Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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ILC023-033-047-059-101-185-193-INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-
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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
321 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA...

.Discussion...

The early spring flood potential outlook covering the months of
March, April, and May for the White and Wabash River basins in
central and southern Indiana is above normal. This above normal
flood potential outlook means that above normal rainfall combined
with abnormally saturated soil conditions could lead to extensive
flooding across central and southern Indiana this spring.

Widespread minor flooding is expected over central Indiana late this
winter into the spring with significant flooding possible across the
lower White and Wabash basins.  The risk for flooding is
approximately two times the normal risk.

As of February 13th, stream levels in central and southern Indiana
were generally above normal to much above normal with minor flooding
ongoing along the Wabash, White, and East Fork White basins.

So far this winter, precipitation has been above normal but not as
high as last winter.  Temperatures have been above normal with below
normal snowfall. Soil moisture is very high for this time of the
year and is higher than this time last year.

The 6 to 10 day outlook shows above normal precipitation for central
Indiana. The 8 to 14 day outlook shows near normal to below average
precipitation.  The 3 to 4 week outlook and the 1 to 3 month outlook
show above average precipitation.

Anyone with interests in flood prone areas should remain alert to
changing weather conditions.  Flood conditions can develop quickly
during the late winter and early spring.

Additional statements will be issued as changing weather and river
conditions warrant.



In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville         13.0   15.0   18.0 :  39   28   21   11   <5   <5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2 SW      11.0   14.0   17.0 :  74   67   29   19   <5   <5
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville           9.0   11.0   15.0 :  22   23   12    9   <5   <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus             9.0   14.0   16.0 :  46   34   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rivervale           20.0   30.0   35.0 :  91   79   13   12   <5   <5
Bedford             20.0   27.0   32.0 :  71   61   16   17   <5   <5
Seymour             12.0   17.0   19.0 :  95  >95   35   26   <5   <5
Shoals              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  43   38   20   17   <5    6
Williams             8.0   14.0   20.0 :  75   66   18   18   <5   <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green       15.0   20.0   23.0 :  65   63   21   27   <5   <5
:Flatrock River
Columbus            11.0   15.0   19.0 :  60   44    7   <5   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon              17.0   27.0   32.0 :  17   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville       8.0   10.0   14.0 :  19   21   10   13    6    5
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi               8.0   12.0   15.0 :  45   45   <5    7   <5   <5
:Wabash River
Covington           16.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   93   21   20   <5   <5
Terre Haute         14.0   22.0   28.0 : >95   95   27   23   <5   <5
Hutsonville Legac   16.0   24.0   28.0 : >95  >95   16   19   <5   <5
Lafayette           11.0   18.0   26.0 :  95   93   33   31   <5   <5
Mount Carmel        19.0   25.0   32.0 : >95   87   51   43   <5   <5
Montezuma           14.0   24.0   31.0 : >95  >95   30   24   <5   <5
Riverton            15.0   22.0   26.0 : >95  >95   28   26   <5    6
Terre Haute         16.5   24.5   30.0 :  80   91   75   52   <5   <5
Vincennes           16.0   22.0   28.0 :  90   82   24   25   <5   <5
:White River
Anderson            10.0   15.0   19.0 :  42   25    8   <5   <5   <5
Eagle Valley Powe  603.0  607.0  610.0 :  58   56    7    7   <5   <5
Centerton           12.0   16.0   19.0 :  55   54    7    8   <5   <5
Elliston            18.0   25.0   29.0 : >95   93   27   22   <5   <5
Edwardsport         15.0   22.0   25.0 : >95   95   28   21   <5   <5
Hazleton            16.0   24.0   28.0 : >95   94   35   30   <5    7
Indianapolis        16.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Muncie               9.0   12.0   15.0 :  14    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Noblesville         14.0   19.0   22.0 :  39   40    6    7   <5   <5
Nora                11.0   16.0   19.0 :  40   42    9   10   <5   <5
Newberry            13.0   19.0   24.0 :  87   83   30   34   <5   <5
Petersburg          16.0   23.5   26.0 : >95   93   36   27    8    6
Ravenswood           6.0   10.0   12.0 :  50   49   10   10   <5   <5
Spencer             14.0   20.0   24.0 :  91   86   22   19   <5   <5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette           10.0   15.0   19.5 :  72   62   16   18   <5    8

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville           8.2    9.2   10.4   12.1   14.2   17.2   18.0
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2 SW        7.8    9.7   10.9   12.7   14.3   14.8   15.1
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville            3.7    4.0    4.5    5.3    8.4   11.4   12.5
:East Fork White River
Columbus              2.8    4.7    6.1    8.6   11.0   12.8   13.5
Rivervale            19.3   20.1   21.5   24.4   27.8   30.5   31.4
Bedford              18.0   18.4   19.5   22.3   25.3   28.2   28.9
Seymour              11.9   14.2   15.4   16.1   17.7   18.1   18.4
Shoals               12.1   12.7   14.6   18.3   24.2   26.5   27.9
Williams              7.0    7.4    8.0    9.8   13.0   15.2   15.5
:Eel River
Bowling Green        11.7   12.6   14.1   16.4   19.6   21.2   21.3
:Flatrock River
Columbus              7.6    8.9    9.8   11.7   13.4   14.8   15.1
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon                5.9    6.4    9.3   11.4   15.4   18.6   20.0
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville        3.7    4.1    4.5    5.5    6.9    9.8   14.7
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi                4.6    5.7    6.3    7.7    9.2   10.3   11.5
:Wabash River
Covington            16.3   17.6   19.4   21.2   23.7   24.8   25.9
Terre Haute          14.9   17.1   18.4   20.0   22.1   23.3   24.6
Hutsonville Legac    18.3   19.1   20.3   21.8   23.1   24.5   25.8
Lafayette            10.9   12.7   14.3   16.3   18.8   20.4   21.9
Mount Carmel         20.2   20.8   22.6   25.2   27.7   29.2   30.1
Montezuma            15.8   18.8   20.5   21.9   24.5   25.4   28.5
Riverton             17.1   17.8   19.1   20.7   22.2   23.9   25.3
Terre Haute          17.1   19.4   20.7   22.4   24.5   25.7   27.0
Vincennes            14.4   16.0   17.7   19.7   21.8   24.2   25.8
:White River
Anderson              7.0    8.0    8.7    9.5   11.0   14.5   15.8
Eagle Valley Powe   600.0  600.5  602.1  603.4  605.3  606.6  607.2
Centerton             7.9    8.5   10.7   12.4   14.6   15.8   16.2
Elliston             18.4   19.5   21.6   23.4   25.2   26.6   26.9
Edwardsport          16.3   17.2   18.7   20.3   22.2   23.9   24.1
Hazleton             20.5   20.7   21.3   22.8   24.9   26.4   27.9
Indianapolis          7.8    8.7    9.4   10.8   12.5   15.1   15.5
Muncie                5.8    6.4    6.9    7.3    8.2    9.3   11.0
Noblesville           8.9    9.8   10.9   12.5   16.0   17.7   19.5
Nora                  6.9    7.7    8.6    9.9   12.5   15.7   16.9
Newberry             11.4   12.5   15.0   17.0   19.5   22.0   22.2
Petersburg           19.8   19.9   20.7   22.3   24.5   25.6   26.7
Ravenswood            3.4    4.2    5.0    6.0    7.7   10.0   10.9
Spencer              13.1   14.1   16.3   17.8   19.6   21.6   22.2
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette             7.8    8.4    9.8   11.6   12.8   16.6   19.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville           5.5    5.4    5.4    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2 SW        3.3    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville            1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4
:East Fork White River
Columbus              1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.9
Rivervale             7.1    6.8    6.5    6.0    5.5    5.1    4.9
Bedford               5.3    4.9    4.4    3.9    3.4    3.0    2.8
Seymour               4.6    4.3    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.1    3.0
Shoals                5.2    5.1    4.8    4.5    4.2    4.0    3.6
Williams              2.9    2.8    2.6    2.3    2.0    1.9    1.5
:Eel River
Bowling Green         5.3    5.2    4.8    4.5    4.1    3.7    3.6
:Flatrock River
Columbus              4.1    3.9    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.3
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon                2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville        1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi                3.2    3.1    3.0    2.8    2.7    2.5    2.5
:Wabash River
Covington            10.9   10.0    7.4    6.4    5.9    5.4    5.4
Terre Haute           7.8    6.7    4.3    3.4    2.9    2.3    2.2
Hutsonville Legac    11.2   10.1    7.8    6.8    6.2    5.7    5.5
Lafayette             6.9    6.0    3.9    3.2    2.7    2.4    2.3
Mount Carmel          9.1    8.5    7.4    6.0    4.9    4.6    4.1
Montezuma             9.2    8.2    6.2    5.4    5.0    4.7    4.5
Riverton              9.9    8.9    6.5    5.5    4.8    4.3    4.1
Terre Haute          10.2    9.2    6.8    6.0    5.4    4.8    4.7
Vincennes             8.2    7.6    5.8    4.9    4.3    3.9    3.7
:White River
Anderson              4.7    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3
Eagle Valley Powe   595.3  595.2  594.9  594.7  594.6  594.5  594.5
Centerton             2.1    2.0    1.6    1.4    1.2    1.1    1.1
Elliston             10.4    9.7    8.7    7.5    6.8    6.4    6.2
Edwardsport           8.6    8.3    7.0    5.6    4.9    4.6    4.4
Hazleton              8.4    8.2    7.1    5.7    4.8    4.1    3.5
Indianapolis          4.4    4.3    4.0    3.9    3.7    3.6    3.6
Muncie                4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Noblesville           4.6    4.6    4.4    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0
Nora                  3.0    2.9    2.7    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3
Newberry              5.1    4.7    3.9    3.1    2.7    2.5    2.3
Petersburg            8.4    8.1    7.1    6.1    5.1    4.6    4.1
Ravenswood            0.5    0.5    0.4    0.3    0.3    0.2    0.2
Spencer               4.5    4.3    3.7    3.4    3.0    2.8    2.7
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette             4.0    4.0    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperatures forecasts and current soil moisture
data at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products. Current snowpack data are
available at www.nohrsc.nws.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are
available at water.usgs.gov/watchwatch. Visit out home page at
weather.gov/ind for more weather and water information.

The next outlook will be issued February 27th.

$$






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