Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FGUS73 KPAH 121713
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-191200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for March through May. It includes the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana,
southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is above average or above normal for much of the
Ohio and Mississippi basins and their tributaries across southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, southeast Missouri and west Kentucky.
Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...Precipitation since last fall has
been above normal. 125% to 150% of normal rain has fallen over the
last year. Periodic rounds of heavy have fallen since December 1
producing rivers that are continuing to run above normal across the
region. Minor to moderate flooding has already occurred across the
region in January and February of this year.

Snow is confined to only the extreme northern parts of the
Mississippi River Basin where liquid water equivalents are running
from 2 to 8 inches. Frost depths are near normal for this time of
year with no frost depth reported in the service area. Soil moisture
is much above normal and conditions are nearly saturated across the
region.

Given all these factors, flood risk remains above normal across the
region. Additional flooding through the spring will be mainly
dependent on the track of spring storm systems. Elevated river levels
can be expected into at least the first part of spring.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  65   38   49   27   <5   <5
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  85   65   42   23   <5   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  79   65   52   38   23   19
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  30   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  54   45   <5    7   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  78   67   <5    6   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  84   76   <5   <5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  42   32   <5    7   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  85   81   40   37   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  83   71    6    7   <5   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  80   61   58   46   24   16
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  48   41   40   34   28   21
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  89   80   34   26   <5   <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff        16.0   19.0   21.0 :  38   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Current River
Doniphan            13.0   18.0   22.0 :  31   18    6   <5   <5   <5
Van Buren           20.0   23.0   27.0 :  16   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St. Francis River
Fisk                20.0   22.0   26.0 :  21   22   18   18   10   11
Patterson           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  63   59   14   14   <5   <5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  63   54   18   17   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  89   70   42   39   17   16

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              16.4   17.1   21.1   25.8   30.4   31.0   31.3
Paradise            377.4  379.1  381.9  384.7  388.8  391.6  392.7
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                21.6   23.7   28.2   32.3   34.8   36.3   37.0
:Ohio River
Evansville           31.1   33.0   37.6   40.8   42.3   43.2   43.9
Golconda             34.7   35.4   37.7   40.5   45.0   46.8   48.7
Mount Vernon         30.1   31.7   36.0   39.6   41.4   43.0   44.3
Newburgh Dam         33.5   35.7   41.4   43.2   44.5   45.3   46.1
Owensboro            30.3   32.0   36.9   39.3   41.4   42.6   43.8
Shawneetown          30.0   31.4   36.2   40.9   46.2   47.7   49.3
J.T. Myers Dam       33.6   35.0   39.0   42.5   46.3   47.8   49.2
:Patoka River
Princeton            14.2   16.2   18.9   20.5   22.9   24.4   24.9
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            9.6   10.3   12.1   14.5   20.6   24.3   25.6
:Wabash River
New Harmony          13.8   14.8   17.5   18.9   20.6   21.7   22.2
:Black River
Poplar Bluff          8.8    9.6   10.3   10.7   11.2   17.5   18.7
:Current River
Doniphan              3.4    4.4    5.9   11.1   13.6   17.3   18.1
Van Buren             4.5    5.3    6.5    7.7   10.7   14.3   18.5
:St. Francis River
Fisk                  7.5    7.5   10.3   14.3   18.1   26.1   27.4
Patterson             9.3    9.9   14.1   18.1   21.6   26.1   27.9
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            18.3   18.3   18.7   21.0   23.6   29.1   33.4
Murphysboro          21.0   21.9   23.5   26.8   33.8   40.9   42.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              12.4   12.2   11.8   11.5   11.0   10.4   10.3
Paradise            367.9  367.4  366.6  366.2  365.1  364.4  364.2
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 8.8    6.8    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.1    2.9
:Ohio River
Evansville           16.4   16.1   15.4   14.6   14.2   13.9   13.8
Golconda             29.8   29.7   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6
Mount Vernon         23.9   23.9   23.7   23.5   23.5   23.4   23.4
Newburgh Dam         17.0   16.6   15.6   14.7   14.0   13.7   13.6
Owensboro            19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
Shawneetown          18.4   17.9   17.0   16.0   15.7   15.5   15.4
J.T. Myers Dam       19.3   18.6   16.8   15.4   14.6   13.9   13.6
:Patoka River
Princeton             9.0    8.2    7.2    5.5    4.4    3.8    3.7
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2
:Wabash River
New Harmony           5.8    5.2    4.3    3.4    2.8    2.4    2.1
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            11.5   10.9    9.4    8.2    6.8    6.5    6.1
Murphysboro          13.9   12.0   11.5    9.1    5.9    3.6    3.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

...Weather Outlooks...

A wet pattern will continue through the latter half of March.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will bring 2 to 4 inches of
rain through the next week with locally higher amounts possible.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 19 through 25 calls for near
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this
time, normal average temperatures are around 50 degrees and rainfall
during this period is just under one inch.

The Outlook for March calls for above normal chances for
precipitation across the region. Normal precipitation for March is
between and 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May
calls for above normal precipitation.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.

This will be the last Spring Flood Outlook for the 2020 season.

$$

Lamm







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