Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281704 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 104 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front approaches from the southwest through tonight and remains near the region on Sunday with low pressure moving across New England Sunday night into Monday. The low slowly moves off the coast Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure briefly returns. Another low passes to the south Wednesday with weak high pressure following for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mainly light rain has progressed as far east as central LI and SW CT and will continue a slow progression east as it runs into ridging and drier air. The rain may become more disjointed as the HRRR continues to suggest. As such have backed off slightly on rainfall totals this afternoon, averaging around a quarter inch. Low pressure tracks from the Central Plains to the middle MS Valley. While the primary low center of this storm system will be well west of us, its associated warm front will continue to slowly approach from the Mid Atlantic. Warm advection rain will continue through the night, possibly transitioning over to light rain and drizzle late at night as the mid levels begin to dry out. The one caveat here is that a departing surface ridge along the New England coast and deep-layered ridging aloft could take some time to moisten before being offset by thermal forcing and a SE LLJ that works across the area starting late this afternoon. East winds gradually strengthen through tonight with the potential for gusts up to 25 mph, mainly near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The warm front remains to our south Sunday into Sunday night as a wave of low pressure moves along it. There is however a chance that the front lifts through a portion of the forecast area late in the day into the evening. Rain is still likely in the morning and somewhat less likely in the afternoon although drizzle will be possible at any given point through the day as mid levels continue to dry out. A weak surface trough then pushes in Sunday night with 3KM NAM suggesting convective cells potentially moving in ahead of it as elevated instability will be present. Moisture would otherwise be shallow by this time and low levels will be stable. PoPs therefore continue to drop through the night and will leave out the mention of thunder, but there will still a chance of light rain or drizzle. The parent low of the storm system heads towards the Adirondacks Monday into Monday night, tracking along with a closed 500mb low. It should be dry through most of the morning for us, but cyclonic flow aloft and in increase in mid level moisture will bring low chances of showers in the afternoon and evening. Maybe a lingering shower still possible over eastern zones late at night with an inverted surface trough still in the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For now, will continue with a dry forecast for Tuesday as weak high pressure tries to build in, however an inverted surface trough and moisture convergence along it has a chance to linger INVOF the forecast area for a portion of the day. A progressive southern stream shortwave approaches the eastern seaboard Tuesday night. Energy with this shortwave may phase with some lingering northern stream energy from an offshore upper low on Wednesday. However, the main surface low is most likely to pass well to the south and east of the region off the Carolina coast with little to no impacts here. Will maintain low chance PoPs for Wednesday at this point, but should trends continue, might be able to remove PoPs altogether soon. The upper trough and surface low may linger across the Western Atlantic for the end of next week, but mostly dry conditions are anticipated over the CWA. Temperatures during the period should be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A warm front will approach from the southwest through tonight, and become stationary to the south on Sunday. VFR through early this afternoon, then lowering to MVFR toward evening and IFR tonight with rain moving in and becoming more steady. There will be LIFR at times in ceilings and visibilities overnight into early Sunday with fog in the forecast as well. Since rain has come in at the NYC metros, at least TEMPO lower conds could arrive 1-2 hr earlier than 12Z TAF indicates. E-SE winds generally 5-10 kt today (perhaps a little stronger at KJFK) will increase to 10-15G15-20kt, higher in the metros and close to the coast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday...Rain, drizzle, fog, with widespread IFR-LIFR conds. VLIFR possible attm especially along the coast. Conditions improving Sunday night, becoming VFR toward Monday morning. E winds G15-20 kt gradually taper off in the afternoon. .Monday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers possible in the afternoon and at night. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible light rain at night. .Wednesday...MVFR possible in showers. && .MARINE... In terms of winds, SCA conditions linger across the eastern waters on Sunday. Sub-SCA Sunday night through Tuesday night and then a return to SCA conditions on the ocean waters on Wednesday. SCA ocean seas forecast Sunday through Monday evening. For late Monday night through much of Tuesday night, sub-SCA. SCA seas on ocean forecast Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts may need to be adjusted downward based on incoming guidance. For now though, up to an inch of rainfall is forecast through Sunday night. This will be falling over a long period of time, so no hydrologic impacts are expected with this system. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the coming week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ UPDATE...DW AVIATION...Goodman/JM

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