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Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1142 AM AKDT Sat Sep 24 2022

 Heavy Rain And River Rises Possible Sunday Through Wednesday For SE

An atmospheric river with embedded systems is expected to impact
Southeast Alaska Sunday through Wednesday. Ensemble guidance
continues to indicate that there will be two separate rain events
with the same atmospheric river; the first for the S half of the
panhandle, and the second focused more on the N and central
panhandle. These events will likely result in river rises from the
substantial rainfall that is expected.

The first event, beginning Sunday, is forecast to primarily impact
southern half panhandle as an atmospheric river originating west of
Hawaii moves NE and into the area. Moderate to heavy rain is likely
at times through the day on Sunday before a developing wave along
the atmospheric river begins refocusing the rain across the entirety
of the panhandle through much of Monday.

A significantly stronger event will likely impact the N half of the
panhandle and NE Gulf Coast from Monday onwards. The plume of
moisture could remain over this area through much of Wednesday
before a front approaching from the west absorbs the remainder of
the atmospheric river.

Uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of the
heaviest rain but ensembles, and now deterministic models, continue
to indicate that large portions of Southeast Alaska will see an
extended period of heavy rainfall through the middle of the coming
week. Best probabilistic guidance is indicating the possibility of 5
year or
larger events for some locations where historical data is available.

This hydrologic statement will continue to be updated as new
information become available.



Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Juneau AK
138 PM AKDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Municipality of Skagway-Haines Borough and Klukwan-Glacier Bay-
Eastern Chichagof Island-City and Borough of Sitka-City and
Borough of Juneau-
Including the cities of Sitka, Hoonah, Tenakee Springs, White
Pass, Juneau, Haines, Gustavus, and Skagway
138 PM AKDT Sun Sep 25 2022


* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be

* WHERE...The following areas, Northern Inner Channels, Central
  Inner Channels and Eastern Gulf Coast. This includes the cities of
  Skagway, Dyea, Haines, Gustavus, Hoonah, Tenakee Springs, Sitka,
  and Juneau.

* WHEN...Through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, other low-lying areas and flood-prone locations.
  Larger basins like the Mendenhall Lake and River will likely
  remain elevated after rain ends. Flooding may occur in poor
  drainage areas along with ponding of water on roadways. Low-water
  crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become
  clogged with debris. Landslides are possible in areas of steep

  - The total rainfall forecast has been reduced but the area
    with greatest amounts remains focused over the northern and
    central panhandle. Additional rainfall between Sunday evening
    and Tuesday night is expected to range from 2 to 3 inches
    near Sitka and up 4.5 inches in the Mendenhall Valley.

  - All residents on or near mountain slopes should be prepared for
  possible landslides.


You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.




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