Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
UXUS97 KGJT 301306
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
606 AM MST Wednesday, November 30, 2022

This forecast is for Wednesday, November 30, 2022:

If the trigger temperature of 40.8 F/4.9 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 270 ft/min (1.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8909 ft MSL (4070 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 41.0 F/5.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1400 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7263 ft MSL (2423 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 12/01..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:13:39 / 16:52:08 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 38 min 28 sec (578 min 28 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:02:54 MST... 29.15 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 11/30/2022 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 21616 ft MSL (16777 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14333 ft MSL (9494 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +15.2
K index......................... -7.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -63.9 -83.0   265   50   26   4.5   2.5   97.3 207.2    52.1      M    M
 45000  -58.9 -74.0   270   65   33  -2.5  -1.4   80.9 177.6    45.9      M    M
 40000  -65.2 -85.4   270   86   44   1.8   1.0   47.5 117.6    27.6      M    M
 38000  -62.6 -80.7   275   97   50   6.0   3.3   42.7 108.8    25.1      M    M
 36000  -58.7 -73.7   275   94   48   8.4   4.6   39.8 103.6    23.8      M    M
 34000  -53.9 -65.0   275   90   47   6.9   3.8   37.2  99.0    22.7      M    M
 32000  -49.2 -56.6   280   87   45   7.6   4.1   35.5  95.9    22.1      M    M
 30000  -44.6 -48.3   280   82   42   8.0   4.4   33.9  93.0    21.5      M    M
 29000  -42.2 -44.0   280   78   40   8.9   4.9   33.2  91.8    21.3      M    M
 28000  -39.5 -39.1   280   75   39   8.8   4.8   32.8  91.0    21.2      M    M
 27000  -36.9 -34.4   280   72   37   7.3   4.0   32.4  90.3    21.2      M    M
 26000  -34.9 -30.8   280   68   35   6.8   3.7   31.2  88.2    20.5      M    M
 25000  -32.6 -26.7   280   65   34   8.2   4.5   30.5  87.0    20.2      M    M
 24000  -30.1 -22.2   280   63   33  10.0   5.5   29.9  85.8    19.9      M    M
 23000  -30.2 -22.4   280   61   31   8.7   4.8   26.2  79.2    17.2      M    M
 22000  -27.6 -17.7   280   58   30   8.5   4.7   25.7  78.2    16.9      M    M
 21000  -25.1 -13.2   280   56   29   8.5   4.7   25.2  77.4    16.7      M    M
 20000  -22.6  -8.7   280   53   27   8.5   4.7   24.9  76.8    16.6      M    M
 19500  -21.3  -6.3   280   52   27   8.4   4.6   24.7  76.4    16.5      M    M
 19000  -20.1  -4.2   285   51   26   6.7   3.7   24.4  75.9    16.4      M    M
 18500  -18.9  -2.0   280   50   25   6.1   3.3   23.2  73.8    15.5      M    M
 18000  -17.9  -0.2   275   48   25   6.3   3.4   22.6  72.7    15.0      M    M
 17500  -17.0   1.4   275   46   24   6.3   3.5   22.0  71.6    14.6      M    M
 17000  -16.1   3.0   270   44   23   6.3   3.5   21.5  70.6    14.2      M    M
 16500  -15.2   4.6   270   42   22   6.3   3.5   20.9  69.6    13.7      M    M
 16000  -14.2   6.4   275   40   20   6.3   3.5   20.3  68.5    13.3      M    M
 15500  -13.3   8.1   275   38   20   6.1   3.3   19.7  67.4    12.8      M    M
 15000  -12.4   9.7   275   36   19   6.1   3.3   19.0  66.3    12.3      M    M
 14500  -11.5  11.3   280   35   18   6.1   3.3   18.4  65.2    11.8      M    M
 14000  -10.6  12.9   280   33   17   6.1   3.3   17.9  64.2    11.4      M    M
 13500   -9.7  14.5   280   32   16   6.1   3.3   17.2  63.0    10.9      M    M
 13000   -8.9  16.0   285   30   15   3.9   2.2   16.4  61.6    10.2      M    M
 12500   -8.3  17.1   285   30   15   4.1   2.2   15.5  60.0     9.4      M    M
 12000   -7.8  18.0   265   25   13   3.5   1.9   14.6  58.3     8.5      M    M
 11500   -7.4  18.7   255   22   12   3.2   1.8   13.4  56.2     7.5      M    M
 11000   -7.4  18.7   245   21   11  -7.2  -3.9   11.7  53.0     6.0      M    M
 10500   -8.5  16.7   235   19   10  -5.0  -2.8    8.9  48.0     3.6      M    M
 10250   -8.7  16.3   230   19   10  -2.8  -1.5    7.9  46.2     2.6      M    M
 10000   -8.9  16.0   225   19   10   0.8   0.4    6.9  44.5     1.7      M    M
  9750   -8.6  16.5   220   16    8   5.3   2.9    6.5  43.7     1.3      M    M
  9500   -8.2  17.2   215   14    7   4.7   2.6    6.1  43.0     0.9      M    M
  9250   -7.9  17.8   210   11    6   4.9   2.7    5.7  42.3     0.5      M    M
  9000   -7.5  18.5   215    8    4   4.8   2.7    5.3  41.6     0.2      M    M
  8750   -7.2  19.0   205    8    4   4.9   2.7    4.9  40.9    -0.2    261  1.3
  8500   -6.8  19.8   185   10    5   4.8   2.7    4.6  40.2    -0.6    243  1.2
  8250   -6.4  20.5   170   13    7   4.9   2.7    4.2  39.5    -0.9    224  1.1
  8000   -6.1  21.0   160   16    8   4.8   2.6    3.8  38.8    -1.3    206  1.0
  7750   -5.7  21.7   160   17    9   5.0   2.7    3.4  38.1    -1.7    188  1.0
  7500   -5.4  22.3   155   18    9   4.3   2.4    3.0  37.4    -2.1    170  0.9
  7250   -5.3  22.5   155   19   10  -5.8  -3.2    2.3  36.2    -2.8    161  0.8
  7000   -6.0  21.2   150   20   10  -7.1  -3.9    0.8  33.5    -4.2    174  0.9
  6750   -6.1  21.0   150   20   10   3.8   2.1    0.0  32.1    -5.0    169  0.9
  6500   -5.7  21.7   145   20   10   6.0   3.3   -0.3  31.5    -5.4    149  0.8
  6250   -5.2  22.6   135   20   10   5.4   3.0   -0.6  30.9    -5.7    130  0.7
  6000   -4.8  23.4   130   21   11   5.6   3.1   -0.9  30.3    -6.0    110  0.6
  5750   -4.4  24.1   130   21   11   5.2   2.9   -1.2  29.8    -6.4     90  0.5
  5500   -4.0  24.8   125   20   10   6.4   3.5   -1.6  29.2    -6.7     71  0.4
  5250   -3.6  25.5   120   20   10   4.5   2.5   -1.8  28.7    -7.0     50  0.3
  5000   -3.8  25.2   115   21   11 -13.4  -7.3   -2.8  27.0    -8.0     49  0.2

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           11/30/2022 at 0800 MST          |       11/30/2022 at 1100 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +7.5        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +8.4
CINH...    -0.3    K Index... -6.0`        | CINH...    -0.0    K Index... -11.4`
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -62.6 -80.7  270  53 27   1.9   1.0 | -63.6 -82.5  260  53 27   2.2   1.2
 45000 -59.7 -75.5  265  66 34   2.1   1.2 | -60.3 -76.5  260  61 32   2.5   1.4
 40000 -63.4 -82.1  260  80 41  -2.8  -1.5 | -63.6 -82.5  255  68 35  -2.5  -1.4
 38000 -62.3 -80.1  260  83 43   7.4   4.0 | -62.3 -80.1  255  69 36   7.0   3.9
 36000 -57.8 -72.0  265  81 42   7.4   4.0 | -58.1 -72.6  255  69 36   7.0   3.9
 34000 -53.4 -64.1  265  79 41   7.4   4.1 | -53.8 -64.8  255  68 35   7.7   4.2
 32000 -49.0 -56.2  265  75 38   7.4   4.1 | -49.2 -56.6  255  66 34   7.7   4.2
 30000 -44.4 -47.9  265  71 37   8.8   4.8 | -44.5 -48.1  255  64 33   8.5   4.6
 29000 -41.8 -43.2  265  72 37   8.8   4.8 | -41.9 -43.4  255  63 33   8.5   4.7
 28000 -39.1 -38.4  265  72 37   8.8   4.8 | -39.4 -38.9  255  62 32   8.5   4.7
 27000 -36.5 -33.7  270  72 37   8.6   4.7 | -36.8 -34.2  255  61 32   8.6   4.7
 26000 -34.1 -29.4  270  70 36   7.7   4.2 | -34.2 -29.6  255  61 31   8.7   4.8
 25000 -31.8 -25.2  270  68 35   7.7   4.2 | -31.6 -24.9  255  60 31   8.7   4.8
 24000 -29.5 -21.1  270  66 34   7.9   4.3 | -28.3 -18.9  255  60 31   7.7   4.2
 23000 -27.1 -16.8  270  61 31   6.3   3.4 | -26.2 -15.2  255  56 29   7.0   3.8
 22000 -25.2 -13.4  270  56 29   6.3   3.4 | -24.1 -11.4  255  53 27   7.0   3.9
 21000 -23.3  -9.9  270  51 26   6.8   3.7 | -22.1  -7.8  250  49 25   5.9   3.2
 20000 -21.3  -6.3  270  47 24   6.9   3.8 | -20.4  -4.7  250  45 23   5.9   3.2
 19500 -20.3  -4.5  270  45 23   6.9   3.8 | -19.5  -3.1  250  43 22   5.9   3.2
 19000 -19.2  -2.6  270  43 22   6.9   3.8 | -18.6  -1.5  250  41 21   5.9   3.2
 18500 -18.2  -0.8  270  41 21   6.9   3.8 | -17.7   0.1  250  39 20   6.3   3.4
 18000 -17.2   1.0  270  39 20   6.8   3.8 | -16.7   1.9  250  38 19   6.4   3.5
 17500 -16.2   2.8  270  38 19   6.8   3.7 | -15.8   3.6  250  36 19   6.4   3.5
 17000 -15.2   4.6  265  36 19   6.7   3.7 | -14.8   5.4  245  34 18   6.4   3.5
 16500 -14.2   6.4  265  35 18   6.7   3.7 | -13.9   7.0  245  33 17   6.4   3.5
 16000 -13.2   8.2  265  34 17   6.7   3.7 | -12.9   8.8  245  31 16   6.9   3.8
 15500 -12.2  10.0  265  32 17   6.7   3.7 | -11.9  10.6  245  30 16   6.9   3.8
 15000 -11.2  11.8  265  31 16   6.5   3.6 | -10.8  12.6  245  29 15   6.7   3.7
 14500 -10.3  13.5  260  29 15   6.4   3.5 |  -9.8  14.4  240  29 15   6.7   3.7
 14000  -9.3  15.3  260  28 14   6.2   3.4 |  -8.9  16.0  240  28 14   6.3   3.5
 13500  -8.4  16.9  260  27 14   5.8   3.2 |  -8.0  17.6  235  27 14   5.8   3.2
 13000  -7.6  18.3  255  25 13   5.5   3.0 |  -7.1  19.2  230  27 14   5.4   3.0
 12500  -6.9  19.6  250  23 12   4.4   2.4 |  -6.4  20.5  230  26 14   4.2   2.3
 12000  -6.2  20.8  250  22 11   4.1   2.2 |  -5.8  21.6  225  26 13   3.8   2.1
 11500  -5.8  21.6  245  20 10   1.8   1.0 |  -5.4  22.3  220  25 13   2.0   1.1
 11000  -5.5  22.1  235  18  9   1.5   0.8 |  -5.1  22.8  220  24 12   1.7   0.9
 10500  -5.5  22.1  230  16  8  -0.5  -0.3 |  -5.0  23.0  215  22 11   0.5   0.3
 10250  -5.5  22.1  225  15  8  -0.5  -0.3 |  -5.0  23.0  215  21 11   0.5   0.3
 10000  -5.5  22.1  220  15  8  -0.1  -0.0 |  -4.9  23.2  210  20 10   0.8   0.5
  9750  -5.5  22.1  220  14  7  -0.2  -0.1 |  -4.8  23.4  210  19 10   1.3   0.7
  9500  -5.5  22.1  210  13  7  -0.7  -0.4 |  -4.7  23.5  210  18  9   1.3   0.7
  9250  -5.6  21.9  205  13  6  -0.7  -0.4 |  -4.6  23.7  205  17  9   1.2   0.6
  9000  -5.6  21.9  195  12  6   0.1   0.1 |  -4.5  23.9  205  16  8   2.9   1.6
  8750  -5.5  22.1  190  11  6   1.4   0.8 |  -4.2  24.4  205  15  8   2.8   1.5
  8500  -5.4  22.3  185  11  6   1.4   0.8 |  -4.0  24.8  200  14  7   1.9   1.1
  8250  -5.2  22.6  180  11  6   2.7   1.5 |  -3.8  25.2  200  13  7   2.9   1.6
  8000  -5.0  23.0  170  12  6   1.6   0.9 |  -3.6  25.5  195  12  6   2.3   1.3
  7750  -4.9  23.2  170  11  6  -0.3  -0.2 |  -3.5  25.7  190  11  5   1.3   0.7
  7500  -4.9  23.2  165  11  5   1.4   0.8 |  -3.4  25.9  185   9  5   1.5   0.8
  7250  -4.7  23.5  160  11  6   3.3   1.8 |  -3.3  26.1  180   8  4   0.1   0.0
  7000  -4.5  23.9  155  12  6   1.3   0.7 |  -3.2  26.2  175   7  4   4.2   2.3
  6750  -4.5  23.9  150  10  5  -0.3  -0.2 |  -2.7  27.1  170   6  3   7.9   4.3
  6500  -4.5  23.9  145   9  4  -0.2  -0.1 |  -2.2  28.0  165   5  3   6.6   3.6
  6250  -4.5  23.9  145   8  4   0.7   0.4 |  -1.7  28.9  160   4  2   5.6   3.1
  6000  -4.5  23.9  140   8  4  -2.6  -1.5 |  -1.3  29.7  150   3  2   9.8   5.4
  5750  -5.2  22.6  115   5  2 -15.5  -8.5 |  -0.2  31.6  155   3  2  19.5  10.7
  5500  -6.8  19.8  090   4  2 -23.7 -13.0 |   0.9  33.6  145   2  1  -1.9  -1.0
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           11/30/2022 at 1400 MST          |       11/30/2022 at 1700 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +7.9        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +7.6
CINH...     0.0    K Index... -10.8`        | CINH...    -0.0    K Index... -3.2`
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -63.5 -82.3  260  51 26   1.7   0.9 | -62.8 -81.0  255  52 27   2.2   1.2
 45000 -61.0 -77.8  255  61 32   1.9   1.1 | -59.6 -75.3  255  61 31   2.4   1.3
 40000 -62.9 -81.2  250  60 31  -1.5  -0.8 | -61.7 -79.1  245  55 28  -1.7  -1.0
 38000 -61.6 -78.9  245  59 31   6.0   3.3 | -61.0 -77.8  245  53 27   5.1   2.8
 36000 -58.0 -72.4  245  59 30   6.0   3.3 | -58.0 -72.4  240  51 26   5.1   2.8
 34000 -54.2 -65.6  245  58 30   8.4   4.6 | -54.7 -66.5  240  50 26   8.9   4.9
 32000 -49.3 -56.7  240  57 30   8.2   4.5 | -49.6 -57.3  240  50 26   8.5   4.7
 30000 -44.4 -47.9  240  56 29   8.1   4.4 | -44.5 -48.1  240  50 26   8.2   4.5
 29000 -41.9 -43.4  240  55 28   8.1   4.5 | -42.0 -43.6  240  50 26   8.3   4.5
 28000 -39.5 -39.1  240  54 28   8.1   4.5 | -39.6 -39.3  240  49 25   8.3   4.5
 27000 -37.1 -34.8  240  53 27   8.3   4.5 | -37.1 -34.8  240  49 25   8.3   4.5
 26000 -34.5 -30.1  240  54 28   8.8   4.8 | -34.6 -30.3  240  49 25   8.3   4.5
 25000 -31.8 -25.2  240  54 28   8.8   4.8 | -32.1 -25.8  240  49 25   8.3   4.5
 24000 -29.2 -20.6  240  55 28   8.8   4.8 | -29.0 -20.2  240  48 25   8.2   4.5
 23000 -26.0 -14.8  245  54 28   8.5   4.7 | -26.6 -15.9  240  48 25   8.1   4.4
 22000 -23.4 -10.1  245  54 28   8.5   4.7 | -24.2 -11.6  235  48 25   8.1   4.4
 21000 -21.0  -5.8  245  53 27   5.4   2.9 | -21.8  -7.2  235  48 25   6.5   3.6
 20000 -19.6  -3.3  240  49 25   5.0   2.7 | -20.0  -4.0  235  47 24   6.0   3.3
 19500 -18.8  -1.8  240  47 24   5.0   2.7 | -19.1  -2.4  235  47 24   6.0   3.3
 19000 -18.1  -0.6  240  44 23   5.0   2.8 | -18.2  -0.8  235  46 24   6.0   3.3
 18500 -17.3   0.9  235  43 22   5.1   2.8 | -17.3   0.9  235  46 23   5.5   3.0
 18000 -16.6   2.1  235  42 21   5.1   2.8 | -16.6   2.1  235  45 23   5.0   2.8
 17500 -15.8   3.6  235  41 21   5.2   2.9 | -15.9   3.4  235  44 23   5.0   2.7
 17000 -14.9   5.2  230  40 21   6.7   3.7 | -15.1   4.8  235  43 22   5.4   2.9
 16500 -13.9   7.0  230  39 20   6.6   3.6 | -14.3   6.3  235  43 22   5.3   2.9
 16000 -12.9   8.8  230  39 20   6.9   3.8 | -13.5   7.7  235  42 21   6.0   3.3
 15500 -11.9  10.6  230  38 20   6.9   3.8 | -12.6   9.3  235  41 21   6.3   3.4
 15000 -10.8  12.6  230  37 19   6.9   3.8 | -11.6  11.1  235  40 21   6.3   3.5
 14500  -9.8  14.4  230  37 19   6.8   3.7 | -10.7  12.7  235  39 20   6.3   3.5
 14000  -8.8  16.2  230  36 18   6.6   3.6 |  -9.8  14.4  235  39 20   6.3   3.4
 13500  -7.9  17.8  225  35 18   6.1   3.4 |  -8.8  16.2  230  38 20   6.0   3.3
 13000  -7.0  19.4  225  34 18   6.0   3.3 |  -7.9  17.8  230  37 19   6.0   3.3
 12500  -6.2  20.8  225  33 17   4.7   2.6 |  -7.1  19.2  230  37 19   5.3   2.9
 12000  -5.5  22.1  220  32 16   4.7   2.6 |  -6.3  20.7  225  36 19   5.4   3.0
 11500  -4.9  23.2  220  31 16   3.5   1.9 |  -5.6  21.9  225  35 18   5.0   2.7
 11000  -4.4  24.1  215  29 15   3.5   1.9 |  -4.8  23.4  220  34 18   5.0   2.8
 10500  -4.0  24.8  215  28 14   2.3   1.3 |  -4.2  24.4  215  33 17   4.2   2.3
 10250  -3.8  25.2  215  27 14   2.4   1.3 |  -3.9  25.0  215  33 17   3.9   2.1
 10000  -3.6  25.5  210  26 13   2.6   1.4 |  -3.6  25.5  215  32 17   5.4   3.0
  9750  -3.5  25.7  210  24 12   2.4   1.3 |  -3.1  26.4  210  30 16   5.3   2.9
  9500  -3.3  26.1  210  23 12   2.0   1.1 |  -2.8  27.0  210  29 15   3.6   2.0
  9250  -3.2  26.2  205  21 11   2.1   1.2 |  -2.5  27.5  205  28 14   4.0   2.2
  9000  -3.0  26.6  205  20 10   2.1   1.2 |  -2.3  27.9  205  26 14   4.1   2.3
  8750  -2.9  26.8  200  18  9   2.4   1.3 |  -1.6  29.1  200  22 11   3.9   2.2
  8500  -2.5  27.5  195  14  7   2.5   1.4 |  -1.3  29.7  200  19 10   4.0   2.2
  8250  -2.3  27.9  190  13  6   1.9   1.1 |  -1.0  30.2  195  17  9   4.2   2.3
  8000  -2.2  28.0  185  11  6   3.3   1.8 |  -0.7  30.7  195  16  8   3.9   2.1
  7750  -1.8  28.8  185   9  5   4.7   2.6 |  -0.5  31.1  190  13  7   3.2   1.8
  7500  -1.5  29.3  180   7  4   4.4   2.4 |  -0.2  31.6  185  11  6   3.8   2.1
  7250  -1.2  29.8  175   6  3   3.0   1.6 |   0.1  32.2  180   9  5   5.1   2.8
  7000  -0.9  30.4  170   5  2   7.2   4.0 |   0.5  32.9  180   8  4   4.3   2.4
  6750  -0.1  31.8  175   4  2  10.9   6.0 |   0.8  33.4  175   6  3   3.2   1.7
  6500   0.6  33.1  180   3  1   7.8   4.3 |   1.0  33.8  175   4  2   4.1   2.3
  6250   1.1  34.0  180   2  1   6.0   3.3 |   1.4  34.5  180   3  1   3.6   2.0
  6000   1.6  34.9  190   1  1   9.6   5.3 |   1.7  35.1  210   1  1   6.6   3.6
  5750   2.6  36.7  185   2  1  17.4   9.5 |   2.1  35.8  000   0  0   0.1   0.1
  5500   3.6  38.5  230   1  0   2.7   1.5 |  -0.3  31.5  315   2  1 -85.4 -46.8
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.