Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-095-097-099-281200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
138 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

...MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE SPRING FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN...

 * This 90-day outlook covers the period from 1/30/2023 to 4/30/2023.

.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

 * Probabilities for exceeding Major, Moderate, Minor Flood Stage...

Major Flooding...

   There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of major
flooding across the basin.

Moderate Flooding...

   There is a high risk (greater than 65 percent chance) of moderate
flooding at Oslo on the Red River.

   There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of moderate
flooding at Fargo/Moorhead and Pembina on the Red River.

   There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of moderate
flooding elsewhere across the basin.

Minor Flooding...

   There is a high risk (greater than 65 percent chance) of minor
flooding Wahpeton, Fargo/Moorhead, East Grand Forks/Grand Forks,
Oslo, and Pembina on the Red River. In North Dakota, there is a high
risk of minor flooding at Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River and
Enderlin on the Maple River. In Minnesota, there is a high risk of
minor flooding at Sabin on the South Branch Buffalo River and
Dilworth on the Buffalo River.

   There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of minor flooding
at Halstad and Drayton on the Red River. In North Dakota, there is a
medium risk of minor flooding at Mapleton on the Maple River and
Harwood on the Sheyenne River. In Minnesota, there is a medium risk
of minor flooding at Hendrum on the Wild Rice River, Crookston on the
Red Lake River, and Hallock on the Two Rivers River.

   There is a low risk (less than 35 percent) of minor flooding
elsewhere across the basin.


.OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...

  Hydrologic and climate conditions which affect each of the several
   factors that significantly determine the timing and magnitude of
    spring snowmelt flooding within the Red River of the North are
     discussed below:

 * FALL PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE...

   Fall precipitation was below normal across the basin, driest
across the lower Sheyenne basin and southern Red River Valley. Soil
moisture heading into freeze-up was lower than normal with severe
drought conditions persisting across the lower Sheyenne with
abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions elsewhere.

 * RIVER FLOWS...

   Base streamflows are near normal for this time of year.

 * FROST DEPTHS...

   Early season snow cover has led to a relatively shallow frost
layer for this time of year across much of the basin. However, depths
are quite variable (deepest across northeastern ND while shallower
elsewhere).

 * SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...

   The current snowpack and associated water content is above normal.
Since December 1, 2022, snowfall has been running above normal
(roughly 125 to 300 percent of normal), highest across the Devils
Lake and Sheyenne basins. Associated water content ranges from 1.0 to
5.0 inches.

 * RIVER ICE...

   Lake/river observations indicate ice cover is thinner and less
consistent than normal for this time of year, likely due to early
snow cover.

 * FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...
    - Further snowpack growth,
    - Rate of snowmelt/thaw,
    - Heavy rain on snow or frozen ground during thaw or peak flood,
    - Heavy rain on ice-covered rivers causing short-term ice jams.

* SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST...

  Much colder conditions are on the horizon for the short term
period. No strong storm systems (with a lot of precipitation) are
expected but sporadic shots of light precipitation (possibly with
gusty winds) are likely over the next two weeks.

* LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

  Climate outlooks indicate much colder than normal temperatures are
likely to persist. A more active weather pattern is anticipated
through the remainder of the winter and into the spring.

.NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

   The next 2023 spring flood outlook will be issued on Thursday,
February 9, 2023.


.FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES...

The following message has two sections: the first gives the
 current and normal/historical chances of river locations reaching
  their minor, moderate, and major flood category. The second
   gives the current chances of river locations rising above river
    stages listed.


...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...

            Valid from January 30, 2023  to April 30, 2023

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
 probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
 are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on historical, or normal, conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
 exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
 less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
 than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding
                Valid Period:  01/30/2023 - 04/30/2023

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (FT)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  85  55   28  26    9  15
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  23  23    9  13   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 : >95  78   45  37   19  23
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  40  32   16  17    7  10
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  72  55   25  30    7  10
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  88  61   67  53    9  18
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  64  49   32  32    5  11
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  67  50   42  42   13  21


                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (FT)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Minnesota Tributaries.....
Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow through its diversion
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  80  54   10  15   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  22  35    9  22   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  82  63   12  18   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :   6  15   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  63  48   11  18   <5   7
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  18  26   <5  11   <5   6
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  21  24    9  11   <5   8
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :   5  12   <5   8   <5   6
  CROOKSTON           15.0   20.0   23.0 :  43  46   11  24   <5   8
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :   7  22   <5  14   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  66  62   28  39   <5  10
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :   7  21   <5  12   <5   8


                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as a Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (FT)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  61  39   43  34   14  19
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  10   <5   6   <5  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :   6  10   <5   9   <5   5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  33  18   11  10   <5   8
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  12  11   <5   9   <5   8
  HARWOOD             84.0   86.0   91.0 :  41  22   28  18   11   9
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  66  25   16   8   <5  <5
  MAPLETON            18.0   21.0   23.0 :  63  35   26  14   <5   5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  32  19   19  10   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  17  23   <5   7   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :   9  20   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  19  23   14  22    6  19

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    FT  =  Feet                   (above gage zero datum)



...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage...

            Valid from January 30, 2023  to April 30, 2023


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            10.2   10.7   11.2   11.9   13.4   14.8   15.6
  HICKSON             18.3   19.8   21.4   24.5   29.6   33.5   35.4
  FARGO               19.1   20.6   21.5   24.5   28.9   34.0   36.2
  HALSTAD             15.7   18.1   20.6   23.5   28.6   33.9   37.6
  GRAND FORKS         22.3   25.2   27.6   35.0   40.0   42.7   47.5
  OSLO                19.4   24.6   27.8   33.6   34.8   35.6   37.7
  DRAYTON             22.2   26.1   29.4   34.6   39.4   40.2   42.1
  PEMBINA             29.0   32.7   37.3   42.2   47.5   49.7   51.0


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN               12.0   12.5   13.1   13.7   14.3   15.1   16.7
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               4.6    4.7    5.4    6.3    7.8    8.8    9.8
  DILWORTH            11.0   12.0   13.5   16.3   18.2   20.6   22.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          4.7    5.1    5.7    6.7    7.8    8.9   10.2
  HENDRUM             15.0   16.3   18.6   21.7   25.4   28.2   31.2
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               7.6    8.1    9.1   10.4   12.5   15.2   16.2
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               9.8   10.9   11.5   14.2   17.8   23.3   27.9
Red Lake River.....
  HIGH LANDING         5.2    5.6    6.4    8.0    9.4   10.4   12.1
  CROOKSTON            9.6   10.1   11.6   14.5   17.4   20.2   22.7
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        62.3   62.5   62.8   63.4   64.3   65.3   66.2
  ALVARADO            98.0   98.6   99.0  101.0  103.1  105.1  107.1
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            799.2  800.1  801.4  804.2  806.6  808.3  808.6
Roseau River..... considering the flow through the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               7.8    8.2    9.3   10.3   12.7   15.3   16.7


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          4.6    6.1    7.6   11.4   15.0   19.4   22.0
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          7.6    7.9    8.9   10.9   12.1   13.6   14.1
  LISBON               7.3    7.8    9.0   11.2   12.6   13.9   15.4
  KINDRED              9.9   10.6   12.2   14.4   16.7   19.4   19.8
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    10.9   11.6   13.0   14.4   16.2   19.1   19.3
  HARWOOD             77.1   77.6   78.7   83.1   87.9   91.1   91.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             7.6    8.0    8.9   10.2   11.4   12.2   13.5
  MAPLETON            14.1   15.0   16.6   18.9   21.2   22.3   22.6
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            3.9    4.4    6.0    8.4   11.5   13.6   14.5
Forest River.....
  MINTO                3.1    3.3    3.9    4.5    5.5    6.4    6.6
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             4.8    5.3    5.9    6.9    8.8   10.8   12.6
  NECHE                7.1    8.0    9.4   12.1   17.2   19.9   21.1


.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river levels and
 soil conditions using 69 years (1949-2018) of past precipitation
 and temperature conditions that were experienced for those past
 years during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can
 then be ranked from lowest to highest and assigned an exceedance
 probability. For example, for a series of 50 years, the lowest
 ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent of the
 crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook. By providing a range of peak river
 level probabilities, the NWS is contributing to the area`s Decision
 Support Services that help with long-range flood planning and
 response readiness. This outlook is a part of NOAA`s National
 Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services).

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month. However, Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks are
 issued several times leading up to the spring melt period, usually
 on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and ending
 in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, along with explanations for interpreting them,
 are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

  then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake basins are also available
  on our website, as well as 7-day forecasts when river levels at
   forecast points are in or near flood.

Additional Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly
 throughout the rest of the year during the later part of the month
  or as conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes Probability of Exceedance levels and
  low-water non-exceedance levels.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$

www.weather.gov/fgf

NNNN





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