2 products issued by NWS for: 3 Miles SSE Melbourne Beach FL
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Melbourne FL 643 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-250000- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia- Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia- Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia- Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River- Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard- Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 643 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Florida. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight over the Atlantic waters pushing onshore coastal sections south of the Cape. .RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT... There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at area beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone. .WIND AND SEA IMPACT... East to southeast winds will increase 15 to 20 knots tonight with sea building to 6 feet south of Cape Canaveral. .RIVER FLOOD IMPACT... The Saint Johns River near Astor remains in Moderate Flood Stage today but will continue a slow decline and is forecast to fall into Minor Flood Stage late this week. However, heavy rain associated with a developing tropical cyclone later this week may halt the river`s decline. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to develop into a Tropical Storm over the northwest Caribbean Sea today. From there this system is forecast to strengthen as it lifts northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, and is currently forecast to make landfall as a Major Hurricane near the Florida Big Bend region late Thursday or Thursday evening. Shower and storm chances will rise into mid to late week, with greatest impacts from this system occurring across the area from Wednesday night into Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. Tropical storm conditions will be possible across portions of the area as this is forecast to become a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated tornadoes may also occur and dangerous boating and surf conditions are forecast to develop during Thursday and Thursday evening. Visitors and residents across east central Florida should keep a close eye on the forecast, and be alert for additional watches and warnings regarding this system. Now is a good time to ensure you hurricane kit and plan are in place. Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement issued by NWS Melbourne for tropical impacts expected across east central Florida later this week. Hot temperatures late this week are forecast to produce peak heat indices of 104 to 108 on Friday and 100 to 105 Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. $$ Kelly
Hurricane Local Statement
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Local Statement Advisory Number 4
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-241700-
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL092024
522 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
This product covers East Central Florida
**TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE, SEMINOLE, ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES**
NEW INFORMATION
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* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Lake,
Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake, Orange,
Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 690 miles south of Leesburg FL
- 18.9N 83.0W
- Storm Intensity 35 mph
- Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 8 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is located southwest of the Cayman
Islands this morning and is forecast to move northwest toward the
Yucatan Channel over the next 24 hours. The system is expected to
strengthen to a tropical storm today. It is then forecast to intensify
into a hurricane as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico by early
Wednesday.
Tropical moisture will quickly increase with developing outer rain
bands forecast to affect the area beginning Wednesday and increasing
in coverage Wednesday night. Multiple rounds of rainfall are
expected, especially as the system makes its closest approach from
Wednesday night into Thursday. Locally higher rainfall totals will
result from rain bands repeatedly moving over the same locations.
Generally, 1 to 4 inches of total rainfall are forecast areawide with
locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible. These rainfall
amounts, along with instances of higher rainfall rates, will be
capable of producing flooding in low-lying and urban areas. Ponding of
water on roadways may also lead to hazardous driving conditions. Any
future adjustments in the track of this system may result in changes
to the current rainfall forecast.
Continued strengthening is forecast as the storm moves northward
toward a landfall near Florida`s Big Bend sometime late Thursday. It
could become a major hurricane prior to landfall, and the area of
tropical storm force winds is expected to encompass a large area. The
potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph exists, especially across Lake
County. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange, Seminole,
Osceola, and Lake Counties for the potential of tropical storm force
winds beginning on Thursday. The Tropical Storm Watch includes the
Greater Orlando area.
In addition to strong wind gusts, a few tornadoes embedded in rain
bands are possible, mainly on Thursday, as the system moves northward.
Along the coast, battering surf from Wednesday night into Thursday
night will cause dangerous beach conditions. Run-up to the dune line
or sea walls may result in some beach erosion.
Do not let your guard down, especially in locations east of the
current Tropical Storm Watch. Impacts from this tropical cyclone will
be experienced far from the center of the storm. Now is the time to
ensure your hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in
place.
As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine becomes better organized over the
next day or so, additional changes to the forecast are possible.
Eastward shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for
additional impacts locally, so continue to monitor the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather
Service in Melbourne, Florida.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across Lake County. Potential impacts
include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the remainder of east central Florida.
* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across inland
Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange and Osceola Counties. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around NOON EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
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