One product issued by NWS for:
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 458 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 458 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight. TORNADO. RISK...Limited. AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma. ONSET...Ongoing. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Limited. AREA...Eastern Oklahoma. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... Scattered thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon over southeast and south central Oklahoma, and this activity will expand into southeastern Oklahoma this evening. Very unstable air is in place along and south of a warm front across central into southeastern Oklahoma. This instability combined with strong wind shear across the area will support supercells, which will have the potential for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly tornadoes. Other thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over northern Oklahoma, and this activity is expected to spread into parts of northeast Oklahoma. Large hail and strong winds are possible with this activity. These storms may reach northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight. The severe potential may begin to drop as these storms get into northwest Arkansas, but confidence is not high on when this weakening will occur. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential. MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential... Heavy Rain Potential. TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential. WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential. THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... The threat for severe weather increases on Sunday and increases further on Monday. Unstable air is forecast to overspread the entire area as a storm system approaches from the west. The degree of forecast instability and the pattern of the winds aloft suggest the potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes on both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, the greater risk is expected to be more confined to parts of northeast Oklahoma. The higher-end potential on Monday is forecast to be over most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west-central Arkansas. Severe thunderstorm chances continue into early Tuesday as the system exits the area to the east during the day. Low thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of severe weather, are reintroduced late this week after a couple of days of fair weather. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT... Emergency management and response agencies should be ready for 3 days in a row of severe weather operations, and be ready to respond to impacts. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information. $$ 69