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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
504 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Mid Morning.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.

AREA OF HIGHER CONCERN...West of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Southerly winds increase today with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible
over much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These winds
combined with warmer temperatures and afternoon minimum relative
humidity values generally less than 35 percent will help to
elevate fire weather concerns across parts of eastern Oklahoma
this afternoon. Area of higher fire weather concern is west of
Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma, where limited rainfall has been
observed the past few weeks. Fire weather danger should decrease
this evening as low level moisture increases, though gusty
southerly winds look to continue overnight. Also overnight, with
the increasing moisture, rain showers become possible across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Fire Weather Potential...High
Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy
   Rain Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Rain showers are expected to be ongoing across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas Tuesday morning. Much of this activity is
forecast to exit Tuesday afternoon and evening while a mid level
disturbance lifts through the region. A lull in rain chances
remains possible Wednesday before shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front moves across
the region. Instability and wind shear ahead of the front will
allow for some storms to become strong to severe Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. Also, ahead of the cold front, an
axis of heavy rainfall is forecast to develop into Thursday
night.

Lastly, gusty southerly winds and warmer temperatures are forecast
to continue through Thursday ahead of the front.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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