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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170930
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
530 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave moving across the forecast area
will continue to result in showers and thunderstorms today. TUTT
low will continue west of the forecast area through late tonight
as an upper ridge builds from the north through Saturday. An area
of low pressure about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is
expected to move across the Caribbean Sea on Saturday. This will
increase the potential for gusty winds and thunderstorms across
the Caribbean waters.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday...

Unsettle weather conditions will continue to prevail throughout the
day as an upper level trough/TUTT low interacts with a tropical wave
moving across the local isles. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms -squally weather type- will continue to be high
particularly during the morning hours across the USVI and the
eastern half of Puerto Rico as well as the local waters. Shower and
thunder development across west Puerto Rico this afternoon will be
dependent on cloud cover. The potential for urban and small stream
flooding as well as strong gusty winds continues.

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to build across the forecast
area tonight, as the aformentioned trough aloft/TUTT low shifts
westward. However, the ridge pattern aloft is expected to be short-
lived as trofiness returns to the local isles on Sunday. Therefore,
as the tropical wave moves away later today and an upper level ridge
builds, a fair weather pattern is expected to prevail on Friday. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase once again on
Saturday as invest 91L moves south of the area but peripheral
moisture reaches the forecast area. Based on the NHC forecast,
this area has a formation chance of 60 percent in the next 48
hours. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Another area of low pressure, invest 92L, currently has a 50
percent chance of formation through the next 5 days. This system
however is expected to encounter unfavorable upper level winds
and move close or just to the northeast of the islands on Sunday
as a tropical wave. Overall, precipitable water content will
remain high through the first half of next week. As another
tropical wave is forecast to reach the local area on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR or even IFR conds will remain possible at all TAF
sites in SHRA/TSRA as a tropical wave and associated moisture moves
across the area. ESE winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 35knots.
Wx conditions are expected to improve tonight.



&&

.MARINE...Hazardous seas will continue today across the regional
waters due to seas between 6-8 feet and easterly winds between
15-22 kts. Strong thunderstorms with frequent lightning and gusty
winds are expected today as a tropical wave continues to exit the
local area. There is a high rip current risk for beaches across
the north, east and south coast of PR and St. Croix. Hazardous
seas are expected once again on Saturday morning as a low pressure
area moves across the Caribbean Sea.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  80  88  79 /  70  20  20  40
STT  88  79  92  80 /  70  30  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for Central
     Interior-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Western Interior.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for St Croix.


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for
     Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-
     Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST this evening for Anegada
     Passage Southward to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto
     Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra
     out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and
     Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Friday for Atlantic Waters
     of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...OM
LONG TERM....DS