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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and south of I-40.
ONSET...After 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Along and south of I-40.
ONSET...After 5 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and south of I-40.
ONSET...After 7 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Near the Red River.
ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms across much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the late
afternoon and evening hours today. Large hail to golfball size,
damaging winds to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado will all be
possible, especially with the initial development along and south
of I-40 in southeast Oklahoma along a residual outflow boundary.
The threat will transition to primarily a damaging wind threat as
storms congeal into a complex and move east or southeast toward
western Arkansas during the evening. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible as well, and could lead to some flooding if storms train
over areas that received heavy rainfall from this morning`s
storms.

Heat indices near 100 degrees are forecast this afternoon near the
Red River.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY thru FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday night
mainly to the north of Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat. A thunderstorm complex
is expected to organize over western Kansas and northwest Oklahoma
Sunday afternoon and evening, and will progress east Sunday night.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with this complex as well. A
chance of thunderstorms will persist along the remnant boundary or
front Monday and Monday night primarily across northeast
Oklahoma.

Ridging aloft will strengthen over the region by the middle of
next week. The combination of the intensifying heat and humidity
will bring forecast afternoon heat indices to potentially
dangerous levels on Wednesday and Thursday, and could possibly
extend thru the end of the work week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

Lacy




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