Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221136 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 636 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the region through Thursday. The high moves away from the region on Friday. Low pressure impacts the region this weekend. High pressure builds back in early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 1034 high was centered over VA/WV this morning. The high will build over the forecast area today, producing dry weather and seasonal temperatures after a chilly start. The NBM was used for highs. Light winds due to the position of the high. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Fair weather will continue through Thursday with thickening high clouds late tonight and Thursday. A blend of the ADJMET/ADJMAV was used for temperatures tonight as the NBM looked very warm considering the lack of wind. The NBM was used however for highs on Thursday with a developing southwest wind. Temperatures looks to reach the 40s for all but the higher elevations across the interior. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Another dry day expected on Friday as high pressure remains in control. It will be mostly sunny with high clouds moving in through the afternoon ahead of a developing low pressure system. Temperatures will be above normal once again with highs in the 40s. The main focus for the long term remains the potential storm system for the weekend. Models continue to suggest a strong cutoff upper low tracking across the Ohio Valley and pushing eastward. A secondary low will form just off the coast bringing widespread precipitation into the area by Saturday morning and lingering into Sunday. Precip type will all depend on the track and evolution of the secondary low, but as of now it looks primarily to be a rain even for the coast with a wintry mix inland as the low looks to pass over or just south of Long Island. While the steadiest precip looks to move out by late Saturday night, cyclonic flow continues on Sunday which will keep lingering rain or snow showers in the forecast through most of the day. High pressure will build in behind the departing storm Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures about 5 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure settles over the area today and tonight. VFR with few high clouds. Winds remain light this morning, and then will be west/southwest around 5 kt this afternoon. Light or calm winds are expected tonight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday night...VFR. .Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in developing rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day diminish at night. .Sunday...MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain/snow mix possible in any showers across the interior. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. Winds and seas increase on Friday ahead of an approaching system. Seas on the ocean will build to 5 feet by Friday night with SCA conditions likely on Saturday for all waters. Winds and seas will remain at SCA levels through early Sunday across the ocean waters before subsiding late in the day. && .HYDROLOGY... A widespread precipitation event is likely this weekend. Precipitation amounts remain uncertain at this time therefore it is still too early to determine what impacts may occur. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...PW MARINE... HYDROLOGY... EQUIPMENT...

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