Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 212029
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
129 PM MST Sat May 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will stay positioned just to the north of
the region through early next week, keeping temperatures near
normal while skies remain generally clear. As high pressure
spreads over the region during the middle to latter half of next
week, a warming trend will push highs across the lower deserts
above 100 degrees by around Wednesday and likely at or just above
105 degrees late next week. No rain expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing across the CONUS is expected to linger as we head
into the early part of the work week. Several disturbances will
move over the desert southwest through then, resulting in periods
of breezy conditions and high clouds from time to time. Max wind
gusts through Monday will most likely be in the 20-25 mph range.
Wind Advisory criteria is not expected to be met. Due to breezy
winds, areas of lofted dust will also be possible. As a result of
lower heights, we will continue to see a break in the triple digit
temperatures through Monday, with highs near normal. The chance
of seeing 100 degrees is less than 10% through Monday. Low
temperatures will be pleasant and in the 60s/low 70s.

There still continues to be agreement that an anomalous high will
build into the region Tuesday, with heights over our area peaking
on Thursday/Friday. Currently, the NBM has a ~90% chance of
temperatures exceeding 100 degrees on Thursday & Friday. The
chance of exceeding 110 degrees with this heat wave is currently
less than 5%. Regardless, these temperatures will be approaching
10 degrees above average and due to this, there will be areas of
high HeatRisk Thursday/Friday. With heat being the #1 weather-
related killer, the proper precautions should be taken to limit
the effects of these very warm temperatures. Drink plenty of
water, check on yourself and others, and never ever leave a child
or pet in the car. After this heat wave, all of the ensemble
models are hinting at a little bit of relief as a trough starts to
dig into the western CONUS sometime end of next week.The
uncertainty lies on the timing of this next trough and how long
this next heat wave will last.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1833Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

South to southwest winds will prevail through this afternoon with
gusts mostly between 15-20 kts, however gusts between 20-25 kts
will be possible during mid to late afternoon. Winds are light
this morning over the metro terminals. Winds subside this evening
and return easterly around midnight. Expect similar conditions
Sunday. Skies will be mostly clear with a few passing high clouds
Sunday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Typical diurnal winds are expected through the TAF period at both
terminals with 15-20 kt gusts common in the afternoon and evening.
Gusts at KIPL may reach 20-25 kts with the evening sundowner
winds. Skies remain mostly clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weather system positioned north of the region will slowly lift
to the northeast through early next week. This will keep
temperatures near normal, while also providing for some daily
afternoon breezes up to 20 mph. Humidities today will remain
somewhat elevated with MinRHs between 15-20%, but with drying over
the region starting Sunday, MinRHs will drop back to around 10%.
High pressure will eventually build back over the region by the
middle of next week leading to a warming trend and temperatures
climbing well above normal later next week. A slight increase in
winds also looks possible late next week with a return of
afternoon gusty winds above 20 mph. The weather pattern will also
keep dry conditions in place through the end of next week with
MinRHs generally between 5-10% and MaxRH values commonly between
20-35%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Feldkircher
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman


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