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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
000
FGUS73 KDMX 131954
ESFDMX
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051-
053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-
135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195-
197-272300-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1130 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...
This flood outlook is for the NWS Des Moines service area. It covers
the time period for mid March through mid May 2020. It includes the
following rivers and their tributaries in north central, central and
south central Iowa...
Iowa, Cedar, Skunk, Des Moines, Raccoon, Nishnabotna, 102, Thompson
and Chariton Rivers
This outlook is the first of three scheduled spring flood outlooks
for the season. The second spring flood outlook will be issued on
February 27th. You may also refer to the NWS Des Moines Website for
more information at... http://www.weather.gov/desmoines .
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
* The risk of minor flooding is generally above normal at all
locations. The risk of moderate flooding is near to above normal
at all locations. The risk of major flooding is near normal at all
locations.
* It is important to continue monitoring weather and river
conditions--as well as future outlooks--for any changes to the
flood threat. Any future precipitation--as well as changes to
river or other weather conditions--may increase or decrease the
risk of flooding.
* Maps and graphics concerning the risk of flooding are available on
the NWS Des Moines Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Web page
at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=dmx . On that page
click on the tab above the map labeled Experimental Long-Range
Flood Risk.
* You may also refer to our web site for more information at
http://www.weather.gov/desmoines .
This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in the NWS Des Moines service area. This outlook is
divided into three parts--the first part for the probabilities of
minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water
and the final part for low water.
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding
that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than
HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Cedar River
Janesville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 7 7 5 <5 <5 <5
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford 17.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Winnebago River
Mason City 10.0 14.5 15.5 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock 13.5 18.0 20.0 : 10 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford 12.5 14.0 15.0 : 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls 89.0 92.0 94.0 : 66 42 23 18 10 8
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson 14.0 15.0 19.0 : 41 40 23 23 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Waterloo 13.0 19.0 21.0 : 34 28 7 <5 <5 <5
:Iowa River
Rowan 12.5 15.0 17.0 : 16 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Marshalltown 19.0 23.0 26.0 : 11 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Tama Hwy E49 12.5 13.0 14.0 : 26 21 17 13 <5 <5
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside 12.5 16.0 16.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Squaw Creek
Ames Lincoln Way 10.0 14.0 15.5 : 9 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30 21.5 23.5 24.5 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Colfax 18.0 19.0 21.0 : 11 10 5 <5 <5 <5
Oskaloosa 24.5 28.5 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona 17.0 18.0 22.0 : 46 19 18 10 <5 <5
Dakota City 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Boone River
Webster City 14.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
Grimes 14.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson 19.0 21.0 23.0 : 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Perry 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 67 46 27 27 14 15
:South Raccoon River
Redfield 20.0 24.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Raccoon River
Van Meter 17.0 22.0 23.0 : 20 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Des Moines IA 28 36.0 38.0 40.0 : 16 11 6 <5 <5 <5
Des Moines Fleur 12.0 16.0 25.0 : 69 49 19 17 <5 <5
:North River
Norwalk 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 15 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Middle River
Indianola 23.0 26.0 28.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South River
Ackworth 29.0 30.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar Creek
Bussey 25.0 30.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville 10.0 13.0 14.5 : 90 22 31 8 8 <5
Emmetsburg 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 50 17 10 <5 <5 <5
Humboldt 10.0 13.0 14.0 : 56 28 5 <5 <5 <5
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge 10.5 16.0 17.0 : 47 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stratford 19.0 25.0 27.0 : 30 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Des Moines 2nd Av 23.0 26.0 30.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Des Moines SE 6th 24.0 26.0 30.0 : 72 48 19 14 <5 <5
Eddyville 63.0 68.0 70.0 : 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Ottumwa 11.5 15.0 19.0 : 76 49 9 6 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Davis City 12.0 20.0 24.0 : 18 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City 25.0 28.0 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Chariton River
Chariton 19.5 26.0 29.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Moulton 36.0 37.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic 19.0 23.0 24.0 : 10 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford 24.0 25.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
ft = Feet
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cedar River
Janesville 5.5 6.1 6.8 8.2 10.2 12.4 15.1
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.8 13.4 15.5 16.4
:Winnebago River
Mason City 5.8 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.9 8.8 11.5
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock 10.7 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.6 15.8
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford 6.5 7.0 8.2 9.3 11.0 12.1 13.3
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls 86.8 87.3 88.4 90.3 91.8 94.0 96.7
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson 9.1 9.8 12.1 13.3 14.6 15.7 15.9
:Cedar River
Waterloo 9.5 9.7 10.5 12.1 13.7 16.5 20.4
:Iowa River
Rowan 8.4 9.2 10.1 11.0 12.0 12.8 14.0
Marshalltown 13.5 14.0 14.9 16.0 17.5 19.0 19.9
Tama Hwy E49 8.2 9.1 10.3 11.5 12.5 13.3 13.8
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside 6.0 6.4 7.2 7.9 9.6 11.1 11.7
:Squaw Creek
Ames Lincoln Way 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.4 6.7 8.6 12.7
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30 14.7 15.1 16.5 17.6 19.6 21.1 23.2
Colfax 11.0 11.5 13.5 15.2 17.1 18.1 19.0
Oskaloosa 12.9 13.6 16.4 18.4 21.0 22.7 23.7
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.8 17.8 18.6 20.1
Dakota City 13.5 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.3 19.0 21.7
:Boone River
Webster City 6.3 7.0 7.7 9.0 10.3 11.0 11.3
:Beaver Creek
Grimes 6.0 6.4 8.5 10.2 11.6 12.6 13.1
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson 9.0 10.3 11.6 13.4 15.8 18.2 19.8
Perry 10.8 12.3 13.9 16.1 18.1 21.1 23.0
:South Raccoon River
Redfield 5.0 6.0 7.4 9.3 10.5 15.8 18.7
:Raccoon River
Van Meter 8.1 9.2 11.3 14.2 15.8 18.9 20.9
Des Moines IA 28 27.7 28.7 30.7 33.3 34.6 36.6 38.4
Des Moines Fleur 6.9 7.9 10.2 13.3 14.8 17.4 19.2
:North River
Norwalk 12.4 13.0 15.9 17.9 20.5 22.1 22.3
:Middle River
Indianola 12.7 13.2 15.2 16.3 17.9 22.1 24.5
:South River
Ackworth 8.2 10.0 11.8 13.1 16.0 23.9 25.5
:Cedar Creek
Bussey 9.8 10.9 12.3 13.9 15.4 17.5 19.8
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville 9.7 10.0 10.5 12.0 13.3 14.1 15.5
Emmetsburg 8.9 9.0 9.8 11.0 12.4 13.0 13.4
Humboldt 8.6 8.6 9.3 10.2 11.4 12.4 13.0
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge 8.4 8.6 9.3 10.4 11.6 12.9 14.7
Stratford 13.3 14.4 15.7 17.6 19.5 21.7 22.9
Des Moines 2nd Av 18.3 18.4 18.9 19.8 20.3 21.3 24.5
Des Moines SE 6th 19.0 21.0 22.7 24.9 25.2 28.2 28.8
Eddyville 57.6 60.2 61.0 61.5 62.2 62.8 64.4
Ottumwa 8.9 11.0 11.5 12.5 13.6 14.9 17.4
:Thompson River
Davis City 3.3 4.6 6.1 8.2 9.9 13.1 15.8
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City 5.4 10.8 14.7 18.8 20.9 22.0 22.5
:Chariton River
Chariton 11.0 14.8 16.1 17.2 17.6 18.6 19.4
Moulton 21.4 25.0 27.3 29.7 33.4 33.9 34.3
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic 4.1 5.2 7.5 12.1 15.2 19.1 19.9
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford 13.1 14.7 16.2 17.7 18.7 20.7 21.4
In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (ft) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cedar River
Janesville 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2
:Winnebago River
Mason City 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls 79.2 79.1 79.1 79.1 79.1 79.0 78.9
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.9
:Cedar River
Waterloo 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9
:Iowa River
Rowan 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7
Marshalltown 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8
Tama Hwy E49 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Squaw Creek
Ames Lincoln Way 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3
Colfax 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6
Oskaloosa 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2
Dakota City 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.9
:Boone River
Webster City 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
:Beaver Creek
Grimes 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.9
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3
Perry 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.6
:South Raccoon River
Redfield 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
:Raccoon River
Van Meter 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.2
Des Moines IA 28 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.3 22.8 22.5 22.4
Des Moines Fleur 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.2
:North River
Norwalk 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.4
:Middle River
Indianola 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.1
:South River
Ackworth 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9
:Cedar Creek
Bussey 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8
Emmetsburg 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2
Humboldt 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.0
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
Stratford 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3
Des Moines 2nd Av 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Des Moines SE 6th 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.6
Eddyville 52.8 52.7 52.4 51.9 50.7 50.3 49.9
Ottumwa 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.2 3.9 3.7
:Thompson River
Davis City 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1
:Chariton River
Chariton 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
Moulton 19.8 19.6 18.9 18.4 18.2 18.2 18.2
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the river,
soil moisture, snow cover and 30- to 90-day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service/s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
...Current Conditions as of February 11th 2020...
* Snow Pack...the snow pack is above normal across much of the NWS
Des Moines service area, except for portions of the western and
southeastern HSA. Water equivalent of the snow pack ranges from a
trace to between 1 and 2 inches. The highest amounts are generally
across the northern service area, where they are generally 2 to 4
inches, with 4 to 6 inches across a small part of the far northern
HSA.
* Soil Moisture...soil moisture is generally above to near record
across the NWS Des Moines service area. It is highest across the
northern and northwestern service area. It is lowest across the
southeastern service area.
* Frost Depth...ground frost generally ranges from around 3 to 15
inches across the service area. It is lowest across the southern
service area and highest across the eastern and northern service
area.
* Streamflows...streamflows are generally above normal across the
NWS Des Moines service area. They are near normal and much above
normal across the southeastern HSA. They are also much above
normal across the northwestern HSA.
* Drought Conditions...drought conditions do not exist across the
NWS Des Moines service area.
$$
Zogg
- National Weather Service
- Des Moines, IA Weather Forecast Office
- 9607 NW Beaver Drive
- Johnston, IA 50131-1908
- 515-270-2614
- Page Author: DMX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-dmx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Feb 14th, 2020 19:38 UTC