look to stand at 6-12" in the warning area and 4-6" in
the advisory with the main impact being scattered to numerous
power outages and potentially slick higher elevations roadways.

After midnight, the coastal low begins to pull away and
precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east with
just a few spotty showers lingering into Saturday. Highs today
won`t budge much from current readings in the mid 30s to low
40s, but should warm into the mid/upper 40s Saturday. Abundant
cloud cover should keep temps from dropping below freezing for
most locations tonight, with lows generally forecast in the mid
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 253 AM EDT Friday...Mid/upper lvl closed cyclonic
circulation wl be slowly moving away from our fa, but still
lingering moisture in the 850 to 500mb layer, along with weak
channeled vorticity in the flow aloft wl produce additional chcs
for showers. As mention by previous fcster, expect a diurnally
driven showers, with peak areal coverage occurring during the
aftn hours. Overall, qpf wl be light and highest pops/qpf values
confined to the trrn. Temps are near normal for lows/highs
during this time period, supported by 925mb temps in the 4-6c
range on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Friday...An active days 4 thru 7 anticipated,
with trends for a slower/stronger system for mid week. Similar
to Sunday, expect a few diurnally driven showers to develop on
Monday aftn, but given less available moisture and weaker
forcing aloft, anticipated limited areal coverage. Guidance has
trended deeper with closing off 7/5h circulation for late Tues
into Weds, resulting in a slower fropa, along with stronger low
pres developing on front. 00z ECMWF even shows mid/upper lvl
trof becoming negatively tilted as strengthening sfc low pres
travels along sharpening 925mb to 850mb thermal gradient. This
complex thermal gradient, makes for a challenging temp fcst,
along with potential for precip to mix with snow, especially
behind boundary late Weds into Weds night. Given the uncertainty
in position of boundary, magnitude of developing 7/5h trof, and
timing issues, have continued with a prolonged period of chc to
low likely pops from late Tues thru weds time frame. Expect this
duration of pops can be cut back, once better agreement is
had btwn our large scale guidance. In addition, when event is
captured by our mesoscale models, we will be able to fine tune
thermal profiles and associated ptype issues. For now have
utilized a model blend with highs near normal for Tues/Weds,
before sliding back below normal for Thurs into Friday. If
GEM/ECMWF solutions are correct with slower fropa, most of VT
with progged 925mb temps in the 8-11c range, could see highs
well into the 50s to mid 60s on Weds. Otherwise, drier wx
returns for late week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Mix of flight categories across the
region from VFR in rain to VLIFR in heavy snow. Expect as the
morning goes on VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR and some of
the lower vsby in heavier snows will lighten and transition to
rain/snow and eventually rain this afternoon. Thus, expect
overall conditions to be MVFR/IFR from mid-morning on through
the remainder of the period. Winds will be NNE and generally
less than 10kts.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ012-
     018-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ008-
     010.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hammond/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff



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