486
FXUS01 KWBC 152001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Valid 00Z Thu May 16 2024 - 00Z Sat May 18 2024

...Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S
today...

...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas
this week ...

...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East
Texas into the Gulf States tomorrow and Friday...

Several focused areas of stormy and unsettled weather can be
expected today across the central and eastern parts of the Lower
48 as a series of frontal systems gradually migrate eastward.
Along the Eastern Seaboard, coastal low pressure located over the
southern DelMarVa will maintain locally heavy rainfall chances
over Eastern Long Island and Coastal New England through tomorrow
morning, with 2-3" of rain and isolated flash flooding possible as
the storm wraps up offshore. Much of this activity in the
Northeast will remain steady stratiform rainfall, with the bulk of
robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of the Mid-Atlantic
and Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread
across the Plains states this afternoon as a very warm and moist
Gulf of Mexico airmass is drawn northward ahead of a weak cold
front. Severe weather is the big story there, as the Storm
Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle and Southern Kansas.

The same Gulf airmass will set the stage for a bout of unusually
early hot weather in South Florida and Texas, with heat indices
exceeding 100 degrees possible. Owing to the combination of
oppressive heat indices and forecast record warm overnight
temperatures in these areas, major heat-related impacts are
possible with this round of hot weather through the work week
according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance.

The forecast remains on track for widespread heavy rainfall across
portions of East Texas and West Mississippi tomorrow as repeat
thunderstorm complexes track across the region, where a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) is in effect. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall is forecast for the Moderate Risk area, and locally
higher amounts will be possible, which suggests numerous instances
of flash flooding are likely as the region is very sensitive to
any additional rainfall. The threat is expected to roll into
Friday with another Moderate Risk depicted over southern
Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued
thunderstorm development.

Asherman

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$