Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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737 FXUS61 KOKX 210809 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 409 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure along the east coast will be slow to work east this weekend. A cold front then approaches from the west on Monday and moves through Monday night. High pressure returns for the remainder of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A high amplitude ridge across the eastern half of the country will result in a dry, unseasonably warm weekend. Outside of some thin high clouds, expect a sunny day. A weak W/SW flow this morning will become onshore late this morning into this afternoon due to seabreeze development. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 80s, but slightly cooler along the immediate coastline. There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches today. The highest surf will be in the morning, gradually subsiding in the afternoon as the long period swells lessen. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Both the upper ridge and surface high will gradually work offshore tonight into Sunday, while an amplifying upper trough approaches from the Great Lakes. The latter of which will send a cold front into the area late Monday into Monday night. Between the departing high and approaching cold front, a SW flow will gradually strengthen, becoming strongest Monday afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph. Highest gusts will be near the coast. It will also remain unseasonably warm, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s with lows moderating from the mid 50s to mid 60s Sunday morning, to the mid and upper 60s Monday morning. There is a chance of showers with an isolated thunderstorm Monday afternoon/night with the cold front. While there is strengthening of the vertical wind profile as heights fall with the incoming upper trough, instability remains weak. There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure then keeps us dry Tuesday and Wednesday along with high temperatures closer to normal. A cold front associated with low pressure tracking through southern Canada then approaches on Thursday. The upper flow is progged to be more zonal than cyclonic, so the front therefore weakens as it approaches us. Have maintained a slight chance of showers with this front for Thursday. High pressure builds back in on Friday with dry weather. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains over the terminals through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected. Light and variable winds can be expected outside of NYC terminals going into early today while NYC terminals will have 5-7 kt SW-WNW flow. S-SW flow of 5-10 kts expected this afternoon with sea breeze expected to move into coastal terminals so KEWR will have a more SE flow late in the day. Winds decrease to around 5kts or less and become more variable in direction outside NYC terminals tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Late Tonight through Sunday...VFR. .Monday...MVFR possible. Chance of showers afternoon into night with a slight chance of thunderstorms. SW gusts 15-20kt day into early evening. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. .Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Easterly swell will gradually diminish today with sub-SCA conditions forecast by afternoon. As high pressure gradually works offshore southerly winds will gradually increase through the time period with SCA conditions likely to return to the ocean waters Sunday night into Monday. Marginal SCA conditions will be possible for eastern LI Sound and all of the bays surrounding LI. Winds and seas then diminish on Tuesday, with all waters below advisory criteria by Tuesday night. Relatively tranquil conditions then continue through Wednesday with a weak pressure gradient and lack of significant swell. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JM MARINE...DW HYDROLOGY...DW EQUIPMENT...//

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