133
FXUS66 KMFR 122359
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
459 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.DISCUSSION...Uodated aviation discussion.


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.AVIATION...13/00Z TAFs...Onshore flow near the coast (and at
North Bend) will maintain cloudier conditions there with MVFR
ceilings and local IFR/LIFR (Brookings). There can also be some
light rain/drizzle from the marine layer at times. Some clouds
will also prevail across the rest of northern Curry, Coos and
Douglas counties (as far east as the Cascades north of Mt
McLoughlin) with a mix of VFR/MVFR -- this affects Roseburg as
well. Some areas of higher terrain could also be obscured. Hi-res
guidance is showing a little cloudiness trying to bank up against
the Siskiyous tonight, and while any ceilings probably remain VFR,
there is about a 20-30% chance of an MVFR ceiling at Medford
early Friday morning. The rest of the area will be VFR through
Friday evening.

Locally breezy winds, especially along the coast and over the East
Side die down this evening, then re-surface Friday afternoon.
-Spilde


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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 202 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026/

DISCUSSION...Seasonal temperatures across the area and elevated
wind over terrain continue this afternoon. Westerly flow aloft is
keeping moisture moving onto the coast, bringing intermittent
activity. Remote observations indicate some parts of Douglas County
have seen around half an inch of rainfall in the past 24 hours, but
other coast and coast-adjacent areas have seen less than one tenth
of an inch. This general pattern looks to stay in place through
Friday as well.

On Saturday morning, a shortwave trough will pass to the north of
the area. This will push precipitation chances inland for areas west
of the Cascades, although rainfall in Siskiyou County looks to be
limited to western terrain. Curry County and the Cascades may see a
quarter to half and inch of rain, with the higher amounts limited to
elevated terrain. Snow levels of 5500 to 6500 feet will limit
snowfall to the highest peaks and ridgelines in the Cascades.
Precipitation dissipates into the afternoon. As the shortwave
continues traveling to the east, gusty winds are expected in Lake
County. The highest gusts may reach 45 to 50 mph, supporting a Wind
Advisory on Saturday afternoon into the evening. Please see NPWMFR
for more information.

On Sunday, the Pacific ridge looks to strengthen and is expected to
guide the weather through the week ahead. Daytime highs may reach 10
to 20 degrees above seasonal averages across the area. For coastal
areas, temperatures in the mid to high 60s are expected. Oregon
valleys and basins on either side of the Cascades could see mid to
high 70s. Low-lying areas in Siskiyou and Modoc counties could reach
the low 80s. Considering NBM probabilistic guidance, Alturas has a
50-60% chance to exceed 80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday,
while Montague and Medford have a 10-20% chance in that timeframe.
Temperatures could cool into next weekend. -TAD

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

KOTH will likely (50%-70%) remain in MVFR conditions throughout the
valid TAF cycle. KOTH will also see intermittent showers through
this cycle, especially overnight when chances (50%-60%) are the
greatest. KRBG will also see intermittent MVFR conditions early
today (improving conditions later today) and then MVFR returns again
overnight, but will likely miss out on the shower activity. KMFR
will likely (70%) remain in VFR through this cycle, with KLMT even
more likely (90%) to remain in VFR through this cycle.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Thursday, March 12, 2026...Gusty south
to southwest winds and steep to very steep seas are expected today
north of Cape Blanco with the strongest winds and steepest seas
north of the Umpqua River bar. While conditions improve briefly this
evening, a front will move southward and could bring another period
of gusty southwest winds and steep seas Friday and Friday night
followed by a wind shift to northerly by Saturday. Expect showers
across the waters on Saturday, but lightning/thunderstorms are not
expected.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$