Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 171949

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 00Z Sat May 18 2024 - 00Z Mon May 20 2024

...Unsettled weather with chances for excessive rainfall and
severe thunderstorms continues across the Southeast through

...Active weather and thunderstorm chances also exist across the
northern Plains tonight before returning to the central Plains on

...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and builds into
the southern High Plains this weekend...

A continued risk of thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain are
impacting parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast this afternoon
after a very wet and stormy 24 hours for the region. Additional
instances of heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are possible from
the central Gulf Coast to southern Georgia tonight, highlighted by
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms as well as a
Moderate  Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall. A frontal
boundary lingering from the Southeast to the north-central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday will lead to newly developing thunderstorms
with the potential for more chances of flash flooding and damaging
wind gusts. Areas of heavy rain and wet weather are also forecast
to continue into Saturday across the Mid-Atlantic and central
Appalachians, where scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible. By the end of the weekend outdoor activities should
become more desirable as shower and thunderstorms chances diminish
for most locations in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic due to
frontal boundaries shifting offshore.

Other notable areas of precipitation include the northern Plains
tonight and central Plains on Sunday. An initial low pressure
system churning over south-central Canada this evening with an
attached cold front progressing across the northern Plains will
allow for developing quick-moving showers and thunderstorms. By
Sunday, the upper-level pattern reloads with troughing digging
into the northern Great Basin and strong southerly flow throughout
the Plains. This will allow for thunderstorms to form over the
central High Plains and spread east during the evening hours. The
Storm Prediction Center highlights the greatest chances for severe
weather across parts of Nebraska and Kansas, with a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms issued.

Otherwise, dangerous heat remains across parts of South Florida
this weekend, while anomalous heat builds into much of the Plains
and Midwest as well. High temperatures in South Florida are
forecast to reach the mid-90s, with high humidity leading to heat
indices into the triple digits. Above average temperatures this
weekend will also stretch from the southern Plains to the Midwest
and Great Lakes. Highs are anticipated to range from 10 degrees
above average to near 20 degrees above average for the upper Great
Lakes on Saturday. Afternoon max temperatures should reach the 80s
and low 90s for these regions, with triple digits along the Rio
Grande Valley and southern High Plains.


Graphics available at