754
FXUS61 KOKX 102004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits off the Mid Atlantic coast into tonight. High
pressure builds in from New England on Saturday, then another
frontal system tracks through Saturday night into Sunday. High
pressure briefly returns on Monday before a warm front passes
through Monday night. Another frontal system will then impact
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Gloomy end to the workweek with a strung out wave of low pressure
passing off the Mid Atlantic coast. Intermittent periods of rain,
mostly light, persist thru the remainder of the day, particularly
the western half of the region. Coverage is expanding a bit
over NJ as the trough axis moves through and this activity will
attempt to advance east before conditions begin to dry out this
evening. Rain tapers everywhere by midnight. Additional QPF
totals up to a tenth of an inch or so, mainly from NYC on west.

An easterly breeze begins to subside this evening as the low
passes. Surface high pressure briefly returns in its wake and
cloud cover should diminish considerably overnight, perhaps
even becoming clear toward daybreak Saturday. With the rain,
clouds, and onshore wind, temperatures have been running a good
10 to 15 degrees below normal for early to mid May and and the
clearing should set up a chilly night, mainly falling into the
low to mid 40s, with upper 40s in the metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain seasonably cool through the weekend as the
region remains entrenched in a H5 trough situated over the
Eastern US. While dry to start, the next shortwave in the flow
swing east, returning rain chances for the second half of the
weekend.

Saturday will be the drier, more pleasant, of the days this
weekend as surface high pressure noses down from New England.
Despite the sunshine early, temperatures remain cooler than
normal in a persistent onshore wind with most areas topping out
in the low to mid 60s on Saturday.

Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and rising rain chances
west of NYC as the weak frontal system approaches. The showers
should run into drier air and ridging as it pushes east, and
much of southern CT and eastern Long Island may remain
predominantly dry during this period. But to the west, showers
likely develop by daybreak Sunday, and may continue intermittently
thru the early afternoon before tapering. Rainfall with this
system appears light, under a quarter inch everywhere.

Slow improvement Sunday afternoon and evening as high pressure
begins to return once again, but remaining chilly, with most in
the 50s during the day, and falling into the 40s overnight into
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave ridging builds in aloft on Monday with weak high pressure
at the surface. A frontal system passing across eastern Canada will
then send a warm front through the area Monday night with a low
chance of showers. However, much of Monday into the first half of
Tuesday should be dry with seasonable temperatures on Monday, but
then warming to above normal, by about 3 to 5 degrees on Tuesday.

A southern branch storm system over the Central Plains works
eastward through midweek, being tugged on by a passing northern
stream vortex tracking across eastern Canada. Globals vary a bit on
the interaction and timing of the southern branch system, but
overall there is good agreement. Thus, stayed close to a consensus
forecast. A strengthening southerly flow develops Tuesday into
Tuesday night ahead of the system with increasing chances of rain,
especially at night. A frontal wave develops to the south Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This turns winds around to E/NE with a more
stable airmass and the potential for stratiform rain to the north of
the low track. Any instability is weak with the best chance for any
thunderstorms being Tuesday evening/night. There is the chance for
some decent rainfall though depending on the proximity to the
surface low with a chance of good frontogenetic forcing just north
of the low track. It is much too early to be specific with rainfall
amounts, but the potential is there for an inch or more. System is
also fairly progressive, limiting the flood threat. As for
temperatures, Wednesday cools down a bit, but then Thursday and
Friday are back to readings a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in from the northeast tonight and remains
over the Northeast through Saturday.

Conditions are improving over eastern terminals as clouds are
scattering out there. Expect improvement to continue from northeast
to southwest, with a forecast return to VFR around 21Z or an hour or
two thereafter. Showers are also still possible, but they are
expected to be light and have no impact to visibility.

East winds 10-15 kt diminish this evening, becoming light and
variable in some outlying terminals. Gusts for the most part are
more occasional to around 20 kt. Winds shift more NE this evening
into tonight, then back to the E Saturday morning before sea breezes
affect the terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Conditions becoming VFR this evening, there is some uncertainty in
when conditions will be prevailing VFR.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. SE winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms. SW G15-20kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusts have largely lowered under 25 kt on non ocean waters and the
Small Craft Advisory that was in effect here has been expired. Seas
up to 6 ft remain on ocean zones, and this should linger into the
overnight before falling below advisory criteria. Sub SCA
conditions thru early next week.

A moderate southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid week frontal
system could bring winds and seas on the ocean close to SCA
conditions late Monday into Tuesday. An easterly flow develops north
of a frontal wave on Wednesday with the potential for seas building
further.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding continues tonight, but coverage will be
less than last night. Maintained coastal flood advisories for
the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern
Queens, along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester.
Have chosen based on latest trends from taking an average of
Stevens, ETSS, and ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements
for Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones.
Statements which were previously in effect for Southern Suffolk,
NW Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northern Queens have been
discontinued as water levels have trended down and are no longer
expected to meet minor benchmarks.

Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could
be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise
this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come
to an end later in the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JE/DR