Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 041307
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
607 AM MST Monday, March 4, 2024

This forecast is for Monday, March 4, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 34.5 F/1.4 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 423 ft/min (2.1 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11807 ft MSL (6968 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 47.0 F/8.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0945 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10909 ft MSL (6070 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 03/05...... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:41:01 / 18:10:17 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 29 min 16 sec (689 min 16 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:25:39 MST... 44.47 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/04/2024 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 9887 ft MSL (5048 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11804 ft MSL (6965 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +7.2
K index......................... +6.0

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -54.8 -66.6   250   74   38   3.3   1.8  112.8 235.1    59.1      M    M
 45000  -51.4 -60.5   265   76   39   2.8   1.6   93.6 200.6    51.6      M    M
 40000  -50.5 -58.9   255   77   40  -0.5  -0.3   71.6 160.8    40.8      M    M
 38000  -49.6 -57.3   255   98   50  -5.2  -2.8   62.9 145.2    36.3      M    M
 36000  -55.8 -68.4   255  102   52  -6.5  -3.6   45.1 113.2    25.1      M    M
 34000  -57.5 -71.5   255  100   51   3.3   1.8   34.1  93.4    18.1      M    M
 32000  -54.1 -65.4   255   95   49   9.3   5.1   30.7  87.2    16.1      M    M
 30000  -48.5 -55.3   255   95   49   9.6   5.3   30.3  86.5    16.3      M    M
 29000  -46.1 -51.0   260   94   48   6.2   3.4   29.6  85.2    15.9      M    M
 28000  -44.2 -47.6   260   93   48   6.1   3.4   28.2  82.8    15.1      M    M
 27000  -42.0 -43.6   265   94   48   7.8   4.3   27.3  81.1    14.6      M    M
 26000  -39.9 -39.8   260   93   48   5.7   3.2   26.2  79.2    13.9      M    M
 25000  -37.4 -35.3   265   92   47   8.4   4.6   25.7  78.2    13.7      M    M
 24000  -35.1 -31.2   260   86   44   6.1   3.3   24.8  76.6    13.1      M    M
 23000  -33.6 -28.5   255   84   43   5.5   3.0   23.1  73.6    11.9      M    M
 22000  -31.9 -25.4   260   85   44   5.0   2.8   21.5  70.8    10.8      M    M
 21000  -30.3 -22.5   265   80   41   4.0   2.2   19.9  67.9     9.6      M    M
 20000  -28.3 -18.9   260   70   36   5.5   3.0   18.0  64.4     8.1      M    M
 19500  -27.5 -17.5   255   64   33   5.5   3.0   17.2  63.0     7.4      M    M
 19000  -26.7 -16.1   255   58   30   5.5   3.0   16.4  61.6     6.8      M    M
 18500  -25.8 -14.4   250   52   27   5.3   2.9   15.7  60.3     6.2      M    M
 18000  -24.9 -12.8   245   49   25   8.3   4.5   15.2  59.3     5.8      M    M
 17500  -23.6 -10.5   245   48   25   8.5   4.7   14.9  58.9     5.6      M    M
 17000  -22.4  -8.3   245   50   26   8.0   4.4   14.7  58.5     5.4      M    M
 16500  -21.2  -6.2   240   51   26   8.0   4.4   14.4  57.9     5.2      M    M
 16000  -20.0  -4.0   245   54   28   8.0   4.4   14.1  57.4     4.9      M    M
 15500  -18.8  -1.8   240   52   27   8.0   4.4   13.8  56.9     4.7      M    M
 15000  -17.6   0.3   230   50   26   8.1   4.5   13.5  56.4     4.4      M    M
 14500  -16.6   2.1   225   47   24   6.4   3.5   13.1  55.6     4.0      M    M
 14000  -15.6   3.9   225   44   23   6.2   3.4   12.5  54.6     3.6      M    M
 13500  -14.7   5.5   230   41   21   6.3   3.4   12.0  53.5     3.0      M    M
 13000  -13.8   7.2   220   40   20   6.3   3.4   11.4  52.5     2.5      M    M
 12500  -12.8   9.0   220   36   18   5.9   3.2   10.8  51.5     2.0      M    M
 12000  -12.9   8.8   225   29   15  -1.8  -1.0    9.1  48.5     0.5      M    M
 11500  -12.9   8.8   230   20   10  -5.1  -2.8    7.5  45.6    -1.0    417  2.1
 11000  -13.3   8.1   275    9    5   3.7   2.0    5.5  42.0    -2.9    413  2.1
 10500  -12.5   9.5   300   13    7   5.4   3.0    4.8  40.7    -3.6    374  1.9
 10250  -12.1  10.2   305   16    8   5.4   2.9    4.5  40.1    -3.9    355  1.8
 10000  -11.7  10.9   310   18    9   5.9   3.2    4.2  39.5    -4.2    335  1.7
  9750  -11.3  11.7   315   21   11   3.3   1.8    3.8  38.9    -4.6    316  1.6
  9500  -11.2  11.8   325   22   11   0.8   0.4    3.1  37.7    -5.2    306  1.6
  9250  -11.1  12.0   335   23   12   1.1   0.6    2.5  36.4    -5.9    295  1.5
  9000  -10.9  12.4   350   18    9   4.8   2.6    1.9  35.4    -6.5    283  1.4
  8750  -10.4  13.3   360   15    8   7.8   4.3    1.7  35.0    -6.7    260  1.3
  8500   -9.9  14.2   360   13    7   7.0   3.8    1.5  34.7    -6.9    237  1.2
  8250   -9.4  15.1   010   11    6   7.2   4.0    1.3  34.3    -7.1    213  1.1
  8000   -8.8  16.2   025    9    5   7.2   3.9    1.1  33.9    -7.3    190  1.0
  7750   -8.3  17.1   030   10    5   7.2   4.0    0.9  33.6    -7.6    167  0.8
  7500   -7.8  18.0   020   10    5   7.1   3.9    0.7  33.2    -7.8    144  0.7
  7250   -7.2  19.0   030    8    4   7.0   3.8    0.5  32.8    -8.0    121  0.6
  7000   -6.7  19.9   045    7    4   6.9   3.8    0.3  32.5    -8.3     98  0.5
  6750   -6.2  20.8   045    6    3   6.9   3.8    0.0  32.1    -8.5     75  0.4
  6500   -5.7  21.7   015    3    2   6.9   3.8   -0.2  31.7    -8.8     53  0.3
  6250   -5.2  22.6   305    2    1   6.9   3.8   -0.4  31.3    -9.0     30  0.2
  6000   -4.7  23.5   255    4    2   7.0   3.9   -0.6  30.9    -9.3      8  0.0
  5750   -4.3  24.3   260    5    3   4.6   2.5   -0.9  30.4    -9.6      M    M
  5500   -4.0  24.8   265    9    4   2.4   1.3   -1.4  29.5   -10.1      M    M
  5250   -3.8  25.2   275    6    3   4.0   2.2   -1.9  28.6   -10.6      M    M
  5000   -3.4  25.9   280    4    2   8.3   4.5   -2.2  28.1   -11.0      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/04/2024 at 0800 MST          |       03/04/2024 at 1100 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +4.3        | CAPE...   +20.3    LI...       +4.5
CINH...    -0.2    K Index...  +9.7        | CINH...    -9.1    K Index...  +6.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.9 -66.8  260  62 32   2.3   1.2 | -55.3 -67.5  255  65 34   2.7   1.5
 45000 -51.4 -60.5  260  70 36   2.3   1.2 | -51.2 -60.2  255  70 36   2.7   1.5
 40000 -49.8 -57.6  260  80 41   0.8   0.5 | -50.9 -59.6  265  80 41  -0.2  -0.1
 38000 -50.0 -58.0  265  84 43  -7.1  -3.9 | -51.5 -60.7  265  85 44  -5.1  -2.8
 36000 -53.8 -64.8  260  86 44  -6.4  -3.5 | -54.3 -65.7  265  83 43  -4.7  -2.6
 34000 -57.6 -71.7  255  89 46  -6.7  -3.7 | -57.1 -70.8  260  82 42  -5.3  -2.9
 32000 -54.5 -66.1  255  88 45   8.3   4.5 | -54.4 -65.9  260  82 42   6.7   3.7
 30000 -49.5 -57.1  255  87 45   8.3   4.5 | -50.4 -58.7  265  83 43   6.5   3.6
 29000 -47.1 -52.8  260  87 45   7.9   4.3 | -48.1 -54.6  265  83 43   8.0   4.4
 28000 -44.7 -48.5  260  87 45   7.9   4.3 | -45.7 -50.3  265  82 42   7.9   4.4
 27000 -42.4 -44.3  265  87 45   7.9   4.3 | -43.3 -45.9  265  82 42   7.9   4.4
 26000 -40.1 -40.2  265  88 45   7.2   3.9 | -40.9 -41.6  265  81 42   8.2   4.5
 25000 -37.9 -36.2  265  87 45   7.3   4.0 | -38.5 -37.3  265  81 42   8.2   4.5
 24000 -35.2 -31.4  265  85 44   7.3   4.0 | -35.4 -31.7  265  80 41   8.2   4.5
 23000 -32.9 -27.2  265  84 43   7.8   4.3 | -33.0 -27.4  265  80 41   8.1   4.4
 22000 -30.6 -23.1  265  84 43   7.8   4.3 | -30.5 -22.9  265  79 41   8.1   4.4
 21000 -28.2 -18.8  265  83 43   7.9   4.4 | -28.1 -18.6  265  79 41   8.2   4.5
 20000 -26.4 -15.5  265  79 41   5.4   3.0 | -25.9 -14.6  265  77 40   7.0   3.8
 19500 -25.6 -14.1  265  77 39   5.4   3.0 | -24.9 -12.8  265  76 39   7.0   3.8
 19000 -24.8 -12.6  265  74 38   5.4   3.0 | -23.8 -10.8  265  74 38   7.0   3.9
 18500 -24.0 -11.2  265  72 37   5.5   3.0 | -22.8  -9.0  265  73 38   7.2   3.9
 18000 -23.2  -9.8  265  69 35   3.7   2.0 | -21.9  -7.4  265  71 37   4.4   2.4
 17500 -22.8  -9.0  260  64 33   3.2   1.7 | -21.3  -6.3  265  68 35   4.1   2.2
 17000 -22.3  -8.1  260  59 30   3.6   2.0 | -20.7  -5.3  265  65 34   3.9   2.2
 16500 -21.7  -7.1  260  56 29   4.9   2.7 | -20.1  -4.2  260  61 31   3.7   2.0
 16000 -21.0  -5.8  255  53 27   4.7   2.6 | -19.6  -3.3  260  57 29   3.7   2.0
 15500 -20.1  -4.2  255  50 26   7.3   4.0 | -18.9  -2.0  255  54 28   5.7   3.1
 15000 -19.0  -2.2  250  49 25   7.0   3.8 | -18.1  -0.6  250  51 26   5.6   3.1
 14500 -17.9  -0.2  250  48 25   8.0   4.4 | -17.3   0.9  250  48 25   5.5   3.0
 14000 -16.8   1.8  250  47 24   8.1   4.4 | -16.5   2.3  245  45 23   5.5   3.0
 13500 -15.6   3.9  250  46 24   7.3   4.0 | -15.6   3.9  245  43 22   6.6   3.6
 13000 -14.6   5.7  245  44 23   7.1   3.9 | -14.6   5.7  245  40 21   6.9   3.8
 12500 -13.5   7.7  245  42 22   6.6   3.6 | -13.6   7.5  240  38 20   6.9   3.8
 12000 -12.6   9.3  245  40 20   6.4   3.5 | -12.6   9.3  240  37 19   6.8   3.7
 11500 -11.7  10.9  240  37 19   6.7   3.7 | -11.6  11.1  240  35 18   8.0   4.4
 11000 -10.7  12.7  235  34 18   6.9   3.8 | -10.4  13.3  235  34 17   8.4   4.6
 10500  -9.8  14.4  235  31 16   5.5   3.0 |  -9.2  15.4  235  32 17   7.3   4.0
 10250  -9.4  15.1  230  30 16   4.6   2.5 |  -8.7  16.3  235  32 16   6.4   3.5
 10000  -9.0  15.8  230  29 15   6.2   3.4 |  -8.2  17.2  230  31 16   8.8   4.8
  9750  -8.5  16.7  225  26 14   6.5   3.6 |  -7.5  18.5  230  30 15   9.4   5.2
  9500  -8.1  17.4  225  24 12   4.4   2.4 |  -6.9  19.6  230  29 15   7.0   3.8
  9250  -7.9  17.8  220  22 11   3.5   1.9 |  -6.4  20.5  230  27 14   6.7   3.7
  9000  -7.6  18.3  220  20 10   4.9   2.7 |  -5.9  21.4  230  26 13   7.8   4.3
  8750  -7.2  19.0  210  18  9   4.4   2.4 |  -5.3  22.5  225  25 13   7.5   4.1
  8500  -6.7  19.9  205  13  7   3.4   1.8 |  -4.3  24.3  225  21 11   6.8   3.7
  8250  -6.5  20.3  195  11  6   3.0   1.6 |  -3.9  25.0  225  19 10   5.7   3.1
  8000  -6.2  20.8  185   9  5   3.5   1.9 |  -3.5  25.7  225  17  9   5.3   2.9
  7750  -5.9  21.4  175   7  4   4.1   2.3 |  -3.1  26.4  225  15  8   6.0   3.3
  7500  -5.6  21.9  165   6  3   4.2   2.3 |  -2.6  27.3  220  13  6   6.0   3.3
  7250  -5.3  22.5  145   5  3   3.3   1.8 |  -2.2  28.0  220  11  5   5.5   3.0
  7000  -5.1  22.8  135   6  3   4.2   2.3 |  -1.8  28.8  220   8  4   7.1   3.9
  6750  -4.7  23.5  125   5  3   6.0   3.3 |  -1.2  29.8  220   7  4   8.7   4.8
  6500  -4.3  24.3  110   5  2   5.6   3.1 |  -0.5  31.1  225   6  3   8.7   4.8
  6250  -3.9  25.0  095   5  2   4.8   2.6 |   0.2  32.4  225   5  3  10.0   5.5
  6000  -3.5  25.7  085   5  3   6.4   3.5 |   0.9  33.6  220   4  2   8.6   4.7
  5750  -2.9  26.8  090   4  2  10.2   5.6 |   1.5  34.7  225   4  2   9.9   5.4
  5500  -2.3  27.9  085   3  1   1.3   0.7 |   3.0  37.4  230   3  1  40.0  21.9
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/04/2024 at 1400 MST          |       03/04/2024 at 1700 MST
                                           |
CAPE...   +39.5    LI...       +4.3        | CAPE...   +18.1    LI...       +3.2
CINH...    -4.2    K Index...  +5.3        | CINH...    -7.8    K Index...  +9.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.2 -67.4  260  69 36   3.1   1.7 | -55.3 -67.5  265  68 35   2.8   1.5
 45000 -50.6 -59.1  260  72 37   3.0   1.7 | -51.1 -60.0  265  72 37   2.7   1.5
 40000 -53.5 -64.3  265  80 41  -2.5  -1.4 | -54.5 -66.1  270  74 38  -3.0  -1.7
 38000 -54.9 -66.8  265  83 43  -2.3  -1.3 | -56.3 -69.3  275  75 39  -0.7  -0.4
 36000 -56.3 -69.3  265  81 42  -2.3  -1.3 | -56.8 -70.2  275  76 39  -0.8  -0.5
 34000 -57.7 -71.9  265  80 41  -3.0  -1.7 | -57.3 -71.1  275  76 39  -1.6  -0.9
 32000 -54.5 -66.1  265  78 40   6.8   3.7 | -54.1 -65.4  275  74 38   6.4   3.5
 30000 -50.4 -58.7  270  77 40   6.9   3.8 | -50.2 -58.4  275  72 37   6.5   3.6
 29000 -48.1 -54.6  270  76 39   7.9   4.4 | -48.0 -54.4  275  71 37   7.9   4.3
 28000 -45.8 -50.4  270  75 39   7.9   4.4 | -45.6 -50.1  270  69 36   7.9   4.3
 27000 -43.4 -46.1  265  75 38   7.9   4.4 | -43.2 -45.8  270  68 35   7.9   4.3
 26000 -41.0 -41.8  265  74 38   8.4   4.6 | -40.8 -41.4  270  67 34   8.0   4.4
 25000 -38.4 -37.1  265  73 38   8.4   4.6 | -38.4 -37.1  270  67 34   8.0   4.4
 24000 -35.3 -31.5  265  72 37   8.4   4.6 | -35.5 -31.9  270  67 35   8.0   4.4
 23000 -32.8 -27.0  265  72 37   8.3   4.6 | -33.0 -27.4  270  67 34   8.2   4.5
 22000 -30.3 -22.5  265  72 37   8.3   4.6 | -30.6 -23.1  270  66 34   8.2   4.5
 21000 -27.8 -18.0  265  71 37   8.4   4.6 | -28.1 -18.6  270  65 34   8.3   4.5
 20000 -25.5 -13.9  265  70 36   7.4   4.1 | -25.8 -14.4  270  64 33   7.3   4.0
 19500 -24.4 -11.9  265  69 36   7.4   4.1 | -24.7 -12.5  270  63 32   7.3   4.0
 19000 -23.3  -9.9  265  69 35   7.5   4.1 | -23.6 -10.5  270  62 32   7.3   4.0
 18500 -22.1  -7.8  265  68 35   7.6   4.2 | -22.5  -8.5  270  61 31   7.5   4.1
 18000 -21.1  -6.0  265  67 34   5.8   3.2 | -21.5  -6.7  270  59 31   5.9   3.2
 17500 -20.3  -4.5  265  64 33   5.7   3.1 | -20.6  -5.1  265  57 30   6.0   3.3
 17000 -19.4  -2.9  265  62 32   4.8   2.6 | -19.8  -3.6  265  55 29   5.2   2.9
 16500 -18.8  -1.8  265  59 30   3.9   2.1 | -19.1  -2.4  265  53 27   4.7   2.6
 16000 -18.3  -0.9  265  55 28   3.8   2.1 | -18.4  -1.1  260  51 26   4.8   2.6
 15500 -17.8  -0.0  260  52 27   3.2   1.8 | -17.6   0.3  260  49 25   5.1   2.8
 15000 -17.3   0.9  255  48 25   3.0   1.7 | -16.9   1.6  255  47 24   5.1   2.8
 14500 -16.7   1.9  255  45 23   5.9   3.2 | -16.1   3.0  250  44 23   5.8   3.2
 14000 -15.8   3.6  250  42 22   5.6   3.1 | -15.3   4.5  250  42 22   5.6   3.1
 13500 -15.0   5.0  245  40 21   6.5   3.5 | -14.4   6.1  245  40 20   7.3   4.0
 13000 -14.0   6.8  245  38 20   6.5   3.5 | -13.3   8.1  245  37 19   7.3   4.0
 12500 -13.0   8.6  240  37 19   7.6   4.2 | -12.2  10.0  240  34 18   7.9   4.3
 12000 -11.9  10.6  240  35 18   7.8   4.3 | -11.1  12.0  240  31 16   8.0   4.4
 11500 -10.7  12.7  240  33 17   8.1   4.4 |  -9.9  14.2  240  29 15   8.4   4.6
 11000  -9.5  14.9  240  31 16   8.2   4.5 |  -8.6  16.5  245  27 14   8.6   4.7
 10500  -8.4  16.9  240  30 15   7.4   4.1 |  -7.4  18.7  245  25 13   7.6   4.2
 10250  -7.9  17.8  240  29 15   6.5   3.6 |  -6.9  19.6  245  24 12   6.7   3.7
 10000  -7.3  18.9  240  29 15   9.5   5.2 |  -6.3  20.7  245  23 12  10.1   5.5
  9750  -6.5  20.3  240  27 14  10.1   5.5 |  -5.5  22.1  250  22 11  10.4   5.7
  9500  -6.0  21.2  245  26 14   7.5   4.1 |  -4.9  23.2  250  21 11   7.2   4.0
  9250  -5.4  22.3  245  25 13   7.6   4.2 |  -4.3  24.3  250  20 10   7.9   4.3
  9000  -4.8  23.4  245  24 13   8.7   4.8 |  -3.7  25.3  255  20 10   8.2   4.5
  8750  -4.2  24.4  245  23 12   8.4   4.6 |  -3.1  26.4  255  18  9   8.4   4.6
  8500  -3.1  26.4  250  21 11   7.5   4.1 |  -1.9  28.6  260  16  8   8.2   4.5
  8250  -2.6  27.3  250  19 10   6.9   3.8 |  -1.3  29.7  260  15  8   7.9   4.3
  8000  -2.1  28.2  255  19 10   6.9   3.8 |  -0.7  30.7  265  15  8   8.1   4.4
  7750  -1.5  29.3  255  17  9   7.3   4.0 |  -0.1  31.8  265  14  7   8.4   4.6
  7500  -1.0  30.2  260  15  8   7.4   4.1 |   0.5  32.9  270  12  6   8.4   4.6
  7250  -0.5  31.1  265  14  7   5.8   3.2 |   1.1  34.0  270  11  6   7.2   3.9
  7000  -0.1  31.8  270  14  7   8.0   4.4 |   1.6  34.9  275  12  6   8.1   4.4
  6750   0.7  33.3  270  13  6  11.1   6.1 |   2.3  36.1  275  10  5   9.6   5.3
  6500   1.5  34.7  275  12  6  10.1   5.5 |   3.0  37.4  280   9  5   9.5   5.2
  6250   2.2  36.0  275  11  6  10.7   5.9 |   3.8  38.8  285   9  5  10.7   5.9
  6000   3.0  37.4  280  11  6   8.7   4.8 |   4.5  40.1  285  10  5   8.8   4.8
  5750   3.6  38.5  280  10  5  11.2   6.1 |   5.1  41.2  285   8  4   7.0   3.8
  5500   5.6  42.1  285   9  5  54.3  29.8 |   6.1  43.0  290   7  3  27.8  15.3
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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