Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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385 FXUS61 KOKX 250010 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 810 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure pushes off the northern New England coast with high pressure building in tonight. The high shifts south of the area Tuesday followed by a warm front Tuesday night. A cold front approaches the region on Wednesday, moving through into Thursday morning. High pressure then returns from the Great lakes Thursday into Friday, before sliding offshore this weekend as a frontal system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Any shower activity to the north and northwest has waned with nightfall. The upper level trough axis shifts east, thus a dry night ahead with lightening winds as low pressure near the Maine coast exits and high pressure over the Midwest builds closer. W-WNW gusts will diminish through the next several hours, but may remain gusty near the coast for much of the night. The pressure gradient will relax further early Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in from the west. Clouds will slowly clear from W to E with lows falling into the lower 60s inland and middle and upper 60s elsewhere. A comfortable night with dew points in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave ridging builds over the northeast on Tuesday with the core of the surface high settling over the southeast. This will allow the flow to become W-SW through the day. Most of the area will see highs in the middle to upper 80s, but the usual warmer NE NJ and NYC metro will observe highs around 90 degrees. Dew points will remain in the 50s with potential for readings to mix into the low 50s in the usual warmer spots. While actual air temperatures may touch the low 90s in the NYC metro, the low humidity will make it feel a few degrees lower in the upper 80s. The ridge flattens as it moves offshore Tuesday evening. The next shortwave will begin amplifying over the Lakes Tuesday night as it begins to approach. A warm front should begin lifting towards the area, but there is no appreciable support aloft and have left the forecast dry through day break Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will be milder with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s with middle 70s in the NYC metro. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points: * Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front late Wednesday could become strong to severe and produce locally heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and hail. * Heat indices may approach 100 degrees in the NYC metro and northeast NJ. Cooler, drier conditions return Thursday and Friday. No significant changes in the long term with this update. Global guidance continues to remain in fair agreement and the National Blend of Models was followed closely. An amplifying northern stream upper trough moves through the Great Lakes and northeast Wednesday through Thursday with a surface low tracking across southeastern Canada. Deep southwest flow ahead of the system`s cold front will bring a warm and humid air mass into the region Wednesday. Precipitable water values approach 2 inches and strong upper lift with CAPE over 1000 J/kg in the afternoon should allow convective development by late Wednesday into Wednesday night. SPC currently has a slight risk outlined for portions of the lower Hudson Valley, with the rest of the region in marginal. The greatest threat from any stronger thunderstorm would likely be damaging wind gusts, but large hail and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding is also a threat into Wednesday night. In addition to the convective threat, temperatures ahead of the front on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region away from marine influence. Coupled with the increasing moisture, heat indices may approach 100 in the hottest areas, and this may necessitate a heat advisory if these values hold, particularly in NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro. Will continue to monitor trends, but this would be short-lived, as high pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring a return to a more tolerable air mass as dew points drop into the 50s. Another frontal system approaches Saturday with a warm front moving north, with increased humidity, likely bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west through tonight and remains through Tuesday. VFR. Gusty W/NW winds gradually diminish through the late evening. Gusts initially around 30 kt subside and end at most terminals from 04z- 07z. Winds then remain around 7-10 kt overnight and into Tuesday. The winds will then back to the west towards midday Tuesday and start to back a bit more to the SW at most terminals late in the day. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind gusts ending tonight may be an hour or two too soon. Timing of winds backing may be off by an hour or two on Tuesday. OUTLOOK FOR 0Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night: VFR with mainly SW winds. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon, and likely at night, with MVFR or lower possible. SW wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast. Thursday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers, then VFR. Friday: VFR. Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remains in effect for all other waters where gusts 25 to 30 kt persist through 06z as high pressure begins building towards the waters. Should begin to see the non- ocean waters fall below 25 kt towards midnight or shortly thereafter, and the ocean waters getting closer to dawn. Ocean seas subside tonight and should fall below 5 ft by day break. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night with high pressure in control. Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday will likely result in SCA conditions on the ocean waters, and possible on the south shore bays, Long Island Sound, and eastern Long Island bays as well. Ocean seas also build to 5 to 7 ft during this time. Winds begin to subside as the cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, but ocean sea remain elevated into Thursday near 5 ft. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels on all the forecast waters Thursday night through Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front and could produce locally heavy downpours that lead to minor flooding, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas. The risk of flash flooding appears localized at this time, but cannot be entirely ruled out given a moist environment. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A moderate rip current risk is in place for all local Atlantic facing beaches on Tuesday with low surf and offshore winds. Increasing southwest winds and seas will result in a high risk of rip current development on Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NJ...None. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DR/DS NEAR TERM...JE/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...JE MARINE...JE/DS HYDROLOGY...DR/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR