Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 052036 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 436 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough low pressure trough will remain nearby tonight. A cold front will then move through on Saturday. High pressure will then build in from Saturday night into Sunday, moving overhead through mid week. A cold front will approach at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Main band of convective activity has formed across SE PA and central NJ, and is lifting slowly northward, while another band tries to form farther north across NJ where the air mass is conditionally unstable but still capped. Think the cap there should break over the next couple of hours, with additional showers and tstms filling in mainly across the NYC metro area. Still think the axis of heaviest rainfall will remain just south, but can`t rule out locally heavy showers/tstms going into this evening. This activity should gradually shift to Long Island and southern CT late this evening, with the axis of heaviest rainfall staying just south of the Island or skirting the south shore. Skies will remain overcast overnight, with areas of fog forming in the moist air mass as S-SW wind remain light. Low temps will be in the 60s per MOS blend. A high rip current risk continues for the ocean beaches today due to 4-ft S-SE long period swells. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will approach and pass through in the afternoon. Deep moisture is gone by this time, but still enough moisture for a chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Clearing otherwise, and with downsloping winds, deep mixing, and 850mb temps still 13-14C in the afternoon, highs generally in the lower/mid 80s, perhaps upper 80s in urban NE NJ. Still muggy in the morning with dewpoints in the mid 60s, then as mixing and fropa take place should drop off to the upper 50s by late day. Could still be a lingering shower or tstms mainly across S CT and Long Island toward evening, then drier and cooler conditions expected for Sat night with clearing skies. Low temps in the NYC metro area should be 60-65, with mid/upper 50s most elsewhere. There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches due to lingering long period swells. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front will push farther offshore Sunday morning with the upper trough axis crossing the region by Sunday afternoon. A few light showers are possible as the trough swings through, mainly across the southeastern CT and eastern LI. Otherwise, a much cooler and drier airmass will settle into the region with highs only in the 70s on Sunday with a clearing sky. Temperatures at night will drop into the 40s for the outlying areas and into the 50s closer to the NYC metro. Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure will build into northeast through the middle of next week resulting in a long stretch of dry weather. As high pressure moves overhead, temperatures will be rise to normal or a few degrees above through most of the week. For the second part of next week, an upper-level trough will approach the region from the west, breaking down the ridge. Rain returns to the forecast late Thursday into Friday associated with an approaching cold front. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A trough of low pressure gradually draws closer and will be in the vicinity of the terminals through tonight. A cold front will approach the terminals on Saturday and move through by Saturday evening. City terminals will be mainly VFR through about 22z or so. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage during the early evening, with far southwestern terminals possibly seeing TSRA one to two hours sooner. Showers continue into the first half of the overnight, ending from west to east from 4 to 8z. IFR conditions prevail tonight, with the potential for a few of the non city terminals approaching LIFR for a few hours late tonight. VFR conditions are then expected to return during Saturday morning. Then there is the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon. Confidence remains rather low with respect to thunderstorms and how widespread they may be on Saturday. The winds become more due south into this evening at around 5-10 kt. Winds diminish later tonight and could become light and/or variable, especially at some of the non-city / non-coastal terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sat...Becoming VFR am. SW / W gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon, becoming NW by early evening. Chance of showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and early evening. .Sun...VFR. NW gusts 15-20 kt. .Mon-Wed...VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are forecast through early next week on all waters. Cancelled earlier SCA as ocean seas are running a ft shy of previous forecast, and expect no higher than 4 ft in S-SW flow tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor nuisance flooding will be possible late today into this evening, with still a low chance of flash flooding. Rain amounts through tonight will vary greatly from north to south, with 1/2 to 1 inch and locally higher amts for Long Island and the NYC metro area, and less than 1/2 inch farther north. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A slightly lower surge with tonight`s high tide along with a full moon should make total water levels just touch or slightly exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks for the south shore back bays and the Southern Fairfield CT shorelines. A statement has been issued. Other shoreline locations should fall short of minor coastal flood benchmarks. A coastal flood statement may be needed for Saturday evening`s high tide for the south shore back bays and for the Southern Fairfield CT shoreline. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power. KOKX WSR-88D radar will be down until approximately June 15 for the pedestal refurbishment. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...JE MARINE...CB HYDROLOGY...CB/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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