780
FNUS76 KLOX 252321
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for Hughes...USFS
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
321 PM PST Sat Jan 25 2025

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM PST SUNDAY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY...


.DISCUSSION...

An approaching low pressure system will bring rain, a chance of
thunderstorms, and snow down to 3,500 feet through Monday. Off and
on again rain will begin overnight tonight, with the highest chances
of thunderstorms and heavier rain Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. Overall totals of 0.50 to 1 inch are expected, however the
convective nature of this system means rainfall totals could vary
dramatically depending on where these more intense rain occurs.
Localized higher rainfall rates (0.50-0.75 inches per hour) could
occur anywhere, and bring a threat (10-20% chance) of debris flows
in and around the burn scar. Cooler temperatures means the higher
surrounding peaks could see a rain and snow mix Sunday night with
snow levels down to 3,500 feet expected. Any thunderstorms that form
will be capable of producing brief, heavy downpours, locally gusty
winds, small hail, and could cause localized lower snow levels.
Thunderstorm (15-25%) chances begin Sunday, peaking from 4 PM Sunday
to 12 PM Monday. Wind gusts may trend 5 mph weaker than forecast.
Light rain could linger into Tuesday morning, then dry weather is
expected by Tuesday evening.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers.
Chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon.
Rainfall............0.25-0.35 inches.
Max temperature.....50-55.
Min humidity........75-85 percent.
Eye level winds.....South to southeast winds 4-7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South to southeast winds 8-15 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......South to southeast winds 8-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL becoming 5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms.
Rainfall............0.45-0.55 inches.
Min temperature.....36-41.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Eye level winds.....South to southeast winds 3-6 mph
becoming northeast 2-5 mph after midnight
Wind (20 ft)........South to southeast winds 6-12 mph
becoming northeast 5-10 mph after midnight.
Ridgetop wind.......South to southeast winds 8-15 mph
becoming northeast 6-12 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL becoming 1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 8 mph.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely.
Chance of thunderstorms in the morning.
Rainfall............0.15-0.25 inches.
Max temperature.....50-55.
Min humidity........55-65 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 3-6 with gusts to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast winds 8-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL becoming 5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 7 mph.

.OUTLOOK Tuesday JAN 21 INTO SATURDAY FEB 01...
After some lingering moisture and cooler weather into Tuesday
afternoon, dry weather with lower humidities will make a return
Tuesday evening through Thursday. Higher elevations could see gusty
offshore (north to northeast) winds returning Tuesday evening
through Thursday, with gusts around 35 to 40 mph especially during
the late night through morning hours. Very low confidence in another
low pressure system bringing light rain to the burn area as early
as Friday afternoon into Saturday.

$$
Forecaster...LUND
Requested by...Daniel Michael
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2501307.0/LOX
.DELDT 01/25/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel.michael@usda.gov,capt40@fire.lacounty.gov,dutyofficer@ceooem.lacounty.gov,eadirocco@gmail.com