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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
511 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.

AREA OF GREATER CONCERN...West of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma,
  Especially Osage and Pawnee Counties.

DISCUSSION...
Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast west of Highway 75
in northeast Oklahoma this afternoon as a dryline moves into
northeast Oklahoma. Behind the boundary, south to southwest winds
gusting up around 35 mph combined with low humidity and warm
temperatures will create Red Flag conditions and near critical
grassland fire spread rates across Osage and Pawnee counties this
afternoon. Across the rest of northeast Oklahoma, gusty winds and
warm temperatures will elevate fire weather concerns. A fire
danger statement is in effect for these locations. Avoid
activities that could create a spark and outdoor burning is not
recommended today.

The dryline retreats back westward this evening helping to
decrease fire weather dangers tonight. However, breezy to gusty
southerly winds are forecast to remain common across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...High Fire Weather Potential...Thunderstorm Potential...High
 Wind Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy
   Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The dryline is forecast to push back into northeast Oklahoma
Monday ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the region
Monday evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity behind the dryline
could elevate fire weather concerns Monday afternoon in northeast
Oklahoma.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances develop Monday into
Tuesday ahead of the cold front moving into the region. The
greater thunderstorm potential remains across southeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas, where a limited severe potential with large
hail the primary threat will be possible Monday afternoon into
Monday night. Severe potentials should weaken from northwest to
southeast after midnight. Precipitation chances taper off and exit
Tuesday evening behind the exiting frontal boundary. Additional
shower and thunderstorm chances quickly return for the second half
of the week as another low pressure system approaches the region.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the system moves through
the region Thursday into Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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