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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281704
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
104 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches from the southwest through tonight and
remains near the region on Sunday with low pressure moving across
New England Sunday night into Monday. The low slowly moves off the
coast Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure briefly returns.
Another low passes to the south Wednesday with weak high pressure
following for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mainly light rain has progressed as far east as central LI and
SW CT and will continue a slow progression east as it runs into
ridging and drier air. The rain may become more disjointed as
the HRRR continues to suggest. As such have backed off slightly
on rainfall totals this afternoon, averaging around a quarter
inch.

Low pressure tracks from the Central Plains to the middle MS
Valley. While the primary low center of this storm system will
be well west of us, its associated warm front will continue to
slowly approach from the Mid Atlantic. Warm advection rain will
continue through the night, possibly transitioning over to
light rain and drizzle late at night as the mid levels begin to
dry out. The one caveat here is that a departing surface ridge
along the New England coast and deep-layered ridging aloft
could take some time to moisten before being offset by thermal
forcing and a SE LLJ that works across the area starting late
this afternoon.

East winds gradually strengthen through tonight with the
potential for gusts up to 25 mph, mainly near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front remains to our south Sunday into Sunday night as a
wave of low pressure moves along it. There is however a chance that
the front lifts through a portion of the forecast area late in the
day into the evening. Rain is still likely in the morning and
somewhat less likely in the afternoon although drizzle will be
possible at any given point through the day as mid levels continue
to dry out. A weak surface trough then pushes in Sunday night with
3KM NAM suggesting convective cells potentially moving in ahead
of it as elevated instability will be present. Moisture would
otherwise be shallow by this time and low levels will be stable.
PoPs therefore continue to drop through the night and will
leave out the mention of thunder, but there will still a chance
of light rain or drizzle.

The parent low of the storm system heads towards the Adirondacks
Monday into Monday night, tracking along with a closed 500mb low. It
should be dry through most of the morning for us, but cyclonic flow
aloft and in increase in mid level moisture will bring low chances
of showers in the afternoon and evening. Maybe a lingering shower
still possible over eastern zones late at night with an inverted
surface trough still in the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For now, will continue with a dry forecast for Tuesday as weak high
pressure tries to build in, however an inverted surface trough and
moisture convergence along it has a chance to linger INVOF the
forecast area for a portion of the day.

A progressive southern stream shortwave approaches the eastern
seaboard Tuesday night. Energy with this shortwave may phase with
some lingering northern stream energy from an offshore upper low on
Wednesday. However, the main surface low is most likely to pass well
to the south and east of the region off the Carolina coast with
little to no impacts here. Will maintain low chance PoPs for
Wednesday at this point, but should trends continue, might be able
to remove PoPs altogether soon.

The upper trough and surface low may linger across the Western
Atlantic for the end of next week, but mostly dry conditions are
anticipated over the CWA.

Temperatures during the period should be near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will approach from the southwest through tonight,
and become stationary to the south on Sunday.

VFR through early this afternoon, then lowering to MVFR toward
evening and IFR tonight with rain moving in and becoming more
steady. There will be LIFR at times in ceilings and visibilities
overnight into early Sunday with fog in the forecast as well.
Since rain has come in at the NYC metros, at least TEMPO lower
conds could arrive 1-2 hr earlier than 12Z TAF indicates.

E-SE winds generally 5-10 kt today (perhaps a little stronger
at KJFK) will increase to 10-15G15-20kt, higher in the metros
and close to the coast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday...Rain, drizzle, fog, with widespread IFR-LIFR conds.
VLIFR possible attm especially along the coast. Conditions
improving Sunday night, becoming VFR toward Monday morning. E
winds G15-20 kt gradually taper off in the afternoon.
.Monday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers possible in the
afternoon and at night.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible light rain at night.
.Wednesday...MVFR possible in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
In terms of winds, SCA conditions linger across the eastern waters
on Sunday. Sub-SCA Sunday night through Tuesday night and then a
return to SCA conditions on the ocean waters on Wednesday.

SCA ocean seas forecast Sunday through Monday evening. For late
Monday night through much of Tuesday night, sub-SCA. SCA seas on
ocean forecast Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts may need to be adjusted downward based on
incoming guidance. For now though, up to an inch of rainfall is
forecast through Sunday night. This will be falling over a long
period of time, so no hydrologic impacts are expected with this
system. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the coming
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Sunday for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ330-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...Goodman/JM